Kemi Badenoch reached out to voters tired of tax raids (Image: TOLGA AKMEN/EPA/Shutterstock)
Kemi Badenoch has performed a pivot which should worry Andy Burnham and Sir Ed Davey. Her howitzers are aimed in their direction and Tory activists left the conference in Birmingham in no doubt that she now sees a path to power – and it involves demolishing their support. The Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders would be happy if the Conservatives and Reform UK spent the time leading up to the next election in a brutal battle to be the pre-eminent party of the Right. But Mrs Badenoch knows that most people do not think of themselves as Left-wing or Right-wing, or Marxist or libertarian. They cast their ballot according to which party is most likely to improve their lives and those of their loved ones.
As Labour discovered in Wales this year, voters are more than ready to kick out a party that commanded majority support for generations when they feel taken for granted and let down badly. Yes, the Tories need to win back voters who plan to back Reform at the next general election and, absolutely, Mrs Badenoch has moved the party to the Right. Conservatives will go into the next election with pledges to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights, repeal the Climate Change Act and build 50,000 new prison places.
Those are policies activists can sell on the doorsteps of voters wavering between the Tories and Reform. But if the Conservatives can persuade the country (a) that Labour cannot be trusted with the economy and (b) Mrs Badenoch will implement tax cuts which will make a real difference to their family finances if she becomes Prime Minister, then they will gain a hearing throughout swathes of the country now coloured red and yellow.
On Thursday, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation described the depth of crisis in living standards, warning “incomes after housing costs in 2029-30 are now expected to be between £440 and £770 a year lower than they were in 2024-25”, making this the “worst parliament for living standards since modern records began”. It rightly described a “decade of no growth in living standards” as a “disaster”. If people feel poorer after a half-decade of Labour in power they will give a fair hearing to any party with a credible plan to rescue prosperity.
Kemi Badenoch’s ambitions go far beyond being Leader of the Opposition (Image: Getty Images)
While Labour battles Reform in its heartlands – of the 172 seats Labour is projected to lose at the next election, YouGov expects 102 to go to Reform – the Tories are reaching out to southern voters who fear the state will snatch away assets they want to pass onto their children. Mrs Badenoch’s promise to abolish inheritance tax on the family home will get their attention. The pledge to end the “cliff-edge” which means parents lose childcare support when their earnings tip past £100,000 could make a real difference to productivity if it encourages people to accept promotions and, for example, doctors to work more hours. The promise to halve employer National Insurance for those aged 21 to 24, would lift a burden on small businesses and could make a difference to the youth unemployment crisis.
The Tories will have a clear message for older voters, who are far more likely to vote than younger counterparts, and may well be cash poor but live in houses which multiplied in value over the decades: We’ll protect your pension and make sure you can pass on your home to your children. At the last election, the Tories lost one in four of their voters to Reform but one in 10 to Labour and 7% to the Lib Dems. If they can win back trust on tax and the economy so voters can calculate how much better off they will be with Mrs Badenoch in Number 10, then the party stands a chance of finishing first in a host of marginal seats.
YouGov polling on Thursday found that when Brits were asked which party they thought would leave them financially best off if they won the next election, the Conservatives finished in first place (19%), ahead of Labour (17%), Reform (12%), the Greens (6%) and the Lib Dems (3%). If living standards get worse under Mr Burnham with interest rates climbing and already punishing mortgage costs rising higher, the promise of having even a few hundred pounds a year more could make all the difference. The Tories need policies which will lock in the minds of working Britons.
It was Theresa May who once walked onto the conference stage to Abba’s Dancing Queen. An apt soundtrack to Mrs Badenoch’s campaign would be Take A Chance On Me.
Get the latest politics news – straight from our team in Westminster and more
Invalid email
You agree you are 18 or over. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. You can unsubscribe at any time. More Info.
KEMI BADENOCH’S NEW STRATEGY PUTS ANDY BURNHAM IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS BRITAIN’S POLITICAL BATTLE INTENSIFIES
Britain’s political landscape remains unsettled, with the Conservative Party searching for a convincing path back to power, Labour facing questions about its direction, and Reform UK continuing to challenge the established political order. Against this backdrop, Kemi Badenoch and Andy Burnham have become important figures in a wider debate about the future of British conservatism, Labour’s identity and the direction the country should take.
