Kemi Badenoch has made the Conservatives a sensible party again (Image: Getty)
Kemi Badenoch is a long way from becoming Prime Minister. Many opinion polls still suggest the Conservatives are the third most popular party in the country, behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, although they are roughly level with Labour. The latest YouGov survey found 24% of voters backed Reform with 19% supporting Labour and 18% planning to vote Conservative.
But there’s a long way to go before the next election, which might not come until 2029. And crusading Kemi is looking increasingly impressive. Here are five reasons why it might be time to give the Tories another chance – and put Kemi in Number 10.
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The Conservatives really have changed
Towards the end of the last Conservative government, the party was in a state of chaos. There were constant changes of leadership, and some disastrous decisions such as the “mini-budget” overseen by former Prime Minister Liz Truss.
But Kemi has got a grip on her party. There’s no more talk of leadership challenges and she’s refusing to make promises she can’t keep.
It might take voters a long time to forgive the Conservatives for the mistakes they made last time – understandably so. But they really are under new management today.
The policies are sensible
Tories have instituted what they call a “golden rule” to manage the economy. Yes, they want to get taxes down – but only when it can be afforded. So they will aim to cut spending, and allow only half of the savings they make to be spent on tax cuts. The other half goes on reducing the Treasury’s massive deficit.
It ensures there can be no promises that terrify the financial markets – and which voters can’t believe.
But when they can afford it, they will abolish stamp duty, making it easier for millions to buy a home.
They have accepted that previous Tory governments made a massive mistake by allowing immigration to soar. They don’t just want to stop small boats – they also have plans to cut the numbers allowed to settle in the UK legally too.
Kemi is already setting the agenda
It was Kemi Badenoch – not Reform UK leader Nigel Farage – that forced the Government to U-turn over limiting winter fuel payments (thanks also to an Express campaign), to support farmers hit by inheritance tax increases, to provide more help to struggling pubs and to release the Mandelson files.
She takes on Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs in the Commons each week, and wins.
It’s true that when she first started, Kemi struggled with being leader. It took her time to find her feet. But today, she’s hitting the ball for six again and again.
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The Conservatives are united
Tories have been hit by a series of defections, and they did hurt. When someone like Robert Jenrick chooses to switch to Reform, it’s a vote of confidence in Nigel Farage’s party.
But there are also some benefits for the Conservatives if people who aren’t happy choose to leave.
The team that remain in the Tories are fully behind Kemi Badenoch. There’s no talk of “letters” being sent demanding that she resign, as we used to see with the Conservative Party under past leaders.
And it’s not a bad team. If you wanted someone sensible to look after your pension, you could do a lot worse than Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride. There are some old hands, like Shadow Housing Secretary James Cleverly, and some rising stars, like Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy.
There’s a long way to go
Many Express readers may want Sir Keir Starmer and his failing Labour government gone – and will be asking themselves who is best placed to remove them.
If you look at opinion polls today, the answer appears to be Reform.
But the Tories aren’t that far behind. It’s perfectly possible that by the time polling day comes, perhaps more than three years in the future, Kemi will have become the obvious candidate to replace Sir Keir in Number 10.
The Tories Are Back – 5 Reasons Why Voting Conservative Again Isn’t Such a Crazy Idea
For much of the past two years, the Conservative Party appeared to be fighting for political survival. After its historic defeat at the 2024 general election, the Tories lost support to Reform UK, suffered heavy losses in local elections and struggled to establish a clear identity under leader Kemi Badenoch.
Yet British politics has changed rapidly.
The latest YouGov polling has placed the Conservatives on 21 per cent, level with Reform UK and just two points behind Labour, which is on 23 per cent. It is the first time in 18 months that YouGov has recorded the Conservatives level with Reform.
That does not mean the Conservatives have recovered completely, nor does it establish what would happen at a general election. But it does indicate that the party’s position has changed significantly from the period when Reform appeared to dominate the political right.
There are at least five reasons why some voters who previously abandoned the Conservatives may now be reconsidering them.
1. Conservative support is beginning to recover from its historic low
The first reason is simply that the electoral picture is no longer as one-sided as it appeared previously.
The Conservatives’ 2024 result was their worst general-election performance in their near two-century history. The party lost hundreds of seats and saw millions of voters move elsewhere.
A major YouGov voter study found that 26 per cent of people who voted Conservative in 2024 subsequently switched to Reform UK. A further 10 per cent became unsure about their voting intention, while 7 per cent moved towards Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens.
The significance of the latest polling is therefore that some of the voters who left the Conservatives have not necessarily become permanently aligned with another party.
Indeed, YouGov found that 65 per cent of Conservative defectors would consider voting Conservative again.
That does not mean all those voters are returning. It does, however, suggest that the Conservative electorate is not necessarily fixed at its post-election low.
For Kemi Badenoch, the immediate political challenge is to convert that openness into renewed support while also persuading voters who have moved to Reform that the Conservatives can address their concerns.
2. Reform’s rise has created a different political calculation
For more than a year, Reform UK was frequently ahead of the Conservatives in national polling.
That transformed the political landscape on the right.
Many former Conservative voters moved to Reform because they believed the Conservatives had failed to deliver on issues such as immigration, public services and the economy.
YouGov’s voter research found that immigration was especially important among Conservative voters who switched to Reform. Some 43 per cent of those defectors said a lack of trust in the Conservatives to manage immigration was one of the main reasons they had moved away.
But Reform’s rise has also created a new question for right-leaning voters: what should happen to their vote if the Conservatives and Reform are competing for the same electorate?
Recent polling suggests that the answer is becoming less straightforward.
