Labour is on course to secure an outright majority at the next General Election, according to a new MRP poll, with the party’s resurgence under Andy Burnham being felt throughout the West Midlands.
In the latest research from Electoral Calculus, carried out on behalf of national communications agency PLMR, voters were asked how they would cast their ballot in a General Election held tomorrow. In the first PLMR poll since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, Labour is forecast to win 28% of the national vote, up from 22% in July and 17% in January.
Reform UK is predicted to win 21% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 18%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, the Green Party 9% and Restore Britain 8%.
On these figures, Labour would claim 353 seats, delivering a majority of 56. The Conservatives would form the official opposition with 90 seats, ahead of Reform on 81.
The Liberal Democrats would win 70 seats, the SNP 28, Plaid Cymru five and the Greens four.
The findings suggest that Andy Burnham’s message of ‘hope’, his approachable personality and recent policy announcements are beginning to resonate with the broader public.
It represents a remarkable reversal from July, when PLMR’s previous poll had Labour and Reform level on 22% and pointed towards a hung parliament. Reform has now shed ten points since January, with Restore Britain making inroads into its support base.
In June last year, Reform was on course to take 35 of the 39 parliamentary seats across Birmingham, the Black Country, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire and Worcestershire. The new poll predicts it would win just seven of them.
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Labour is now projected to win 23 of these seats, including all three in Coventry, taking Birmingham Perry Barr from an independent and Sutton Coldfield from the Conservatives. The Conservatives would hold seven, with one each for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
Andy Burnham’s party now commands 27% of the vote in the West Midlands, with Reform on 25%, the Conservatives on 20%, Restore Britain and the Greens on 9% each and the Liberal Democrats on 7%.
The poll also questioned respondents on who should hold the greatest influence over local services such as transport, housing and schools. In the West Midlands, 55% favoured their local council, 14% a regional mayor or combined authority and 9% the UK Government, while 23% were undecided.
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Responding to the findings, Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said:. “Three months ago, this looked like a two-horse race between Labour and Reform heading for a hung Parliament. Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street has changed that picture entirely, and Labour is now on course for a working majority.
“The West Midlands shows how quickly things can move. Reform was once forecast to sweep almost every seat from Birmingham and Coventry to Warwickshire and Worcestershire, yet it is now predicted to win just seven of them, mostly in the Black Country.”
Andy Burnham has built his reputation on devolution, and more than half of people in the West Midlands told us their local council should have the biggest say over local services. Regional leaders, local authorities and businesses will be looking to the new government to back that with real powers, long-term funding and investment in the places that have too often felt overlooked.
“Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our figures show a remarkable reversal of fortune for Labour under Andy Burnham, with the party now predicted to win 353 seats, an outright majority. Burnham has used clear left-of-centre rhetoric to win back those voters who drifted to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens when Keir Starmer was leader, rather than chasing Reform voters.
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“The right, by contrast, remains split. Restore Britain would win very few seats, but it is cutting into Reform’s vote and leaving it with fewer than 100 seats – less than the Conservatives. A pact between the Conservatives and Reform would give them just 171 seats, not even half of Labour’s 353. Under the first-past-the-post system the side that unites first wins and Andy Burnham clearly understands that and is acting on it.”
Labour on Course for Outright Majority at Next General Election, Poll Suggests
Labour could be heading towards another outright parliamentary majority at the next UK General Election, according to a new polling assessment, raising fresh questions about the political balance between the governing party, the Conservatives and the growing Reform UK movement.
The prospect of Labour securing enough seats to govern alone would represent a significant development in Britain’s increasingly unpredictable political landscape. After years of political turbulence, changing party loyalties and growing frustration over living costs and public services, the next election is likely to test whether voters remain willing to give Labour the opportunity to continue its programme or whether support shifts towards its rivals.
However, a poll suggesting that Labour is on course for a majority should not be mistaken for a prediction of a guaranteed election result. Voting-intention surveys and seat projections are snapshots based on particular assumptions, and the outcome can change considerably before polling day. The important question is what the findings reveal about public attitudes, the government’s challenges and the strategies its opponents may adopt.