The suggestion that Badenoch has discovered a route to Downing Street raises a significant question: what would she need to achieve to transform the Conservatives’ position, and why could that matter for Burnham?
The answer lies not in one dramatic announcement or a single parliamentary confrontation, but in the difficult task of rebuilding political trust.
Badenoch’s challenge: turning Conservative opposition into a credible alternative
As Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch faces a complicated challenge. Her party must explain what went wrong during its time in government, demonstrate that it understands voters’ concerns and persuade the public that it has a credible programme for the future.
That task is made more difficult by competition on the right. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has sought to attract voters who are dissatisfied with the political establishment, particularly over immigration, taxation, public services and the consequences of previous government decisions.
For Badenoch, the challenge is therefore twofold. She must distinguish the Conservatives from Labour while also establishing a clear identity that separates her party from Reform UK.
Simply criticising the government may not be enough. Opposition parties can attract attention by highlighting unpopular decisions, but sustained political recovery generally requires a broader argument about what they would do differently.
That means setting out policies on economic growth, public spending, the NHS, housing, immigration and taxation in a way that voters can understand. It also means explaining how proposed changes would be funded and what trade-offs they might involve.
If Badenoch can establish a recognisable programme and maintain a consistent message, she could strengthen the Conservatives’ position in the national debate. Whether that would translate into electoral success would depend on public opinion, the performance of the government and the choices made by competing parties.
Why Andy Burnham remains part of the conversation
Andy Burnham occupies a different position in British politics. As Greater Manchester’s mayor and a prominent Labour figure, he has developed a public profile through his work on regional development, transport, public services and the relationship between Westminster and local government.
His supporters have often presented him as a politician who understands the pressures facing communities outside London. His experience in local government also gives him a perspective on how national decisions affect regional economies and public services.
However, Burnham’s political position should not be confused with that of a national party leader. Any move towards Westminster politics would involve practical, parliamentary and political questions, as well as decisions within Labour itself.
His relationship with the party leadership, his record as mayor and his views on major national issues would all be relevant to any discussion about his future.
For Badenoch, Burnham represents part of the broader political challenge Labour faces: how to maintain unity while responding to competing expectations from voters, local leaders and different parts of the party.
But it would be premature to assume that a change in the Conservatives’ strategy automatically creates a personal crisis for Burnham. The two politicians occupy different roles, and their political prospects depend on different circumstances.
Labour faces difficult questions about its direction
The government’s central challenge is to demonstrate that its decisions are improving people’s lives. Voters are concerned about the cost of living, access to healthcare, housing affordability, economic growth and the condition of public services.
Promises of change can generate high expectations, but governments must eventually be judged against tangible results.
If households continue to struggle with bills or find it difficult to access essential services, ministers may face pressure to explain why progress is slower than expected. If the economy improves and public services deliver better outcomes, the government could find it easier to defend its approach.
This creates a political opening for opposition parties, including the Conservatives. However, they must do more than point to public dissatisfaction. They also need to explain how their alternatives would address the same problems.
Burnham’s own political position is connected to these debates because regional leaders frequently face demands for greater investment, improved transport and stronger support for local services. His public statements and record in Greater Manchester can therefore become part of wider arguments about Labour’s priorities.
Yet local and national responsibilities are not identical. Mayoral policies operate within specific budgets and powers, while a national government must manage the entire country’s finances and competing demands across every region.
Understanding that distinction is essential when evaluating the competing claims made by politicians.
Reform UK complicates the Conservatives’ strategy
One of Badenoch’s most important challenges is the presence of Reform UK.
For years, the Conservatives benefited from a broad coalition of voters with different priorities. Some placed immigration and national sovereignty at the centre of their political decisions. Others prioritised economic competence, public services, business conditions or social stability.
Reform UK has attempted to bring together voters who believe the established parties have failed to address their concerns. Its approach places significant emphasis on immigration control, reducing government waste and changing the direction of British politics.
This puts pressure on Badenoch to decide how the Conservatives should respond.
Moving closer to Reform UK on certain issues could appeal to some voters, but it might also raise questions about whether the Conservatives have a distinctive programme of their own. Taking a different approach could help the party distinguish itself, but it might leave some voters unconvinced that it shares their priorities.
There is no simple solution. The Conservatives must decide which policies to emphasise, how to communicate them and how to persuade voters that the party has learned from its previous period in government.