YouGov’s latest figures put both parties on 21 per cent. Meanwhile, an MRP model discussed by ConservativeHome projected Labour on 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130 and Reform on 123 in a hypothetical general election held under the model’s assumptions. The figures illustrate the difference between national vote share and constituency outcomes; they are not an election result or a forecast of what will happen.
This could encourage some voters to look again at the Conservatives as a party capable of winning individual constituencies rather than simply serving as an alternative to Labour.
3. The Conservatives are attempting to rebuild a policy platform
The third reason concerns policy.
Under Badenoch, the Conservatives have been working to establish a programme that distinguishes the party from both Labour and Reform.
The party’s current policy programme includes proposals covering welfare, employment, constitutional reform, cultural policy and the role of the state.
The Conservatives say they have prepared legislation that could be introduced early in a future Conservative government, including a Welfare Reform Bill, a Get Britain Working Bill and a Constitution Restoration Bill.
The party has also announced policies on immigration and integration, including a proposal to ban election materials in foreign languages and the establishment of a Cultural and Integration Commission.
These policies are designed to address concerns among voters who believe the Conservatives previously failed to maintain sufficiently clear positions on national identity, immigration and the role of government.
However, the policy programme also creates an obvious test for the party: voters who are considering returning to the Conservatives will want to know whether the proposals are credible, affordable and likely to be implemented.
The party’s previous period in government remains an important part of the debate.
4. Some voters remain open to a Conservative return
A fourth reason is the continuing fluidity of the Conservative electorate.
Research by the Centre for Policy Studies found that only 18 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters said they could never vote Conservative again, while 52 per cent of the electorate said they were theoretically open to voting Conservative.
This is important because the Conservative Party does not necessarily need to persuade every Reform voter to return.
It needs to rebuild enough support among voters who are politically available to it.
The YouGov voter study similarly found that many former Conservatives had not completely rejected the party. Some had moved to Reform because of particular concerns, while others had become undecided.
The reasons for leaving were also revealing.
Among Conservative defectors, 36 per cent said they believed the party had not learned from its defeat, while 27 per cent said the party had performed badly or behaved poorly in government. Another 24 per cent cited uncertainty over whether the Conservatives would keep their promises.
These findings point to a problem that is partly about trust rather than ideology.
A voter can agree with Conservative policies but still decide not to vote Conservative because they do not trust the party to deliver them.
For Badenoch, rebuilding credibility may therefore be just as important as announcing new policies.
5. The political centre-right remains divided
The fifth reason is the fragmentation of Britain’s political right.
The Conservatives are no longer competing only against Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
They are also competing against Reform UK, which has successfully attracted many former Conservative voters.
At the same time, the emergence of other parties and changing tactical-voting behaviour means that constituency contests can produce very different outcomes from national polling.
Recent research reported by The Guardian suggests that tactical voting could substantially change the distribution of seats if voters decide to support whichever party is best placed locally to defeat Reform. The analysis emphasises that these are hypothetical scenarios rather than predictions.
For Conservative voters, this creates a strategic dilemma.
Some may see Reform as the stronger vehicle for issues such as immigration and national sovereignty. Others may regard the Conservatives as the more established route to a centre-right government.
Still others may simply vote for whichever candidate they believe is best positioned in their constituency.
The Conservatives therefore have to compete not only for ideological loyalty but also for voters who are making practical decisions about how their vote will translate into parliamentary representation.
The biggest problem remains trust
Despite the recent improvement in polling, the Conservatives still face substantial challenges.
Their 2024 defeat remains a major part of their political history. Many former supporters continue to question the party’s record in government, while Reform continues to compete aggressively for voters who want tougher policies on immigration and public spending.
The YouGov study found that immigration, defence, the cost of living, the NHS and the wider economy remain important concerns among former Conservative voters.
This means the Conservatives cannot assume that a modest rise in polling will automatically restore their previous coalition.
They have to demonstrate that their current programme responds to the reasons voters left in the first place.
There is also the question of leadership.
Badenoch has spent much of her leadership attempting to define a political identity for a party that suffered a historic defeat. Whether voters regard that identity as credible will ultimately depend on how they assess her policies, communication and performance over time.
A changing political landscape
The phrase “the Tories are back” should therefore be treated cautiously.
The latest numbers show a Conservative Party that is once again competitive in national polling, not one that has already returned to government.
At 21 per cent, the Conservatives remain well below the vote share they achieved in previous general elections. Labour is still ahead in the latest YouGov poll, while Reform remains level with the Conservatives.
But the change is politically significant.
For months, the Conservatives faced the possibility that Reform could permanently replace them as the dominant party on the British right. The latest evidence suggests that possibility is not settled.
Former Conservative voters are still politically fluid. Some Reform supporters remain open to Badenoch’s party. And tactical voting could make constituency-level competition particularly unpredictable.
For the Conservatives, the opportunity is therefore real but conditional.
They must rebuild trust, demonstrate policy credibility and convince former supporters that voting Conservative can once again represent their political priorities.
For voters, meanwhile, the decision is likely to depend on the issues they consider most important: immigration, the economy, the NHS, welfare, defence, taxation, public services and the role of the state.
The latest polling does not tell voters which party they should support. What it does show is that the Conservative Party has not disappeared from the political contest.
After one of the deepest defeats in its history, the party is once again polling level with Reform and within striking distance of Labour in a national survey.
Whether that represents a temporary shift or the beginning of a more durable Conservative recovery will depend on what happens next.
For now, however, the political right remains divided, the electorate remains fluid, and the Conservatives have once again become a significant part of the conversation about Britain’s political future.