Andy Burnham’s arrival at the heart of British politics was supposed to give Labour a badly needed political reset. Instead, the continuing rise of Reform UK has created a formidable challenge for the new Labour leadership, particularly in the party’s traditional heartlands.
The latest wave of by-election results has provided another reminder that Reform’s advance cannot simply be dismissed as a temporary protest. Across a series of contests, the party has demonstrated an ability to exploit dissatisfaction with the established parties, while Labour has discovered that its historic support in parts of England can no longer be taken for granted.
Yet the political picture is more complicated than a simple Reform landslide.
Burnham has only recently become prime minister, and the latest national polling suggests that Labour has already begun recovering support. A YouGov poll reported by The Times put Labour on 24 per cent, ahead of Reform UK on 22 per cent, marking the first time Labour had led Reform in that measure for around 18 months.
So why, then, are Reform’s by-election successes such a nightmare for Burnham?
The answer lies in where those victories are happening.
Reform is targeting Labour’s traditional territory
For decades, Labour could rely on large parts of northern and working-class England as the foundation of its electoral strength.
That political map has changed dramatically.
The rise of Reform has demonstrated that many voters who once regarded Labour as their natural political home are willing to consider Nigel Farage’s party. The transformation has been particularly striking in areas that were once described as Labour heartlands.
Barnsley provides perhaps the clearest warning.
Labour had controlled Barnsley council since its creation in 1974. Yet at the May 2026 local elections, Reform won 42 seats, leaving Labour with only 11 councillors and taking control of a council that had been a Labour stronghold for generations.
That was not an isolated symbolic defeat.
It was a political earthquake.
And it demonstrated the scale of the challenge facing Burnham.
The prime minister’s personal political history makes the situation even more intriguing. As the former mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham has spent years building a reputation as a politician who understands northern communities and can speak to voters outside Westminster.
His political appeal was supposed to help Labour rebuild its relationship with those voters.
But Reform has already established itself as a serious alternative.
The Makerfield test
The importance of this battle became particularly obvious during the Makerfield by-election.
The contest was widely watched because it gave Burnham an opportunity to return to Parliament and establish his authority as Labour leader. Reform emerged as the main challenger, creating the possibility of a remarkable upset.
Instead, Burnham secured a decisive victory.
That result mattered enormously.
Reform’s defeat in Makerfield showed that the party’s rapid rise is not inevitable. Labour can still win back voters when it fields a strong candidate and gives them a compelling reason to return.
Burnham’s victory was described as a crushing Labour win, with Reform finishing a distant second.
But the result also revealed something else.
Reform had been able to make the contest competitive enough to attract intense national attention.
That would have been almost unimaginable in some Labour constituencies only a few years ago.
The message for Burnham is therefore complicated.
He can beat Reform.
But he cannot assume that Labour will automatically beat Reform.
Seven victories change the political conversation
The significance of Reform’s seven by-election victories lies not only in the individual seats.
It is the cumulative effect.
Each victory provides the party with another example to demonstrate to voters that it can defeat established political parties.
Politics is heavily influenced by momentum.
When voters believe that a party is rising, they can become more willing to support it. They may decide that their vote is no longer wasted on a smaller challenger.
That is one of the advantages Reform currently possesses.
Every successful by-election campaign strengthens its claim that it is not simply a protest movement.
Every Labour defeat reinforces the perception that traditional party loyalties are breaking down.
This is particularly dangerous for Burnham because Labour needs to convince voters that its new leadership represents a genuine change.
If voters see Reform continuing to win local contests, Labour’s message becomes much harder to sell.
But Reform’s national momentum has weakened
There is an important counterargument.
Reform UK is not currently enjoying the same unstoppable momentum it appeared to possess earlier in the year.
Recent polling has shifted significantly.
The YouGov figures showing Labour ahead of Reform represent a notable reversal. Labour’s support had been badly damaged under Keir Starmer, but Burnham’s leadership has helped bring some former Labour voters back into the fold.
Another recent analysis found that voters in Barnsley who had moved from Labour to Reform were beginning to reconsider their decision after Burnham became Labour leader.
