Keir Starmer risks losing a Labour stronghold (Image: Getty)

Goodwin attacked rivals before leaving campaign launch (Image: Getty)

Now, I am not so naive as to assume that elections are all rosy – one only has to turn on the television on any given day to see MPs fighting each other like rats in a sack. But this one seems to have rapidly descended to new depths of backbiting, compared to others of their kind. So we are left to ask, have political campaigns just got nastier?

None of three main contenders in this contest can consider their hands entirely clean. At his opening speech to announce his anointment as Nigel Farage‘s chosen, Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin was quick to lampoon the Green Party’s candidate as a danger, painting them as a boogieman to be feared and ridiculed in equal measure.

Soon, we learned that Green Party canvassers had been ejected from an assisted living facility, that their boss supposedly wanted to shoot everyone up with heroin – although he insists his drugs policy is about saving lives – and that their candidate had the gall to go on holiday.

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Gorton contest descends into bitter briefing war (Image: Getty)

I have worked in by-elections – on the other side of the fence. Yes, I once did a bit of campaigning myself, working for one of the parties (not Labour). We informed the media that Labour candidates did not live in the seats they contested, and once produced evidence that one of them was ‘putting on’ an accent. But we never did anything like this.

Elections are tense – they always have been. And for the teams working them, the stakes can feel far higher than they truly are. Pressure from campaign offices in London is often immense, as staff are made to feel that every action they take could be the make or break of a campaign. But such politics often forces candidates to engage in mean-spirited campaigning, and that can be to the detriment of the people they hope to serve.

So call me old fashioned – but perhaps the next by-election will focus a little more on local issues, and a little less on what the candidates had for breakfast, wrote on twitter ten years ago, or where they went on holiday in the noughties.

Keir Starmer’s Biggest Battle Yet – The Political Crisis That Reached New Depths

Keir Starmer’s final months as Britain’s prime minister were marked by a political struggle that increasingly went beyond disagreements over individual policies. Questions about leadership, public confidence, Labour’s direction and the party’s electoral prospects combined to create one of the most difficult periods of his premiership.

Starmer eventually left Downing Street on 20 July 2026, when Andy Burnham became prime minister. The change brought an immediate shift in Labour’s political fortunes, with several polls recording an improvement in the party’s position after Burnham took office.

Against that background, claims that Starmer was facing his “biggest battle yet” should be understood as descriptions of the political crisis surrounding his final period in office rather than as a current assessment of the prime minister.

The problems facing Labour were substantial. The party had entered government with a large parliamentary majority after the 2024 general election, but its popularity subsequently came under pressure. Immigration, the economy, public services and internal Labour disagreements all became politically significant.

The battle over public confidence

One of Starmer’s central difficulties was the gap between Labour’s large parliamentary majority and the level of dissatisfaction recorded in subsequent polling.

By the final months of his premiership, surveys repeatedly indicated that many voters were dissatisfied with the way the country was being governed. That dissatisfaction was not confined to one issue.

The cost of living remained important, while the NHS, taxation, immigration and economic growth all featured heavily in political debate.

The problem for Starmer was that Labour’s electoral advantage from 2024 did not necessarily translate into sustained support during government.

Later polling illustrates the scale of the change. Ipsos reported in September 2026 that seven in ten people remained dissatisfied with the way the government was running the country, even after Burnham had replaced Starmer.

That does not establish that dissatisfaction was caused by Starmer personally. It does, however, demonstrate that Labour continued to face a broader problem of public confidence after the change of leadership.

Immigration became a defining battleground

Few issues proved more difficult for Starmer than immigration.

Labour entered office promising to tackle illegal migration and “smash the gangs” responsible for organising small-boat crossings across the Channel.

The Government subsequently introduced Border Security Command and strengthened cooperation with France. Yet the issue remained politically contentious because small boats continued to arrive.

For Labour’s critics, every successful crossing became evidence that the Government had not achieved its stated objective.

Reform UK made immigration one of its central political attacks on Starmer. Nigel Farage repeatedly argued that the Government was failing to control Britain’s borders, while Zia Yusuf advocated much tougher measures, including expanded deportations and military involvement in stopping boats.

The debate became particularly intense because immigration was not simply a question of border management. It was increasingly connected to asylum accommodation, welfare spending, housing and pressure on public services.

The political impact of Reform

Reform UK’s rise created another problem for Labour.

The party’s challenge was not limited to taking votes directly from Labour. Reform’s growth changed the wider political environment by putting pressure on both Labour and the Conservatives.

Polling during 2026 repeatedly showed Reform competing closely with the established parties.

However, the picture changed following Starmer’s departure.

An Ipsos poll conducted between 10 and 15 September put Labour on 27%, Reform on 23%, the Conservatives on 21%, the Greens on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on 8%. Ipsos also found that Andy Burnham was preferred to Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch as prime minister.

These are polling measurements, not election results or predictions. They nevertheless demonstrate how dramatically the political landscape changed after Starmer left office.

Starmer’s leadership problem

Leadership became an increasingly important part of the debate.

Starmer had won the 2024 general election with a large Commons majority, but his personal approval ratings subsequently deteriorated.

