OPINION – JONATHAN SAXTY: Both Labour and the Tories have dropped the ball… this is a vital area in which Reform can build credibility and fast
Nigel Farage speaks at a press conference after unveiling Angus MacIntyre as his defence spokesman (Image: Getty)
I am writing this from Taiwan, which would be Ground Zero in any World War Three scenario. Forget Ukraine. Whatever sympathies one may have for the Ukrainians, as we have seen since 2022 the geopolitical implications of a Russian war are not that profound. Beyond energy price rises and calls for more defence spending, has the world been dragged into any global economic and military meltdown? The answer is of course no. Taiwan is a whole different proposition. If China tried to take over the world’s semiconductor king, it would drag us all down since the US and allies would have to engage.
The difference with Ukraine is geography. Taiwan sits in the middle of the ‘first island chain’, a network of Western allied island countries which currently block China from projecting power into the Pacific and pushing Uncle Sam out of the region. Two of these countries, Japan and the Philippines, directly host US troops. Between them sits Taiwan, which China has no option but to control if it wants to make good on leader Xi Jinping‘s pledge to achieve full geopolitical parity with the US.
This also explains why the US cannot sit in splendid isolation, and – since Beijing is likely to make use of its North Korean and Pakistani proxies – India, Japan and Korea are likely to get involved as well. The economic implications alone are off the charts. This is the world’s industrial centre, where virtually all your stuff gets made. Imagine it grinding to a halt with multiple nuclear powers eyeballing one another.
The idea that a blue water navy and nuclear weapon state like Britain could sit perched on the edge of the world seems for the birds. This makes Reform’s recent defence spokesman announcement so interesting. Wing Commander Angus MacIntyre said on his appointment: “The two old guard parties have left our Armed Forces under severe pressure. The cuts during the Brown and Blair years took chunks from the ranks of all three services
“The Conservatives promised to fix it, but over their 14 years in government, they oversaw a further decline in our military power. Neither can be trusted. Only Reform UK can fix and rebuild our Armed Forces.”
Defence and foreign affairs are areas where Reform can build credibility and, while all attention has been on Russia, Reform has a chance to get to grips with the much bigger threat of an expansionist China. This is especially the case since the Tories have in their foreign affairs head a man who has made a name as a China hawk. The last thing Reform wants is for the Conservatives to get ahead on this.
Nigel Farage‘s party can point out – as with immigration, crime and the economy – how the Conservatives and Labour have been unmitigated failures and cannot be trusted to look after our national defence (whether on spending or looking after veterans).
With Wing Commander MacIntyre, Reform is looking more credible in areas beyond its core strengths. Now the party needs to develop a coordinated policy on what I suspect will be the biggest and most urgent geopolitical question of the next few years.