Reform’s manifesto, launched today, sets out its vision for change in Wales, a nation where wages lag significantly behind the English average, where children perform worse than their peers in the other UK nations in reading, science and maths, and where families swap horror stories about their NHS experiences.

Wales backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum but the Conservatives have struggled to thrive in Senedd elections. Reform lacks the stigma which stopped many people in former industrial communities voting Tory and it has proved adept at tapping into grievances.

But the spectacle of Reform being the main opposition, having demolished the Tories and scored victories through Labour’s traditional heartlands would still send shockwaves throughout the UK. It would deepen fears in Labour ranks that Mr Farage can win over even greater swathes of the Red Wall than Boris Johnson did in 2019.

Labour has never reclaimed control of the Scottish government after its 2007 election defeat. If it loses hold of Wales, too, and suffers a local government disaster in England, serious questions will be asked about the party’s future. Wales was once a bastion of Liberal Democrat support but the party won a single constituency in 2024. Labour will be desperate to avoid a similar vanishing act.

If Sir Keir sees a collapse of support in the political homeland of Keir Hardie, Aneurin Bevan and Neil Kinnock then – as Mr Farage has predicted – the Starmer era could come crashing to an end.

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Nigel Farage has a chance to land a blow that could end Keir Starmer’s premiership

For Nigel Farage, the political argument was simple: a major electoral defeat for Labour could become much more than a bad night at the ballot box. It could become a direct test of Keir Starmer’s authority.

In the months before Starmer eventually left Downing Street, Farage repeatedly argued that Reform UK had the opportunity to inflict damage on Labour that would be difficult for the prime minister to withstand.

The Reform leader made that argument particularly forcefully ahead of the 2026 elections in Wales and England. Farage described the Welsh Senedd election as a referendum on Starmer’s premiership and said Reform wanted to end Labour’s long-standing dominance in Wales.

At the time, it was political rhetoric and prediction.

Events subsequently moved much faster than many observers expected.

Starmer resigned as prime minister in June 2026, meaning that the original warning has to be understood as part of the political build-up to his departure rather than as a current forecast. Reform UK itself reported Farage saying in June that Starmer’s premiership was “over” and predicting that a leadership challenge would emerge during the summer.

The extraordinary part of the story is therefore not simply that Farage predicted trouble for Starmer.

It is how quickly Labour’s political circumstances changed.

The election Farage saw as a turning point

When Farage spoke about the Welsh election as a referendum on Starmer, he was attempting to raise the stakes far beyond the Senedd itself.

Reform UK had been seeking to establish itself as a serious challenger to Labour in parts of Wales, particularly in areas where dissatisfaction with the governing party had become increasingly visible.

Farage argued that a strong Reform performance would demonstrate that Labour’s traditional support was no longer secure.

The argument reflected a broader strategy.

Rather than presenting Reform solely as a protest party, Farage wanted voters to see it as a potential governing alternative.

That required victories.

It required councils.

It required parliamentary representation.

And it required evidence that voters who had previously supported Labour or the Conservatives were prepared to change allegiance.

The May 2026 elections provided an important test of that strategy.

Reuters reported before polling day that almost 5,000 council seats in England were being contested alongside elections in Scotland and Wales, with the results expected to put additional pressure on Starmer if Labour suffered substantial losses.

Farage therefore had a clear political incentive to frame the contest as a national judgement on Starmer.

Reform’s opportunity

The attraction for Reform was obvious.

Every Labour loss could be presented as evidence that the governing party was losing its grip on voters.

Every Reform gain could be presented as evidence that the political map was changing.

The strategy was particularly relevant in areas of northern England and Wales, where traditional Labour support had come under pressure during the previous decade.

Reform’s message focused heavily on immigration, taxation, government spending, national sovereignty and dissatisfaction with the established parties.

Farage argued that Labour had failed to deliver what many voters expected after its 2024 general-election victory.

The government’s large parliamentary majority had initially given Starmer considerable political authority.

But a parliamentary majority does not necessarily guarantee popularity.

Local and devolved elections can expose weaknesses that are less visible in Westminster.

That was the opportunity Reform sought to exploit.

Starmer’s response

Starmer did not accept Farage’s interpretation.

Ahead of the May elections, the prime minister argued that Britain needed stable government rather than what he described as the politics of grievance and division.

Reuters reported that Starmer had vowed to continue fighting despite the prospect of significant Labour losses. He argued that his government needed to respond to the country’s economic and international challenges through what he described as active government.

That response highlighted an important difference between the two political narratives.

Farage saw the elections as an opportunity to demonstrate that Labour’s political authority was collapsing.

Starmer presented them as another stage in a longer process of governing.

The eventual results would determine which interpretation appeared more convincing at that particular moment.

The pressure intensified

By June, the political situation had become considerably more serious.

Two senior defence figures resigned from the government, including Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns.

Farage immediately argued that the resignations demonstrated that Starmer’s authority was breaking down.

According to Reform UK’s account of Farage’s comments to LBC, he said Starmer’s premiership was over and predicted that a leadership challenge would take place before the Labour conference.

That was still a prediction.

But it was a prediction made during an unusually unstable period for the government.

The pressure did not remain hypothetical.