Survation’s August 2026 analysis noted that Starmer had recorded a net approval rating of minus 55 in its final poll asking about him on 30 June. By contrast, Burnham recorded a significantly stronger rating after becoming Labour leader and prime minister.

The difference was politically significant.

It suggested that Labour’s difficulties were not necessarily permanent characteristics of the party. A change of leader produced a measurable shift in public attitudes, although whether that improvement would last remained uncertain.

The transition also meant that arguments about Starmer’s leadership became partly historical rather than current political questions.

Internal pressure on Labour

Starmer also faced pressure from within his own party.

Labour contains competing traditions and priorities. Some MPs and activists wanted a stronger emphasis on public spending and workers’ rights, while others prioritised fiscal restraint, economic growth and public-sector reform.

Immigration created another source of disagreement.

The Government attempted to combine tighter border enforcement with commitments to international refugee law. Critics on the right argued that the approach was insufficiently restrictive, while critics on the left sometimes argued that Labour was moving too far towards the rhetoric of its political opponents.

This left the leadership attempting to maintain support across different parts of the party while also responding to voters outside Labour’s traditional base.

The economy and living standards

Economic policy was another major test.

Labour entered government promising to improve growth and rebuild public services, but the Government faced difficult fiscal choices.

Tax rises, public spending pressures and weak economic growth created tensions between Labour’s promises and the constraints facing the Treasury.

For many voters, however, the important question was less about economic theory and more about household finances.

Mortgage costs, rents, food prices and energy bills all affected perceptions of whether the Government was improving living standards.

This helps explain why political arguments about immigration and welfare often became linked to economic concerns. Reform, Conservatives and Labour all attempted to present their policies as answers to the pressures facing ordinary households, although they proposed very different solutions.

Was Starmer’s departure inevitable?

The word “inevitable” would be misleading.

Starmer remained prime minister until July 2026 and had won a substantial Commons majority less than two years earlier. There was therefore no straightforward constitutional mechanism requiring him to leave office before the end of the Parliament.

His departure followed a wider political deterioration and the decision within Labour to change leadership.

The subsequent improvement in some polling measures suggests that the change was politically consequential, but it does not prove that every problem Labour experienced was attributable to Starmer himself.

Nor does it establish that Burnham’s improved ratings will necessarily translate into an election victory. Polling reflects opinions at a particular moment and can change significantly.

A new political landscape

The clearest evidence of how much the political environment changed after Starmer is the contrast between polling before and after his departure.

In September, YouGov’s tactical-voting research found that voters’ willingness to support parties strategically had changed significantly compared with earlier in the year. YouGov noted that Labour had replaced Starmer with Burnham and that Reform had experienced a succession of controversies.

A separate Guardian report based on a large poll suggested that tactical voting could substantially affect the distribution of seats at a future general election.

These findings underline the uncertainty of the current political environment.

Starmer’s problems should therefore not be viewed simply as a personal story. His premiership coincided with a broader fragmentation of British politics, with Labour, Reform, Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats competing for different sections of an increasingly fluid electorate.

The meaning of the “biggest battle”

The “biggest battle” surrounding Starmer was ultimately a combination of several battles.

There was the battle to maintain public confidence.

There was the struggle to demonstrate that Labour could improve living standards while managing difficult public finances.

There was the continuing challenge of illegal migration and asylum.

There was pressure from Reform on Labour’s electoral coalition.

And there was the internal question of what Labour should represent after returning to government.

The phrase “sunk to new depths” is an evaluative political description rather than an objective measurement. The available evidence does show that Starmer’s final period in office was accompanied by poor personal approval ratings and significant political pressure. But it also shows that Labour remained a major political force and that the situation changed rapidly after the leadership transition.

What remains of Starmer’s legacy?

Assessing Starmer’s legacy will ultimately depend on more than the circumstances of his departure.

His government won a large parliamentary majority, pursued reforms across the NHS and public services, changed aspects of immigration policy and attempted to reshape Britain’s economic strategy.

At the same time, his premiership ended amid substantial public dissatisfaction and a significant debate within Labour about its political direction.

The change to Burnham therefore provides an unusually clear test of how much of Labour’s problem was associated with one leader and how much reflected deeper structural issues.

Early evidence showed an improvement in Labour’s polling position after the leadership change. But September polling also showed that large numbers of voters remained dissatisfied with the government’s performance.

The political story is therefore not simply that Starmer “lost” a single battle. His final period in Downing Street reflected a much broader struggle over Labour’s identity, Britain’s economic direction and the future shape of the country’s increasingly fragmented party system.

Starmer is now outside Downing Street, but the questions that dominated the end of his premiership have not disappeared. Immigration remains contested, public dissatisfaction remains significant and Reform continues to challenge the established parties.

For Labour, the central question is no longer whether Starmer can reverse his fortunes as prime minister. That chapter has ended. The question is whether the party’s new leadership can address the problems that contributed to his departure while maintaining the support necessary to govern effectively.

That makes the aftermath of Starmer’s premiership almost as politically important as the crisis that brought it to an end.

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