Nigel Farage, pictured here launching Reform’s 2026 local election campaign, will be pleased at the (Image: Getty)
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has triumphed in another pair of council by-elections, as Labour crashed to a devastating defeat by the Greens. The insurgent party stormed to victory in the Tottingham ward on Bury Council, coming from nothing to win 39.5% of the vote and wrest the seat from the Conservatives, whose vote share slumped by 19.1%.
And to prove it is not just winning votes from the Tories, Reform also gained the Wigmore ward in Luton from the Liberal Democrats with 32.9% of the vote. The Lib Dems’ 30.4% was a 24.2% drop from the last time an election was contested in the seat. The Greens, meanwhile, gave Labour a bloody nose by winning Rossendale’s Hareholme and Waterfoot ward, with Reform knocking Sir Keir Starmer’s party into third.
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Labour’s vote share collapsed by 27.9%, while the Tories lost 17.6%.
It means that in the 228 council by-elections fought since May 2025, Reform has won 80, with the Lib Dems taking 64 and Labour just 17.
It indicates that Reform is on course to spark a political earthquake at the May local elections, in which a polling expert predicts it could win a staggering 2,260 seats.
Labour has been warned it could lose as many as 2,000 councillors in a brutal night, with the Tories also set to lose 1,000.
Zack Polanski’s Green Party is likely to be a huge beneficiary, boosting its numbers on councils across the country by about 450, according to leading psephologist Steve Fisher.
If his predictions come true, Reform UK’s gains would dwarf those of Labour under new leader Tony Blair in 1995.
In that year, Labour won 1,661 seats, paving the way for a landslide General Election victory two years later.
By contrast, the backlash against Sir Keir after a series of scandals could make 2026 Labour’s worst defeat on record.
The Prime Minister and his party have tanked in the polls after a series of controversial policies and U-turns, including on winter fuel payments and inheritance tax changes for farmers.
His premiership is said to be on the line after the Mandelson scandal, with questions raised over the PM’s judgement after he appointed the Labour peer as ambassador to the US despite his links to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.
A bad set of local election results in May could heap further pressure on Sir Keir to quit, critics have warned.
Reform storms to double by-election win as Labour crashes to catastrophic defeat
Reform UK has recorded another pair of council by-election victories, strengthening its recent run of gains and providing fresh evidence of the party’s ability to compete in areas that have historically been dominated by Labour and the Conservatives.
The two victories came in Eckington in Derbyshire and Hutton & Locking in North Somerset, where Reform candidates won seats on their respective councils. The results have attracted attention because Reform had not previously contested either ward with a significant vote share, yet emerged as the leading party in both contests.
For Nigel Farage, the results offer another opportunity to argue that Reform’s support is extending beyond the party’s traditional base. But the contests also need to be viewed in context. Council by-elections are relatively small-scale elections, turnout is often low, and local circumstances can produce results that do not necessarily translate directly into national voting patterns.
Nevertheless, the repeated appearance of Reform near the top of local contests has become an increasingly visible feature of British politics in 2026.
Two very different local contests
In Eckington, Reform candidate Jamie Hodgson won the North East Derbyshire District Council seat with 40 per cent of the vote, according to figures published by Reform UK.
Labour, which had previously secured 60 per cent when the ward was last contested, fell to 28 per cent. Reform had previously recorded no vote share in the ward at the preceding contest.
The result therefore represents a substantial change in the distribution of votes between the two parties.
The Hutton & Locking contest in North Somerset produced another Reform victory, although the previous political alignment was different.
Reform’s William Jones secured 38 per cent, while the Conservatives fell from 37 per cent at the previous election to 15 per cent. Again, Reform had previously had no recorded vote share in the ward.
Taken together, the results show Reform gaining seats from two different political starting points.
One came in an area where Labour had previously been dominant, while the other involved a Conservative-held position.
That breadth is politically relevant because Reform has frequently been seeking support from voters who previously backed both major centre-left and centre-right parties.
Reform’s expanding local presence
The latest contests are part of a much larger pattern.
Reform’s rise during 2026 has not been confined to parliamentary politics. The party made substantial gains in the May local elections and has subsequently continued to compete strongly in council by-elections.
The House of Commons Library’s review of parliamentary by-elections shows that Reform has already won several high-profile Westminster contests during the current Parliament.
Sarah Pochin won Runcorn and Helsby for Reform in May 2025. In February 2026, the Greens gained Gorton and Denton. Labour retained Makerfield in June through Andy Burnham, while the Conservatives gained Aberdeen South and the SNP retained Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Nigel Farage subsequently won the August 2026 Clacton by-election for Reform.
The parliamentary results therefore demonstrate a much more mixed picture than the council by-election results alone might suggest.
Reform has won Westminster seats, but other parties have also held or gained constituencies.
The party’s performance cannot therefore be reduced to a single nationwide trend.
Why council by-elections matter
Although local by-elections cannot be treated as miniature general elections, they can provide useful evidence about the political environment between major elections.
They allow parties to test campaign messages, build local organisations and assess whether national political issues are translating into votes in particular communities.
For Reform, that organisational dimension is especially important.
The party is relatively new compared with Labour and the Conservatives and has been expanding its network of councillors across England.
Winning individual council seats gives Reform representatives who can become locally recognised figures, while also giving the party greater visibility on councils where it previously had little or no representation.
