Andy Burnham has good reasons to go for broke with a snap election (Image: Getty)
We’ve had small, popular measures, such as cutting VAT on electricity bills, capping bus fares at £2, and vague talk about easing the cost-of-living crisis. Big decisions on defence spending, social care and council house building have been pushed down the road. Many have seen this as a sign of weakness. That Burnham would rather court cheap popularity than tackle the tough decisions facing Britain today. But could it be something else?
There’s growing speculation that our new PM has something else up his sleeve, and is deliberately avoiding anything that could derail it. He’s enjoying his bounce, and would rather build the Burnham brand with voters by pumping out easy-going TikTok videos than start fights he might lose. That’s because he’s saving it up for the big one. A snap general election. Not in the spring, as many have assumed, but in November.
Get the latest politics news – straight from our team in Westminster and more
Invalid email
You agree you are 18 or over. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. You can unsubscribe at any time. More Info.
That could see the nation trudging to the polls in just two months’ time. The more I think about it, the more attractive it must look from Burnham’s point of view. But it relies on a few things going right first. So the PM will have to hold fire, before making his move.
First, we have the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, from Sunday September 27 to Wednesday September 30. Burnham will use it to rally the faithful and deliver a set-piece speech designed to convince the nation he’s prime minister material. If that goes well, he moves onto the second stage of his plan.
On October 8, there’s a by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by former PM Keir Starmer stepping down. Green Party leader Zack Polanski is contesting the seat, but if Labour sees off mad Zack, Burnham will feel emboldened to go for the big one. The shortest an election campaign can legally last is 25 working days. The Daily Telegraph has suggested Thursday November 19 as a possible date.
The Budget is due on October 28, so Burnham will have to decide what to do about that. It might be possible to postpone it until after the election. Otherwise, it won’t contain much more than a few basics and cheap giveaways. And Burnham has another reason to go for broke. In fact, I think it’s the strongest of all.
We’re heading towards a winter of discontent. Global inflation and energy prices are soaring, thanks to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. That will drive gas, electricity and food bills even higher, while four predicted interest rate hikes next year could push up mortgage costs too. All of which will make voters very grumpy, and less likely to vote for the incumbent PM.
An early election before the crisis strikes could be a sound pre-emptive move. Especially with Kemi Badenoch growing in authority by the day, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is distracted by rows over donations. If Burnham goes for it and gets his mandate, then we’re in trouble.
Burnham rode his luck to get into Westminster, and will be hoping it holds for a couple more months. But this could be bad luck for the rest of us.
Yesterday, one of Burnham’s former allies warned that he’s leading an old-style socialist tax-and-spend government. Now we could be facing five years of it, if the PM has his way.
If Burnham calls and wins an election, he can ditch Labour’s manifesto pledge not to hike income tax, national insurance and VAT, and really go for it. That’s when the tough decisions will start rolling in. And they’ll be especially tough for taxpayers, who’ll pay the price of a Labour victory. For years.
Andy Burnham on brink of huge decision – and we all face 5 more years of total misery
Andy Burnham is approaching one of the most consequential decisions of his short premiership, with the October Budget set to reveal how far his Labour government is prepared to go on tax, spending and public services.
For weeks, speculation has focused on whether the Prime Minister will use the Budget to make major changes to the tax system, increase spending in key areas or attempt to reassure financial markets by taking a more cautious approach.
The pressure has intensified after official figures showed government borrowing running ahead of expectations.
The political stakes are high.
Burnham has promised to protect household finances while insisting that his government will take the difficult decisions needed to keep the economy on track. Yet the combination of higher inflation, elevated borrowing costs and pressure for additional public spending means there is limited room for manoeuvre.
And that is why the coming weeks could define the direction of his government.
The decision facing Burnham
The immediate deadline is October 28, when Chancellor John Healey is due to deliver the Autumn Budget.
Burnham has repeatedly refused to write the Budget in advance or rule out every possible tax change.
At his first Prime Minister’s Questions, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch pressed him directly on whether taxes would rise.
