People keep on voting for change – maybe this time they’ll get it from Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
The secret of Nigel Farage’s success has been revealed – by an unlikely source. Reform UK remains the most popular party in the UK according to opinion polls, although the outcome of the next general election is still uncertain. Mr Farage is known for his campaigns against the EU, and Reform UK is seen as the party most likely to bring down immigration.
But detailed research, asking Reform supporters why they back the party, has found this doesn’t quite explain the party’s appeal. What’s turned many voters against the traditional parties, such as Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, is a sense that their local communities are going downhill. Local shops are closing. The streets are rundown. People don’t feel safe going out at night. The local supermarket is putting security tags on everything, because shoplifting has become commonplace.
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And there’s a sense that things are getting worse – not better. In particular, voters fear that good jobs are drying up, and their children or grandchildren will have worse lives than they did.
There’s a lazy tendency to imagine some sort of battle is taking place between the generations, with older people hoarding all the wealth at the expense of the young. The truth is that older generations want younger people to have a bright future, and are furious that it doesn’t seem to be on offer.
Many younger workers, meanwhile, are struggling with sky-high income tax payments caused by so-called student loan repayments, which are really just a stealth tax on their wages.
The rot set in back in 2008, when the banking crisis ruined the economy. More recently, we’ve had Covid, then the Ukraine war and now the war in Iran, all causing huge shocks to our standard of living. Governments tried to deal with the problems by borrowing huge sums of money, and the Treasury now spends billions just servicing its massive debt.
How have voters responded? The vote for Brexit in 2016 was a vote for change. So was Boris Johnson’s landslide election win in 2019, when he won over former Labour voters in “red wall” seats. And so, in fact, was the surge of support for Jeremy Corbyn, when he was Labour leader, and support for the Green Party today.
People keep on voting for change, but they are not getting it. And one of the beneficiaries is Mr Farage. A lot of voters hope he is the man who will finally get a grip.
The unlikely source who has analysed this is a Labour MP called Liam Byrne, previously a Treasury Minister in Gordon Brown’s Labour government.
He’s set out his theories in a book called Why Populists Are Winning. As you can tell from the title, he’s not a fan of Mr Farage. The word “populist” is rarely used as a compliment.
But his explanation for why many voters have lost faith in the traditional parties – including the one he is a member of – is spot on.
As for Reform, it remains to be seen what the future holds. A recent poll by Opinium suggested 27% of voters are planning to back Nigel Farage’s party, ahead of second-place Labour on 21%.
But the most recent YouGov poll has Reform on 23% and Labour on 19%, giving Reform UK a lead of just 4%.
If those figures are correct, it would suggest Reform is not certain to win the next election. But Nigel knows this. He’s going to be fighting hard for every vote.
The real reason Brits are ready to vote for Farage – and it’s nothing to do with Brexit
Nigel Farage has spent much of his political career associated with one defining issue: Britain’s departure from the European Union.
But the political landscape facing Farage and Reform UK in 2026 is increasingly different from the one that made him internationally famous.
Britain has now been outside the EU for several years. The arguments that dominated the 2016 referendum have become less central to everyday political debate, while immigration, the cost of living, public services, defence and distrust of established political parties have moved to the forefront.
Recent polling suggests that if voters are considering Reform UK today, Brexit is not necessarily the main reason.
Instead, immigration appears to be the most important factor behind the party’s current appeal.
That does not mean Brexit is irrelevant. Farage’s political identity remains inseparable from the referendum campaign and his long-standing Euroscepticism. But the evidence from current Reform voters suggests that the party’s support is now being driven by a broader set of concerns — and particularly by attitudes towards immigration and dissatisfaction with the political establishment.
Immigration is at the centre
YouGov’s major 2026 voter study provides some of the clearest evidence of what is attracting people to Reform UK.
The survey found that 54 per cent of current Reform supporters said trusting the party to manage immigration was one of the reasons that most appealed to them.
Even more strikingly, 86 per cent of Reform supporters identified immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain.
That was roughly twice the proportion among the public as a whole in the YouGov study.
The figures suggest that immigration has become considerably more than one policy issue among many for Reform’s electoral coalition.
It is a central dividing line between the party and its competitors.
This is particularly important because Reform’s supporters are not all drawn from the same political background.
YouGov found that the party’s coalition includes people who voted Reform in 2024, former Conservative voters who have subsequently moved to Reform, and a smaller group of former Labour voters.
Across these groups, immigration remained the strongest common concern.
Among voters who moved from the Conservatives to Reform, 92 per cent said they trusted Reform more than the Conservatives to manage immigration.
That helps explain why Farage can attract support from voters who previously had little connection with his political movement.
It is also about dissatisfaction
Immigration alone does not explain the phenomenon.
YouGov found that 35 to 39 per cent of current Reform supporters regarded the party’s perceived honesty about Britain’s problems and its promise to represent political change as important reasons for backing it.
Between 23 and 25 per cent cited the belief that Reform was the only party standing up for people like them or was closest to their values.
This points towards a broader explanation.
Some voters may be attracted to Reform because of what the party proposes. Others may be motivated by dissatisfaction with the established parties.
Indeed, 22 per cent of Reform supporters told YouGov that one reason for backing the party was that they considered the alternatives worse.
Among former Labour voters who have moved towards Reform, that proportion was higher, at 31 per cent.
That distinction matters.