Some former Labour supporters interviewed by The Guardian expressed cautious optimism about Burnham and suggested they might return to Labour if his government delivers.
That is potentially very important.
Reform may have won spectacular victories.
But winning dissatisfied voters is one thing.
Keeping them permanently is another.
Burnham has one major advantage
Unlike Labour under its previous leadership, Burnham has a clear political identity.
He has spent years building a reputation around local government, devolution and northern economic development.
That gives him something Farage cannot easily replicate.
Burnham can present himself as a politician who has actually run a major public administration and delivered tangible policies.
That credibility could become increasingly valuable.
His government has already promoted measures including a £2 bus fare cap and changes to energy taxation, while pushing a stronger devolution agenda.
For voters who are tired of political arguments but want improvements in everyday life, that practical message could be powerful.
Reform therefore faces its own challenge.
It must prove that it can govern.
Winning elections is only the first step.
The Farage problem
Reform’s national strategy remains heavily dependent on Nigel Farage.
That creates both strength and vulnerability.
Farage remains one of Britain’s most recognisable politicians and has an exceptionally loyal political base.
But he is also facing renewed scrutiny over his finances.
After resigning his Clacton seat and triggering a by-election, Farage returned to Parliament with 62.8 per cent of the vote. Yet the parliamentary investigation into an undeclared £5 million gift from cryptocurrency businessman Christopher Harborne resumed following his victory.
That means Reform’s leader is simultaneously trying to expand the party nationally while defending himself against an institutional investigation.
If the controversy intensifies, it could provide Labour with an opportunity.
But there is also a danger.
Farage has spent decades turning political attacks into fuel for his anti-establishment message. His supporters may interpret continued scrutiny as proof that powerful institutions are attempting to stop Reform.
The issue could therefore strengthen the loyalty of the party’s existing supporters even while making it harder to attract undecided voters.
The real battlefield is the “Red Wall”
The most important question for Burnham is not whether Reform can win an individual by-election.
It is whether Reform can permanently break Labour’s traditional coalition.
The so-called Red Wall constituencies are crucial.
These are communities where cultural issues, immigration, economic frustration and distrust of Westminster have combined to weaken traditional Labour loyalty.
Farage understands this extremely well.
His political message is designed to appeal to voters who believe that mainstream politicians have ignored their concerns.
Burnham has a difficult task because he must address those concerns without abandoning Labour’s broader political identity.
That means the prime minister needs to demonstrate that Labour can deliver on the economy, public services, migration and living standards while also speaking directly to voters who feel alienated from Westminster.
Reform’s biggest opportunity
The seven by-election victories give Reform something that money cannot easily buy: proof of concept.
The party can tell voters that it is winning.
It can point to Labour defeats and Conservative collapses.
It can argue that Britain’s political system is undergoing a historic realignment.
And there is genuine evidence behind that argument.
The May local elections were particularly damaging for Labour, while Reform’s performance in places such as Barnsley demonstrated its ability to convert national support into local political power.
That makes the party much more difficult to dismiss.
But Reform must avoid believing its own hype.
The Makerfield result demonstrated that voters can still rally behind Labour when presented with a strong alternative.
And the latest national polling shows that Burnham has already begun recovering some of the ground Labour lost.
The political race is therefore far from settled.
A nightmare — but not necessarily a disaster
Calling the latest results a nightmare for Burnham may be justified politically, but it would be premature to suggest that Labour is finished.
Indeed, the evidence points towards a much closer contest.
Reform has established itself as a serious political force.
Labour has suffered devastating defeats in traditional strongholds.
But Burnham has also achieved an important victory in Makerfield and appears to have generated a modest polling recovery.
The result is an increasingly unpredictable three- or four-way political system in which relatively small shifts in voter behaviour can produce enormous changes in parliamentary representation.
That could make the next general election extraordinarily volatile.
For Burnham, the priority will be preventing Labour’s former voters from permanently migrating to Reform.
For Farage, the objective will be convincing those voters that their move to Reform should become permanent.
That is the real battle.
