Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Nigel Farage has suffered a blow after the Conservatives surged past Reform UK in a new poll. The Tories have taken an eight-point lead over Mr Farage’s party, according to the survey.
The findings are another knock for Reform which has fallen in the polls in recent weeks, having spent much of this parliament topping the table. The new poll, by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft and shared with The Mail on Sunday, shows Labour on 31%, the Tories on 26% and Reform on 18%.
The figures show the Conservatives’ lead over Mr Farage’s party has increased from three points to eight points in only a month. More than 5,200 adults were surveyed by Lord Ashscroft in the poll between October 29 and November 2.
Mr Farage questioned the poll’s accuracy, telling The Mail on Sunday: “He had us at 21 [points] the week before the May local elections, but we got 28.” The Reform leader also argued most polls underestimate Reform’s share of the vote by four percentage points.
This was dismissed by a source close to Lord Ashcroft, arguing the May reference was a “red herring” because he asks about general elections, rather than local elections. A spokesman added: “I don’t remember Nigel complaining when we had Reform nine points ahead.”
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
Unlike many other pollsters, Lord Ashcroft asks how likely people think they are to vote for each party at the next election, rather than which party they would back in a hypothetical election tomorrow, reports The Mail on Sunday.
Writing in the newspaper, Lord Ashcroft said Tory leader Kemi Badenoch “continues to make an impression” with voters who say she “seems strong, direct, principled and articulate”. Ms Badenoch’s popularity has risen sharply in the past year or so.
Meanwhile, Lord Ashcroft said “suspicions over dodgy donations, unsavoury activists, and questions over seriousness and competence have combined to stall Reform’s momentum”. The findings come after a YouGov poll last month showed the Tories at 23%, placing it second behind Labour at 24%, with a three point gain over Reform in third at 21%.
Ms Badenoch argued the leapfrogging was “just the beginning” of a Tory resurgence.
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NIGHTMARE FOR NIGEL FARAGE AS KEMI BADENOCH OVERTAKES HIM IN THE POLLS – CONSERVATIVES MAKE SURPRISE COMEBACK!
Nigel Farage has suffered a fresh setback after a series of opinion polls suggested that Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are beginning to regain ground against Reform UK.
After spending a considerable period challenging Labour for the lead in national voting intention polls, Reform UK has recently experienced a decline in support, while the Conservatives have shown signs of recovery.
The latest figures have reignited Britain’s political battle on the right, with Badenoch attempting to convince former Conservative voters that her party deserves another opportunity.
For Farage, the developments raise important questions about whether Reform can maintain its momentum and turn its growing political profile into lasting electoral support.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives Move Ahead
A poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft between October 29 and November 2 surveyed more than 5,200 adults.
The findings showed:
- Labour: 31%
- Conservatives: 26%
- Reform UK: 18%
The figures placed the Conservatives eight percentage points ahead of Reform UK.
This represented a significant change compared with the previous month’s findings, when the gap between the two parties was considerably smaller.
Badenoch welcomed the development and described the movement as the beginning of a Conservative recovery.
However, polling figures represent public opinion at a particular moment and should not be interpreted as guaranteed election results.
Why Is Nigel Farage Facing Pressure?
Reform UK has experienced a difficult period following controversies involving political donations, party activists and questions about its organisation.
These developments have attracted media attention and created challenges for the party’s public image.
Farage has challenged the accuracy of some polling results, arguing that certain surveys have underestimated Reform’s support.
He has also pointed to previous occasions when the party performed better in actual elections than some polls suggested.
The disagreement highlights the importance of understanding how different polling organisations conduct their research.
Badenoch Wants Conservative Voters Back
Kemi Badenoch has been attempting to rebuild the Conservative Party following its historic defeat in the 2024 general election.
Her strategy includes appealing to former Conservative supporters who moved towards Reform UK.
She has focused on economic policy, immigration, taxation and restoring confidence in the party.
Lord Ashcroft’s research suggested that some voters increasingly viewed Badenoch as strong, direct and principled.
For the Conservatives, winning back these voters is an important part of their political strategy.
However, immigration remains a major challenge, particularly among voters who have lost confidence in the Conservatives’ previous record in government.
What Do the Latest Polls Actually Show?
The picture is more complicated than a single headline suggests.
A YouGov survey conducted on November 8–9, 2026, found:
| Party | Voting intention |
|---|---|
| Labour | 27% |
| Conservatives | 21% |
| Reform UK | 20% |
| Liberal Democrats | 12% |
| Greens | 10% |
This survey placed the Conservatives just one percentage point ahead of Reform, rather than eight points.
The difference demonstrates why individual polls should be considered alongside broader polling trends.
A separate seven-poll average published on November 10 placed the Conservatives at 21.6% and Reform at 21.4%.
The two parties were therefore extremely close in that average.
Labour Remains Central to the Political Battle
While the Conservatives and Reform compete for voters, Labour remains ahead in several recent national surveys.
The latest YouGov figures put Labour on 27%, compared with 21% for the Conservatives and 20% for Reform.
This suggests that the political debate is not simply about which opposition party can overtake the other.
Both Badenoch and Farage face the challenge of convincing voters that their parties offer a credible alternative to the government.
Economic performance, public services, immigration and taxation are likely to remain important issues.
Could the Conservatives Win Back Reform Supporters?
The Conservatives are hoping that former supporters who moved to Reform will reconsider their decision.
Badenoch has argued that her party can provide a different approach to economic management and national policy.
However, Reform has built a strong political identity around immigration control, national sovereignty and criticism of the established parties.
Winning back those voters will require more than improved polling figures.
The Conservatives will need to demonstrate that their policies and political promises are different from those that voters previously rejected.
What Happens Next?
The coming months will provide further opportunities to assess whether the Conservatives’ recovery is sustained.
Reform will attempt to defend its position, while Labour will be looking to maintain its lead.
The next round of opinion polls will be particularly important in determining whether recent changes represent a lasting movement or temporary fluctuations.
For voters, the most useful approach is to examine several surveys, their sample sizes and their fieldwork dates rather than relying on one dramatic headline.
Britain’s Political Landscape Is Changing
The latest polling developments demonstrate how competitive British politics has become.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is facing increased competition from Badenoch’s Conservatives, while Labour continues to lead several national surveys.
The rivalry between the two parties on the right is likely to remain an important feature of British politics.
Whether Badenoch can sustain the Conservatives’ recovery or Farage can regain lost support remains to be seen.
THE BIG QUESTIONS:
- Is Kemi Badenoch successfully winning back former Conservative voters?
- Why has Reform UK lost ground in some recent polls?
- Can Nigel Farage rebuild support among undecided voters?
- Are the Conservatives becoming a stronger opposition to Labour?
- Which issues will matter most to voters at the next general election?
The latest figures have certainly reopened the political contest between Badenoch and Farage, but the wider polling picture shows that Britain’s political future remains far from settled.