Gorton and Denton By-Election Results in Full as Keir Starmer Suffers Humiliating Blow
Keir Starmer has suffered one of the most painful electoral shocks of his premiership after Labour was dramatically pushed into third place in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
The result was not merely a defeat.
It was a political warning.
The Green Party stormed to victory, Reform UK finished second and Labour, which had dominated the constituency for generations, was relegated to third.
Hannah Spencer won the seat for the Greens with 14,980 votes, taking 40.7 per cent of the vote.
Reform candidate Matt Goodwin finished second with 10,578 votes, or 28.7 per cent.
Labour’s Angeliki Stogia managed 9,364 votes, representing 25.4 per cent.
The margin between the winner and Labour was therefore enormous.
The result overturned a substantial Labour majority from the 2024 general election and marked the first time the Greens had won a Westminster by-election.
For Starmer, the symbolism could hardly be worse.
Labour’s historic defeat
Gorton and Denton was not supposed to be an easy seat for Labour to lose.
The constituency had long been associated with Labour politics.
For decades, the party had relied on deep roots in the area and a powerful relationship with working-class voters.
That relationship has now been seriously challenged.
Labour did not merely lose.
It finished behind two rival parties.
That is what makes the result so uncomfortable for Starmer.
If Reform had won, Labour could have argued that the right-wing populist vote had broken through.
If the Greens had won while Labour finished second, the party could have described the result as a warning from progressive voters.
Instead, Labour was pushed into third place.
That creates a much more complicated political message.
The full result
The final result was:
Green Party – Hannah Spencer: 14,980 votes, 40.7 per cent
Reform UK – Matt Goodwin: 10,578 votes, 28.7 per cent
Labour – Angeliki Stogia: 9,364 votes, 25.4 per cent
The Conservatives and other parties were far behind.
Turnout was around 47.6 per cent, only slightly below the 2024 general election figure.
The result therefore cannot simply be dismissed as a consequence of extremely low participation.
There was a substantial electorate engaged in the contest.
And they delivered an extraordinary verdict.
A victory for the Greens
For the Green Party, the result was historic.
Hannah Spencer became the party’s first MP from a Westminster by-election victory.
The Greens had been trying to establish themselves as a serious national political force.
Gorton and Denton provides them with one of their strongest pieces of evidence yet.
This was not a comfortable Labour-held seat where the Greens simply benefited from a divided opposition.
They won decisively.
Their 40.7 per cent vote share was far ahead of both Reform and Labour.
And the scale of the victory immediately raised questions about whether Britain’s political landscape is becoming much more fragmented.
Reform’s breakthrough
Yet there was another story hidden inside the result.
Reform UK came second.
That matters enormously.
Matt Goodwin secured 10,578 votes and 28.7 per cent.
Reform had been hoping to turn its growing national popularity into another dramatic by-election victory.
It did not quite manage it.
But finishing ahead of Labour in a constituency like Gorton and Denton is itself a major political achievement.
Reform had targeted the seat aggressively.
The party understood that a strong performance would demonstrate that its appeal extends deep into northern England.
The result suggests that it does.
Labour’s collapse
For Labour, the numbers are brutal.
The party received only 25.4 per cent of the vote.
That represents an extraordinary collapse compared with its performance at the previous general election.
The message from voters was unmistakable.
Many Labour supporters either switched parties or stayed at home.
And the destination of those voters is the critical question.
Some clearly moved towards the Greens.
Others moved towards Reform.
That means Labour is being squeezed from both sides.
The nightmare for Starmer
This is perhaps the biggest problem facing the Prime Minister.
Labour’s traditional electoral coalition is being challenged simultaneously by parties with completely different political philosophies.
The Greens are attracting voters who believe Labour has become too cautious or insufficiently progressive.
Reform is attracting voters who believe Labour has moved too far away from traditional working-class concerns.
These groups have little in common politically.
Yet they share one thing:
They were prepared to vote against Labour.
That is an uncomfortable reality for Starmer.
Why the result matters nationally
By-elections do not automatically predict general elections.
Local circumstances can have an enormous influence.
Candidate quality matters.
Campaign organisation matters.
Turnout matters.
Tactical voting matters.
And voters sometimes use by-elections to send governments a warning without necessarily intending to change governments at the next general election.
But some results are too dramatic to ignore.
Gorton and Denton is one of them.
A long-standing Labour seat has changed hands.
The Greens have made history.
Reform has finished second.
And Labour has fallen to third.
That combination will be studied across Westminster for months.
The Andy Burnham factor
The contest also carried an additional layer of political drama because of Andy Burnham.
The Greater Manchester mayor had sought to become Labour’s candidate.