Starmer subsequently left office in June.

Andy Burnham became prime minister in July, fundamentally changing the political environment in which Reform was operating. Reuters reported in September that Burnham was already pursuing a different international approach from his predecessor while preparing for major foreign-policy and defence engagements.

The political contest had therefore moved on.

The Farage argument after Starmer

The end of Starmer’s premiership did not automatically validate every element of Farage’s political analysis.

A leader’s resignation can result from many interacting factors, including internal party dynamics, public opinion, policy disputes and political events.

Farage was one of the opposition leaders calling for change, but that does not mean his predictions alone explain why Starmer left office.

This distinction is particularly important when looking at political headlines after the fact.

A prediction can turn out to resemble subsequent events without proving that the person making the prediction knew exactly how those events would unfold.

Nevertheless, Farage’s comments became more significant because Starmer did eventually resign.

Reform’s next problem

The departure of Starmer created a new challenge for Farage.

He could no longer campaign against Starmer as the central figure of Labour.

Instead, Reform had to compete against a Labour Party under new leadership.

That changed the political calculation.

The question became whether dissatisfaction with Labour was primarily connected to Starmer personally or whether it reflected deeper disagreements with the party and its policies.

The polling evidence has produced a mixed picture.

Ipsos polling conducted between September 10 and 15 put Labour four points ahead of Reform UK, with Labour on 29 per cent and Reform on 25 per cent. The poll also found that Burnham was preferred as prime minister to Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

That does not settle the future electoral contest.

But it demonstrates that Reform’s earlier momentum was not permanent.

Farage’s personal ratings

Another important development has concerned Farage himself.

YouGov’s September political favourability survey found that 69 per cent of Britons viewed Farage unfavourably, while 24 per cent viewed him favourably. YouGov said the 69 per cent figure was the highest unfavourable rating recorded for him by its tracker.

His net favourability rating was minus 45.

The Independent noted that this was the same net rating Starmer had recorded immediately before his resignation.

Those figures do not predict an election result.

They do, however, provide context for the challenge facing Reform.

Farage remains highly recognisable and capable of generating considerable political attention.

But recognition is not the same thing as broad popularity.

For Reform, the central strategic question is whether the party can convert its support into sustained electoral strength without relying entirely on Farage’s personal political brand.

The competition is becoming more complicated

The political landscape has also become more fragmented.

Reform is not competing only with Labour.

The Conservatives remain an important force, while the Greens have expanded their electoral presence and the Liberal Democrats continue to contest seats across Britain.

The rise of the Greens is particularly relevant because it demonstrates that dissatisfaction with Labour does not necessarily translate into support for Reform.

That makes the political environment significantly more complicated than a simple Farage-versus-Labour contest.

Recent YouGov research into tactical voting found that in a hypothetical constituency where only Labour and Reform were competitive, 41 per cent of respondents said they would vote Labour compared with 26 per cent for Reform. YouGov also found increased willingness among Green and Liberal Democrat voters to vote tactically for Labour against Reform.

Again, these figures are not an election forecast.

They are measurements of hypothetical voting behaviour at a particular point in time.

But they illustrate how other parties can influence Reform’s prospects even when they are not directly competing with Farage for the same ideological space.

The real significance of Farage’s “blow”

Looking back, the idea that Farage could land a blow capable of ending Starmer’s premiership turned out to describe a genuinely important period in British politics.

But the decisive development was not a single Reform victory.

It was the accumulation of political pressure around Labour.

Local election results, internal disagreements, government controversies, changing public opinion and leadership tensions all formed part of the wider picture.

Farage capitalised on those developments and presented them as evidence that Starmer’s government was losing its authority.

Starmer ultimately left office.

But British politics did not stop there.

The arrival of Burnham has created an entirely new contest for Reform.

Farage must now demonstrate that his party’s support is not simply dependent on opposition to one Labour leader.

He must compete against a government with a different prime minister, while also facing challenges from the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats.

From one political target to a wider battle

The story therefore goes beyond whether Farage was right about Starmer.

The more important question is what happens when the political target changes.

Reform built much of its momentum by arguing that Labour and the Conservatives had failed to address issues that mattered to millions of voters.

That argument remains available to Farage.

But the evidence from polling suggests that voters are not automatically transferring their support to Reform.

The September YouGov research showed Labour ahead of Reform in hypothetical head-to-head contests, while Ipsos also recorded Labour ahead nationally.

That leaves Reform with a continuing political opportunity, but also a substantial challenge.

Farage succeeded in making the question of Starmer’s leadership part of the national political debate.

Starmer eventually left office.

Yet the next stage of British politics will be determined by a much broader set of questions: whether voters continue to support Reform, whether Labour can consolidate under Burnham, whether the Conservatives recover, and whether the Greens maintain their recent gains.

The original headline therefore captures one part of a much larger political transformation.

Farage wanted to land a blow against Starmer.

The blow came amid a much wider period of political change.

And now that Starmer is no longer prime minister, the most revealing test for Farage is no longer whether he can bring down one Labour leader.

It is whether Reform UK can maintain its position in a political system that has become far more competitive, fragmented and unpredictable than it was when Starmer first entered Downing Street.

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