The next test
The coming months will reveal whether Burnham’s leadership can genuinely reverse Labour’s decline.
A number of voters who abandoned Labour appear willing to give the party another chance.
But they will expect results.
They will want to know whether Burnham can improve living standards, restore confidence in public services and tackle the issues that pushed them towards Reform in the first place.
If he succeeds, Reform’s spectacular by-election victories could ultimately prove to be the high-water mark of its advance.
If he fails, however, those seven victories could look like the beginning of something much bigger.
And that is why the latest results matter so much.
Reform UK does not need to win every contest.
It simply needs to keep convincing voters that Labour can be defeated.
Every successful by-election strengthens that argument.
Every Labour loss weakens the psychological barrier that once protected the party in its traditional heartlands.
Burnham therefore faces a race against time.
He has inherited a Labour Party that remains deeply vulnerable in parts of England, but he has also inherited an opportunity to rebuild it.
The early signs are mixed.
His personal popularity is stronger than that of his predecessor, Labour has recently moved ahead of Reform in at least one major poll, and his victory in Makerfield demonstrated that the party can still mobilise its traditional supporters.
But Reform’s seven by-election victories cannot simply be brushed aside.
They are evidence of a profound change in British political behaviour.
The old assumption that working-class voters will automatically support Labour has disappeared.
The old assumption that Conservative voters will automatically remain Conservative has disappeared too.
And Nigel Farage’s party has become one of the main beneficiaries.
The political battle now facing Andy Burnham is therefore much bigger than one by-election or seven individual victories.
It is a struggle for the future identity of Britain’s working-class electorate.
If Burnham can persuade those voters that Labour has changed, the party may yet rebuild its coalition.
If he cannot, Reform’s breakthrough could become permanent.
For now, the warning signs are impossible to ignore.
Reform has shown that it can smash through Labour’s traditional defences.
Burnham has shown that he can fight back.
The next stage of Britain’s political battle will determine which of those two stories becomes the defining one.
NIGHTMARE FOR ANDY BURNHAM? REFORM UK WINS SEVEN BY-ELECTIONS AS LABOUR FACES A FRESH ELECTORAL WARNING
Britain’s political battle is becoming increasingly unpredictable, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is determined to turn growing public dissatisfaction into a lasting electoral breakthrough. A series of council by-election victories has provided the party with fresh ammunition, raising difficult questions for Labour about its ability to defend traditional strongholds and reconnect with voters who feel increasingly disillusioned with mainstream politics.
For Andy Burnham, the political stakes are considerable. As Labour seeks to establish its authority and demonstrate that it can deliver meaningful change, Reform is attempting to convince voters that the established parties have failed and that a different political direction is needed.
The headline claim that Reform won seven by-elections while Labour was “smashed” in a key vote captures the drama of the contest. The underlying results, however, tell a more complicated story. Reform did record seven council by-election victories on 25 June 2026, including important gains from Labour and the Conservatives. Yet these were local contests, and the results did not amount to a nationwide electoral defeat for Labour.
Even so, the implications for the political debate are significant. Reform has demonstrated that it can compete in areas where established parties once felt relatively secure, while Labour faces the challenge of proving that it can maintain support beyond its national election victories.
Seven victories give Farage fresh momentum
For Nigel Farage, winning council seats is about more than adding representatives to local authorities. It is an opportunity to demonstrate that Reform UK can build a presence across different regions and challenge parties that have dominated British politics for generations.
The seven victories in June provided the party with a compelling political message. Reform could point to gains from Labour and the Conservatives, as well as successful defences of existing seats. Its supporters could argue that the party was no longer simply a vehicle for protest but an increasingly important force in local government.
The geographical spread of the results also mattered. Victories across different areas suggested that Reform’s appeal was not confined to a single community or council.
However, the distinction between gaining a seat and holding one is important. Not all seven victories represented a breakthrough against Labour. Some were gains from the Conservatives, while others involved Reform defending seats it already controlled.
That does not diminish the party’s success, but it does help explain what the results actually demonstrate.