Burnham replied that he would not “write the Budget” at the dispatch box and said the detailed decisions belonged to the Chancellor. He also argued that setting an early Budget date was intended to reduce prolonged speculation.
That answer has left considerable uncertainty surrounding the government’s plans.
Ministers have ruled out increasing the main rates of income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance, while other areas of taxation remain under discussion.
The Chartered Institute of Taxation has noted that possible changes reported in the media include capital gains tax, property taxes and sector-specific levies. It has also stressed that much of this remains speculation ahead of the Budget.
The five-year warning
The dramatic claim that Britain could face “five more years of total misery” is a political interpretation rather than a measurable forecast.
Burnham’s government has a full parliamentary term ahead of it unless circumstances change, meaning the decisions taken now could influence household finances and public services for years.
Critics argue that higher taxes, rising prices and increased borrowing could leave families under sustained financial pressure.
Other analysts take a more cautious view, pointing out that economic conditions can change substantially over a five-year period.
Inflation, interest rates, energy prices, productivity and global economic conditions are all capable of moving in directions that cannot be known with certainty today.
The more immediate concern is therefore not whether five years of misery is inevitable, but what choices the government makes as it confronts its current fiscal constraints.
Borrowing has become a major problem
The latest public-finance figures have made the Budget challenge considerably more difficult.
Government borrowing reached £18.3 billion in August, according to official figures, exceeding forecasts by £3.5 billion.
Borrowing for the financial year to date stood at £77.3 billion, around £8.1 billion above the level anticipated by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The figures have increased pressure on Healey ahead of the October Budget, particularly as higher inflation has increased the cost of servicing some government debt.
The situation does not mean the government is facing an immediate fiscal crisis.
But it does reduce the amount of money available for new commitments without corresponding tax rises, spending reductions or additional borrowing.
That is the arithmetic confronting Burnham and Healey.
Inflation is adding pressure
The household picture has also become more difficult.
UK inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in August, up from 2.9 per cent in July.
The increase was driven in part by higher energy and fuel costs associated with the wider economic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East.
Burnham has acknowledged that the international environment has made the Budget more difficult.
“We will take difficult decisions to make sure the economy remains on track,” he said in September.
The Prime Minister has also insisted that he does not want to take risks with people’s living standards or the economy.
That creates an obvious political tension.
If the government wants to increase support for households while simultaneously keeping borrowing under control, it needs to identify where the money will come from.
Tax rises remain the biggest question
The possibility of tax rises has dominated speculation around the Budget.
Burnham has maintained Labour’s commitments not to increase the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, VAT or employee National Insurance.
That does not mean that all taxation is frozen.
Capital gains tax has been repeatedly discussed as a possible target, while other measures involving property and specific sectors have also been reported.
Reuters reported earlier this month that the government was examining options for raising revenue from wealth while trying to protect its broader tax commitments.
There is also speculation about whether the government could adjust personal tax allowances.
Sky News reported that an increase in the personal allowance was being considered alongside possible changes affecting capital gains.
None of those possibilities should be treated as confirmed until the Chancellor stands at the despatch box.
Burnham’s early popularity is another factor
The Prime Minister’s first months in office have been characterised by a mixture of popular announcements and unresolved long-term questions.
An analysis published in September suggested that Burnham had deliberately postponed some of the more controversial decisions while building his political position.
It argued that he could eventually face a major choice over whether to seek an early general election.
However, that speculation has subsequently been challenged.
ITV reported on September 25 that Burnham had used a marathon round of broadcast interviews to “knock dead” rumours that he was considering an early general election.
That development changes the immediate political picture.
Rather than assuming that an election is imminent, attention can now return to the government’s programme and the Budget.
The election question
The prospect of an early election had attracted attention because a government that has recently entered office may have an incentive to seek a fresh mandate before unpopular decisions take effect.
But an election is not currently confirmed.
Burnham’s reported rejection of the rumour means that the central decision facing his government is instead the economic one.
The October Budget will provide a much clearer indication of whether Labour intends to prioritise tax stability, additional revenue, public investment, spending restraint or some combination of all four.