It suggests that not every Reform voter is necessarily a long-term ideological supporter of Farage or his party. Some are making a more conditional choice based on dissatisfaction with Labour, the Conservatives or the political system more generally.
The cost of living matters too
Another important factor is the economy.
For Reform supporters, the cost of living ranked behind immigration among the most important issues facing the country.
YouGov found that between 34 and 38 per cent of Reform supporters considered the cost of living one of the most pressing problems.
For voters who had moved from Labour to Reform, the figure was particularly high, reaching 51 per cent.
That is significant because it shows that Reform’s coalition is not simply organised around questions of national identity or immigration.
Economic pressure is also helping shape political choices.
Household finances, taxation, energy bills, housing costs and the availability of public services all contribute to voters’ perceptions of whether the political system is working for them.
The former Labour voters now considering Reform are particularly revealing in this respect.
According to YouGov, they are less focused on defence and taxation than other parts of Reform’s coalition, while being more likely to identify the NHS and the cost of living as major concerns.
That makes Reform’s growing reach across traditional party boundaries easier to understand.
Farage himself still matters
Although Brexit may no longer be the central explanation, Farage remains an important part of the Reform brand.
YouGov’s July study found that 91 per cent of Reform voters had a favourable opinion of Farage, including 49 per cent who viewed him very favourably.
That is substantially stronger than his standing among the wider electorate.
It demonstrates that the party and its leader remain closely connected in the minds of their supporters.
However, there is an important distinction between Farage’s appeal to Reform voters and his broader popularity.
Separate YouGov research published in September found that public perceptions of Farage had become considerably more negative. Only 19 per cent of Britons said he looked like a prime minister in waiting, while 66 per cent disagreed.
The same research found that many voters associated Farage with negative characteristics, although Reform supporters were much more likely to describe him positively.
In other words, Farage’s political strength does not necessarily come from universal popularity.
His support is highly concentrated among people who already identify strongly with the political direction represented by Reform.
Brexit has changed as an issue
The changing importance of Brexit is particularly striking when compared with public attitudes towards Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Ten years after the referendum, YouGov found that 57 per cent of Britons believed the decision to leave the EU was wrong, while 55 per cent said they would support rejoining the EU under certain conditions.
At the same time, 59 per cent supported a closer relationship with the EU without necessarily returning to full membership.
Those figures demonstrate how much the political environment has changed since 2016.
Farage’s historic achievement was helping turn Britain’s relationship with the EU into the dominant political question of an era.
Today, voters are confronting different questions.
How should immigration be controlled?
How should the NHS be funded?
How can household living standards improve?
How should Britain respond to international security threats?
How much taxation can households and businesses sustain?
And perhaps most importantly, which political institutions and parties do voters believe can deliver change?
These questions now compete with — and often overshadow — the old Brexit divide.
Reform’s coalition is not completely secure
There is another reason to be cautious about describing Reform’s support as a simple continuation of the Brexit movement.
YouGov’s research shows that many Reform voters remain open to other parties.
Only 29 per cent of current Reform supporters said they would exclusively consider voting for Reform among the major parties surveyed.
Forty per cent said they would consider the Conservatives, while 43 per cent were also open to considering Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain.
Among former Conservative voters who moved to Reform, 73 per cent said they could consider returning to the Conservatives.
That suggests a significant portion of Reform’s support remains politically fluid.
It also means that the party’s current position cannot automatically be interpreted as a permanent realignment of British politics.
The issues bringing voters to Reform may be powerful, but political loyalties can change as governments, leaders and circumstances change.
A different kind of Farage politics
The transformation is therefore not necessarily that Farage has abandoned Brexit.
Rather, the political market around him has changed.
The central question for many voters is no longer whether Britain should leave the European Union. Britain has already left.
The argument has moved towards what should happen next.
Reform has attempted to occupy that space by combining restrictive immigration policies, opposition to elements of the established political consensus, promises to reduce government spending and a strong emphasis on national sovereignty.
Farage’s personal political style reinforces the message.
Supporters frequently regard him as direct, determined and willing to challenge established politicians. Critics see the same style very differently.
The important point is that the appeal is not identical across the electorate.
What the polling really shows
So, is the “real reason” Britons are ready to vote for Farage unrelated to Brexit?
The evidence suggests a more complicated answer.
Brexit remains part of Farage’s political identity, but current Reform support is much more directly associated with contemporary issues.
Immigration stands out above all others. Cost-of-living pressures, dissatisfaction with established parties, perceptions of political honesty and the desire for change also feature prominently.
Farage himself remains central to the party’s appeal among its supporters, but his wider public image is much more contested.
And Reform’s coalition contains voters with very different political histories, including former Conservatives and former Labour supporters.
That is perhaps the most important development.
The Reform voter of 2026 cannot simply be described as a Brexit voter from 2016.
Some are former Conservative voters primarily concerned about immigration. Some are former Labour voters frustrated about living standards and public services. Others are long-standing Reform supporters who continue to identify strongly with Farage.
What unites them is not necessarily a single view of Brexit.
It is a set of concerns about where Britain is heading and whether established parties have adequately addressed those concerns.
That makes Reform’s rise a broader political phenomenon than the Brexit movement that created Farage’s national profile.
And it also explains why the future of his party may depend less on reopening the arguments of 2016 and more on how convincingly it addresses the problems voters say matter to them now.