Reform is building a competitive electoral presence, and its opponents cannot assume that its support will disappear simply because established parties expect voters to return to familiar choices.
For Farage, the next challenge is to turn these local victories into a wider political movement capable of winning consistently across different types of elections.
St Helens becomes a warning sign for Labour
One of the most politically significant contests took place in St Helens Town Centre, where Reform secured one of the two seats being contested in a ward previously represented by two Labour councillors.
The result offered a clear illustration of how local political loyalties can change.
Reform’s candidates topped the poll, while Labour retained one seat. The outcome was therefore a gain for Reform rather than a complete takeover of the ward.
Nevertheless, the result was important because it showed that Labour could face serious competition in an area where it had previously enjoyed stronger support.
For a party that has traditionally relied on backing in many working-class communities, such contests raise difficult questions. Are voters becoming dissatisfied with Labour’s priorities? Do they believe the government understands their concerns? And are traditional party loyalties weakening as new political movements gain visibility?
These questions cannot be answered by one council result alone. Local elections are influenced by candidate selection, turnout, community issues and the performance of individual councillors.
Yet repeated contests of this kind can provide warning signs that parties ignore at their peril.
If Labour loses support in places where it once expected to perform strongly, the party may need to rethink how it communicates its policies and demonstrates progress on everyday concerns.
Why Reform’s message is reaching disillusioned voters
Reform’s appeal is closely linked to a broader feeling among some voters that the established parties have failed to address the problems affecting their lives.
Immigration and border control remain central to Farage’s political message. The party argues that the government must take a tougher approach, improve enforcement and demonstrate greater control over the asylum system.
But its appeal extends beyond immigration. Household bills, housing, public services, taxation and concerns about economic opportunity can also influence whether voters remain loyal to Labour or the Conservatives.
For people who believe that successive governments have failed to improve their circumstances, Reform offers a way to express dissatisfaction with the political establishment.
Farage has built much of his appeal around the idea that conventional politicians have ignored public concerns for too long. His approach seeks to turn that frustration into support for a party that promises a different direction.
The challenge is that dissatisfaction alone cannot guarantee lasting success.
Voters may support Reform as a protest without necessarily agreeing with all its policies. Others may welcome its criticism of the government while remaining uncertain about whether it has the experience and detailed plans needed to govern.
To sustain its progress, Reform must persuade these voters that its proposals are practical, affordable and capable of delivering the changes it promises.
Andy Burnham faces a difficult political test
Burnham’s position makes the debate particularly interesting because Labour needs to demonstrate that it can compete with Reform in communities where economic insecurity and concerns about public services have become powerful political issues.
A Labour government must balance competing demands. Voters want better public services, but they may also be concerned about taxation and public spending. They want effective immigration enforcement, but the government must operate within legal obligations. They want economic growth, yet they also expect decisions that protect household finances.
When governments struggle to explain their choices or demonstrate tangible improvements, political opponents can exploit the resulting frustration.
Reform is attempting to do exactly that.
The party wants voters to view its electoral advances as evidence that Labour’s support is vulnerable. It can point to local contests where Reform candidates have defeated established rivals and argue that a wider transformation is under way.
Burnham, meanwhile, must show that Labour can respond to voters’ concerns without simply adopting the rhetoric of its opponents.
That requires more than political speeches. It requires visible results on issues such as living standards, employment, housing, public services and the effective administration of government.
If Labour can demonstrate progress, it may retain voters who are dissatisfied but not yet convinced by Reform. If it fails to do so, the party risks allowing its opponents to define the political debate.
A crucial distinction: local victories are not a national verdict
Although seven council by-election victories represent a notable achievement, they should not automatically be interpreted as proof that Reform is about to dominate British politics.
Council by-elections are different from general elections. Turnout is often lower, local concerns can have an unusually strong influence and the candidates standing in each ward may affect the outcome.
National political conditions matter, but they do not determine every local result.
The wider parliamentary picture also shows that Labour can still win important contests. Burnham secured victory in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election on 18 June 2026, defeating Reform’s candidate by a substantial margin. More recently, Labour retained Holborn and St Pancras in the parliamentary by-election held on 8 October.