Labour’s long-term ambitions
The government has promised a wide range of reforms.
Burnham has spoken about rebuilding public services, improving economic growth, expanding opportunities outside London and tackling long-term structural problems.
He has also backed major changes in areas such as energy, social care, housing and infrastructure.
Those policies require money.
At the same time, the government has to operate within fiscal rules and maintain confidence in Britain’s public finances.
That is why the Budget cannot simply be judged by the size of individual announcements.
The crucial question will be whether the government can demonstrate that its spending commitments are financially sustainable.
The danger of doing too little
There is also an argument against excessive caution.
If ministers respond to fiscal pressure solely by cutting spending, they could find themselves unable to deliver the public-service improvements that formed a central part of Labour’s political programme.
Health, social care, housing and infrastructure all require long-term investment.
A government that prioritises immediate deficit reduction above everything else could therefore face a different political problem: failing to meet its promises.
This is the central dilemma facing Burnham.
There is no obvious option that satisfies every competing demand.
The danger of doing too much
The opposite approach carries its own risks.
If the government announces substantial new spending without credible funding, borrowing could increase.
Higher borrowing costs would then place further pressure on the public finances.
The September fiscal figures illustrate why this matters.
The government is already borrowing more than expected, while interest payments are being affected by inflation and higher borrowing costs.
That does not mean that every spending increase is irresponsible.
It means that the government needs to explain how major commitments will be financed.
Burnham’s own warning
The Prime Minister has acknowledged that the economic environment is difficult.
During an interview in August, he refused to rule out tax rises and said he would not be “unrealistic” about the country’s financial position.
He also said he would not take risks with people’s jobs, livelihoods or family finances.
In September, he again said difficult decisions would be necessary.
Those statements suggest that the government is preparing the public for a Budget that may contain measures that are not universally popular.
The exact balance remains unknown.
What five years could actually look like
The temptation in political commentary is to describe the next five years in absolute terms.
One side can warn of economic misery.
Another can promise national renewal.
Neither approach captures the uncertainty involved.
Britain’s economic performance will depend on factors beyond Westminster.
Energy prices can rise or fall.
Interest rates can change.
Global trade can strengthen or weaken.
Investment can increase.
Productivity can improve.
International conflicts can create new shocks.
Those factors mean that no responsible analysis can establish today that Britons are destined for five years of worsening living standards.
What can be established is that the government’s current choices will influence the country’s fiscal position and the distribution of costs and benefits.
The Budget will reveal the direction
The October 28 Budget is therefore more than another parliamentary event.
It will be the first major opportunity for Burnham and Healey to demonstrate how their government intends to reconcile its ambitions with the financial constraints it inherited and the new pressures that have emerged since taking office.
The government has promised to protect household living standards.
It has also promised fiscal responsibility.
It has ruled out increases in several major tax rates while leaving other taxation options open.
And it has acknowledged that difficult decisions are coming.
Those commitments will now be tested against the numbers.
A defining moment for Burnham
For Burnham personally, the significance is considerable.
His early period as Prime Minister has been dominated by attempts to establish a new political direction.
The Budget will be the moment when broad promises have to become detailed choices.
Should the government raise additional revenue?
Should it reduce or delay spending?
Should it borrow more for investment?
Should it prioritise immediate help with household costs?
Or should it concentrate on measures designed to increase economic growth over the longer term?
Those are political choices with consequences for different groups.
The available evidence does not establish that one path would inevitably produce five years of misery or prosperity.
But it does show that the government’s room for manoeuvre is constrained.
Borrowing is above forecast, inflation is above the Bank of England’s target and financial markets remain sensitive to the government’s fiscal plans.
Burnham is therefore approaching a genuine moment of choice.
The dramatic predictions surrounding his government will continue, but the decisive evidence will come from the policies eventually announced.
Until then, claims about five years of “total misery” remain political rhetoric rather than a settled economic forecast.
What is certain is that the October Budget will give Britain its clearest indication yet of how Andy Burnham intends to govern when the easy promises are over and the difficult decisions begin.