The relationship between the two parties could also influence the broader political debate. Competition over similar groups of voters may affect campaign strategies, parliamentary discussions and the way political parties approach potential agreements.
For Badenoch, the challenge is to build a coherent political identity rather than relying exclusively on opposition to Labour or competition with Farage.
Can the Conservatives rebuild public trust?
A party’s return to political relevance requires more than a change of leadership.
Voters may want to know why previous policies did not deliver the expected results, what lessons have been learned and why new promises should be treated differently.
Economic credibility is likely to be particularly important. Proposals involving tax reductions, higher spending or changes to public services need to be accompanied by convincing explanations of their costs and consequences.
The same applies to immigration. Political parties can make commitments about border control and asylum procedures, but voters may judge those commitments by whether implementation produces measurable results.
Public trust also depends on consistency. A party that changes its message repeatedly may struggle to convince voters that its approach will remain stable once in government.
Badenoch’s challenge is to demonstrate that the Conservatives can offer a practical alternative while acknowledging the difficulties involved in governing a country with substantial financial and public-service pressures.
The party must also consider how to appeal beyond its existing supporters. Winning back voters who have moved to Reform UK is one potential objective, but reaching people who previously supported Labour or the Liberal Democrats may require a different set of arguments.
A credible strategy would need to account for all these groups rather than assuming that one issue could determine the outcome.
Burnham and the debate over Labour’s future
Burnham’s prominence reflects a wider discussion about Labour’s identity and its relationship with communities across England.
Questions about public spending, regional inequality, transport investment and the future of local government have long been important to his political work. These issues also feature prominently in debates about the government’s economic priorities.
Some Labour supporters favour a more interventionist approach to public services and regional development. Others place greater emphasis on fiscal restraint, private-sector investment and demonstrating that government spending produces measurable improvements.
Reconciling these priorities is a significant task for any Labour leadership.
Burnham’s experience as mayor may give him a platform to discuss these questions, but any assessment of his future must distinguish public visibility from formal political authority. National leadership would involve a separate set of responsibilities, party procedures and parliamentary considerations.
For now, the broader significance of Burnham’s position is that Labour must manage expectations among voters who want better public services and stronger local economies while also addressing constraints on public finances.
If Labour struggles to demonstrate progress, opposition parties will have opportunities to challenge its record. If it delivers improvements, those arguments may become more difficult for its opponents to sustain.
Neither outcome can be assumed in advance.
The issues that could shape Britain’s next political chapter
The debate surrounding Badenoch and Burnham ultimately points towards a series of practical questions facing British politics.
Can the Conservatives develop an economic programme that appeals to voters who are concerned about taxes, living standards and public services? Can Labour demonstrate that its policies are delivering meaningful improvements? Can Reform UK maintain its appeal while translating its promises into detailed proposals for government?
Immigration, the NHS, housing, energy costs and economic growth are all likely to remain important subjects. The way parties address these issues may matter more to voters than the personalities involved in individual political disputes.
Political leadership is important, but it cannot substitute for policies that are workable, clearly explained and capable of producing results.
Badenoch’s route towards Downing Street, if she is to establish one, would depend on her ability to build public confidence, strengthen her party and present a credible alternative to the government. Burnham’s future, meanwhile, would depend on his own decisions, Labour’s internal dynamics and the wider political circumstances.
The two stories intersect because both reflect a period of uncertainty about Britain’s political direction. They do not, however, establish that one politician’s prospects are necessarily determined by the other’s actions.
A political contest that is far from settled
The idea that Badenoch has discovered a route to becoming prime minister makes for a compelling political headline. In practice, the path to Downing Street involves a series of demanding tests: maintaining party unity, persuading voters, presenting credible policies and responding effectively to events that cannot always be predicted.
Burnham also faces questions about his role in Labour’s future, but speculation about his political prospects should be separated from confirmed developments.
The central issue is whether Britain’s political parties can convince voters that they understand the country’s problems and have realistic plans to address them.
For the Conservatives, that means rebuilding credibility while navigating competition from Reform UK. For Labour, it means demonstrating that its promises can translate into tangible improvements in people’s lives. For Burnham, it means defining his role within a party balancing regional ambitions with national responsibilities.
Britain’s political contest will ultimately be shaped by public judgement, policy choices and real-world outcomes. Until those factors become clearer, claims of a decisive breakthrough for one politician or an imminent crisis for another remain interpretations rather than established conclusions.