Those results demonstrate why the political picture cannot be reduced to a single narrative of Labour collapse or unstoppable Reform expansion.
Reform has genuine electoral strengths, but Labour retains the capacity to win. The Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats and other parties also continue to compete for voters, making Britain’s political landscape more fragmented.
The real question is whether Reform can sustain its support across different elections and convert local advances into a stronger national position.
The Conservatives are under pressure too
Reform’s growth also creates a strategic problem for the Conservative Party.
For years, the Conservatives were the principal electoral alternative to Labour. But Reform has challenged that position by appealing to voters who want tougher immigration policies, a different approach to government and a more direct challenge to the political establishment.
When Reform gains seats from the Conservatives, it demonstrates that dissatisfaction with Labour is not necessarily translating into renewed Conservative support.
This leaves the Conservatives facing difficult choices. They must decide whether to compete more directly with Farage on immigration and other issues, emphasise their experience in government or attempt to rebuild a broader coalition of voters.
Each approach carries risks.
Moving closer to Reform’s position could alienate some moderate voters, while maintaining a separate message may leave the Conservatives vulnerable to further losses on their right.
For Labour, this competition between parties on the right could create opportunities. But it would be dangerous to assume that Reform and Conservative voters will automatically divide in a way that benefits Labour.
Voting patterns can change significantly between local and general elections, and tactical voting may become more important when the stakes are higher.
Reform must now prove it can deliver
Electoral momentum brings opportunity, but it also brings scrutiny.
As Reform gains more councillors and seeks greater influence, voters will expect the party to demonstrate that its representatives can manage local services, use public money responsibly and respond effectively to residents’ concerns.
Winning an election and governing successfully require different skills.
A party can campaign against the establishment by highlighting failures and promising change. Once elected, it must make decisions within financial and legal constraints, negotiate competing priorities and accept responsibility for the results.
Reform will also need to maintain internal discipline and ensure that its candidates meet appropriate standards. Public confidence can be damaged when a party’s representatives become involved in controversy or when its promises prove difficult to implement.
For Farage, the task is to show that the party’s expansion represents more than temporary anger with its rivals.
If Reform can demonstrate competence in local government, it may strengthen its argument that it is ready for greater responsibility. If it struggles to deliver, opponents will argue that its success was built on protest rather than a credible governing programme.
What happens next?
The seven by-election victories provide Reform UK with a useful platform for its next phase of campaigning. They allow the party to present itself as a growing force and to challenge the assumption that Labour and the Conservatives will remain the dominant choices for voters.
For Labour, the results are a reminder that electoral support must be maintained rather than taken for granted.
The government will need to demonstrate that its policies are improving people’s lives, that public services are becoming more effective and that it understands the concerns of communities that feel overlooked.
The Conservatives must also find a convincing response to Reform’s advance, particularly in areas where voters who once supported the party are now considering alternatives.
Meanwhile, voters will decide whether the political changes visible in council by-elections represent a lasting realignment or a series of local reactions to particular circumstances.
The answer will emerge over time, through further elections, changing public opinion and the ability of each party to respond to the demands of the electorate.
A warning that Britain’s political map is changing
The headline of a “nightmare for Andy Burnham” may make the results sound like a decisive national turning point. The evidence supports a more measured conclusion.
Reform won seven council by-election contests on one June polling day and made important gains, including a seat from Labour in St Helens Town Centre. These results highlighted the party’s growing capacity to compete in areas where established parties have traditionally held stronger positions.
But Labour did not lose every contest, and the results do not prove that a national electoral victory for Reform is inevitable.
What they do show is that British politics has become more competitive and less predictable. Voters are increasingly willing to reconsider their traditional loyalties, while parties must work harder to demonstrate that they understand public concerns.
For Burnham and Labour, the challenge is to turn promises into visible progress. For Farage and Reform, it is to prove that local victories can become sustained national success.
The political battle is far from over. The seven by-elections may be a warning sign for Labour, but the next chapter will depend on what the parties do with the message voters have delivered.