Labour’s path towards another parliamentary majority
An outright majority would allow Labour to govern without relying on other parties to pass legislation in the House of Commons. That would give the government greater freedom to advance its domestic programme, although it would still face scrutiny from Parliament, pressure from its own MPs and constraints imposed by economic conditions.
For Labour, the prospect of retaining a majority would depend on its ability to maintain support across a diverse range of constituencies. Its electoral coalition includes voters motivated by public services, economic stability, workers’ rights, housing and the desire for political change. These priorities do not always point in the same direction.
Some voters may judge the government primarily on whether it improves the performance of the NHS and reduces waiting times. Others may focus on taxation, wages, employment opportunities or the cost of housing. In areas where immigration is a dominant issue, Labour’s approach to border management and asylum policy may have a particularly significant influence on voting intentions.
The party therefore faces the challenge of demonstrating progress on several fronts simultaneously. A government can make policy changes that satisfy one section of its support base while disappointing another.
The difference between winning votes nationally and securing a parliamentary majority is also crucial. Under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, parties win individual constituencies rather than seats in proportion to their overall share of the vote. The geographical distribution of support can therefore matter as much as the national headline figure.
A relatively modest shift in voting intentions can have a substantial impact on seats in closely contested constituencies. Conversely, a party can attract a sizeable national vote without translating that support into a comparable number of MPs.
Any assessment of Labour’s prospects must take these factors into account.
Why polling projections require careful interpretation
Opinion polls play an important role in political debate, but different surveys can produce different pictures of the same election landscape. Pollsters use varying methodologies, sample designs and statistical adjustments, while seat projections must estimate how national or regional voting patterns would translate into constituency results.
A poll showing Labour ahead does not necessarily mean that the party is certain to win a majority. The scale of its lead, the strength of its support in marginal constituencies and the performance of competing parties all influence the possible outcome.
The date of the survey is equally important. Public attitudes can change in response to economic announcements, government decisions, political controversies and international events. A poll conducted months before an election may offer useful insight into current sentiment but cannot establish what voters will do on polling day.
It is also necessary to distinguish between voting-intention polling and modelled seat projections. The former asks respondents which party they would support, while the latter attempts to estimate how those preferences might translate into parliamentary representation.
Without the specific poll, its fieldwork dates and its methodology, the headline alone is not enough to determine how robust the projected majority is. The finding should therefore be treated as an indication of one possible electoral scenario rather than a definitive forecast.
Reform UK presents a challenge to the traditional parties
One of the most important questions surrounding the next election is the impact of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage. The party has sought to attract voters dissatisfied with the established political system, particularly those concerned about immigration, national sovereignty, taxation and the performance of public institutions.
Reform’s rise has created difficulties for both Labour and the Conservatives. Its appeal among some former Conservative voters can complicate the opposition’s efforts to challenge the government, while its criticism of Labour gives dissatisfied voters another option beyond the traditional parties.
For Labour, the situation is complicated because Reform’s support is not confined to one clearly defined demographic or region. Its electoral appeal can overlap with different voter groups for different reasons, including economic frustration, concerns about migration and a desire for more direct political change.
The effect on constituency results will depend on where Reform’s support is concentrated and how its candidates perform against Labour and Conservative opponents. If the party divides the vote in closely contested seats, the consequences could be significant, but those effects cannot be assumed to be identical across the country.
Reform’s own challenge is to convert national attention into a durable electoral organisation, with candidates, local campaigning networks and policies capable of withstanding detailed scrutiny.
The next election will test whether its support can translate into parliamentary representation on a scale that reshapes the relationship between the major parties.
The Conservatives face questions about their future direction
The Conservative Party also faces a difficult task as it seeks to rebuild its position after losing office. Its strategy must address voters who have moved towards Reform while remaining credible to those who prefer a more traditional Conservative approach.
This creates a strategic dilemma. A stronger emphasis on immigration and national identity may appeal to some voters but risk alienating others who prioritise economic competence, public services or a more moderate political tone.