The process can create a feedback loop: more councillors provide a larger local presence, which can make future campaigning easier.
But there are limits.
Turnout at council by-elections is normally much lower than at general elections. Candidates can also have strong personal reputations, while local disputes can dominate voting decisions.
For that reason, a 40 per cent vote share in a council by-election should not automatically be interpreted as equivalent to 40 per cent support in a general election.
Labour’s changing electoral position
The result in Eckington will attract particular attention because of Labour’s fall from 60 per cent at the previous contest to 28 per cent.
That is a substantial movement.
It comes after a difficult period for Labour in local and devolved elections.
The party suffered significant losses during the May 2026 elections, while Reform and the Greens made major gains in different parts of England. YouGov’s earlier modelling had already pointed towards significant changes in the distribution of support across several regions, including areas where Labour had previously been competitive or dominant.
But the political consequences of local election losses are not straightforward.
A governing party often performs worse in mid-term local elections than it does in general elections. Local elections can also be heavily influenced by turnout and tactical voting.
The more important question is whether Labour can rebuild support among voters who have moved to other parties.
That issue is particularly relevant as Reform attempts to expand beyond its historic support base.
Reform’s appeal to former Labour voters
One reason the Eckington result has attracted attention is that Reform is no longer simply competing with the Conservatives.
The party has increasingly sought support among working-class voters who previously supported Labour.
Immigration, taxation, the cost of living, public services and dissatisfaction with established political parties have all featured heavily in Reform’s national messaging.
Polling during 2026 has suggested that immigration remains particularly important to Reform supporters, while economic concerns also play a significant role.
That creates a difficult electoral environment for Labour.
The party has traditionally relied on a coalition that includes metropolitan voters, younger voters, public-sector workers and working-class communities outside London.
Reform’s challenge is particularly significant in areas where voters feel disconnected from Westminster politics but have historically regarded Labour as their natural political home.
However, the extent to which those voters have permanently moved to Reform remains uncertain.
A local by-election can demonstrate that a party is capable of winning a particular contest without proving that voters have made a permanent change in political allegiance.
The Conservative problem
The Hutton & Locking result highlights a different challenge.
Reform is also competing directly with the Conservatives for voters on the political right.
In that contest, the Conservative share fell from 37 per cent to 15 per cent while Reform won 38 per cent.
That pattern has appeared repeatedly in recent elections.
The Conservatives and Reform are competing for voters concerned about immigration, taxation, regulation, national sovereignty and the size of the state.
For the Conservatives, the problem is that Reform can potentially attract voters who previously supported the party but now believe it has not gone far enough on some issues.
At the same time, Reform’s expansion creates its own strategic challenge.
The party must convert national recognition into a durable local organisation capable of defending seats once it holds them.
Winning a by-election is one stage of that process. Retaining the seat at a full council election is another.
Farage’s response
Farage has welcomed the latest victories as evidence of growing support.
Reform described the two results as “brilliant Reform wins” and argued that voters were increasingly rejecting the established parties.
Those are political interpretations rather than independently established conclusions.
What can be established from the results is that Reform won both seats and significantly increased its vote share compared with its previous performance in those wards.
The party’s next challenge is to demonstrate that those gains are sustainable.
That will depend on whether Reform can build local campaigning organisations, recruit candidates, maintain voter engagement and broaden its appeal beyond elections where national dissatisfaction is particularly strong.
A fragmented political landscape
The wider context is Britain’s increasingly fragmented party system.
The old pattern in which Labour and the Conservatives dominated most elections has weakened considerably.
The Greens have demonstrated their ability to win Labour-held seats, particularly in parts of London and other urban areas. Reform has expanded strongly in parts of England. The Liberal Democrats remain competitive in many local areas, while the Conservatives continue to hold important pockets of support.
Recent by-elections demonstrate that different parties can benefit in different circumstances.
In the parliamentary contests of 2026, for example, Labour won Makerfield with Andy Burnham, the Conservatives gained Aberdeen South, the SNP retained Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and the Greens gained Gorton and Denton. Reform won Clacton with Farage.
That is not a political landscape in which one party is simply replacing another everywhere.
Instead, voters appear increasingly willing to move between parties depending on geography, issue priorities and local circumstances.
What the two Reform victories actually show
The double council by-election success is therefore significant, but its meaning needs to be carefully defined.
It shows that Reform UK can win seats in wards where it previously had little or no electoral presence.
It shows that the party can compete with Labour in areas where Labour has previously performed strongly.
And it shows that Reform can also take support from Conservative-held territory.
Those are concrete electoral developments.
What the results do not establish on their own is that Reform will necessarily reproduce the same performance at a future general election.
Nor do they prove that Labour’s voters have permanently abandoned the party.
The next test will come when these wards are contested in larger elections, when turnout is higher and national as well as local considerations are in play.
For Reform, the immediate task is to turn a sequence of individual victories into a lasting political organisation.
For Labour, the results underline the continuing challenge of maintaining support among voters who have alternatives on both sides of the political spectrum.
And for the Conservatives, the Hutton & Locking result demonstrates the pressure created by Reform’s continued competition for right-leaning voters.
The two by-elections therefore form another piece of a much larger political picture.
Reform is continuing to make gains at local level, while Britain’s established parties face increasingly fragmented competition. Whether those local breakthroughs develop into a durable national realignment will depend on how voters respond to the parties’ policies, leadership and performance in the elections still to come.