His involvement generated speculation about his future and his relationship with Starmer.
The Labour leadership ultimately selected Angeliki Stogia instead.
After the result, that decision inevitably came under renewed scrutiny.
Critics will ask whether Burnham could have performed better.
There is no way to know.
But politically, the issue is unavoidable.
The by-election had already become a proxy battle over the direction of Labour.
The result has only intensified that debate.
Reform’s message to northern voters
Reform will take enormous confidence from the result.
The party has spent years attempting to break into traditional Labour territory.
Farage’s movement has increasingly targeted voters who feel ignored by the established parties.
Immigration is central to that strategy.
So are taxes, public services, crime and national identity.
Gorton and Denton demonstrates that Reform can compete seriously in a northern constituency.
It does not prove that Reform will win such seats everywhere.
But it does make the possibility much harder to dismiss.
The Green challenge is equally serious
Labour cannot simply respond by focusing on Reform.
The Greens have demonstrated another route to defeating the party.
They can attract voters who want stronger action on climate change, public services, inequality and progressive social policies.
In many constituencies, Labour may therefore face a three-way contest.
That could make the electoral mathematics extremely difficult.
Under Britain’s first-past-the-post system, a divided opposition can sometimes help Labour.
But a divided Labour vote can be just as damaging.
The psychological effect
Politics is not only about numbers.
It is also about confidence.
A party that repeatedly loses elections can develop a reputation for losing.
Candidates become less enthusiastic.
Donors become nervous.
Activists become demoralised.
Voters begin asking whether their vote is wasted.
That psychological process can become self-reinforcing.
Labour will therefore be desperate to prevent Gorton and Denton from becoming a symbol of permanent decline.
Starmer’s response
Starmer has already faced pressure to explain what the result means.
His challenge is to avoid sounding defensive.
Simply blaming tactical voting or local circumstances will not be enough.
Labour needs to explain why voters who once regarded it as their natural political home are now prepared to choose other parties.
That is a much more difficult question.
The working-class problem
One of the most significant issues is Labour’s relationship with working-class voters.
For much of its history, Labour could rely on a strong emotional connection with working-class communities across northern England.
That connection has weakened.
Gorton and Denton provides another warning.
Reform’s second-place finish suggests that some voters are receptive to Farage’s message.
The Greens’ victory suggests others want a different kind of progressive politics.
Labour is caught between competing alternatives.
A warning about Reform
Reform will be tempted to describe the result as proof that Labour is collapsing.
That would be premature.
Reform did not win.
The Greens did.
But Reform’s performance remains highly significant.
Finishing second with nearly 29 per cent is enough to demonstrate that the party is capable of challenging Labour seriously.
The next question is whether it can convert such performances into actual victories.
A warning about the Greens
The Greens face their own challenge.
Winning a by-election is one thing.
Building a national parliamentary operation is another.
They will now face enormous expectations.
Every future contest will be compared with Gorton and Denton.
Their opponents will attempt to portray the victory as a local exception.
The Greens will need to prove that it was the beginning of a wider movement.
Labour’s political crossroads
For Starmer, the result raises a much bigger question.
What does modern Labour stand for?
Is it primarily a party of economic growth?
A party of public services?
A progressive social movement?
A working-class party?
A centrist governing party?
Or some combination of all of these?
The problem is that different voters may want different answers.
And the Gorton and Denton result suggests that some Labour voters are no longer willing to wait for the party to decide.
The danger of complacency
Perhaps the biggest lesson is that historic political loyalties cannot be taken for granted.
The Labour Party once regarded Gorton as a safe political territory.
Now it has lost the seat.
That should send a message to every major party in Britain.
Safe seats can disappear.
Traditional voters can switch.
New parties can rise.
And political assumptions can collapse remarkably quickly.
The battle ahead
The next general election remains a different contest.
But the political map has already changed.
Reform wants to become the main challenger to Labour in working-class areas.
The Greens want to become the main progressive alternative.
The Conservatives are still fighting to rebuild themselves.
Labour therefore faces competition from multiple directions.
That is an extremely difficult environment for any governing party.
What Gorton and Denton really tells us
The result should not simply be described as “a Labour defeat”.
It is more significant than that.
It shows the fragmentation of Britain’s traditional political loyalties.
The Greens can now win a former Labour stronghold.
Reform can finish ahead of Labour in the same constituency.
And Labour can fall to third place despite decades of dominance.
That is a remarkable transformation.
The final warning for Starmer
Keir Starmer may eventually recover.
Governments have suffered by-election defeats before.
Voters can change their minds.
Political circumstances can change.
But he cannot afford to dismiss this result.
The numbers are too stark.
The symbolism is too powerful.
And the political message is too clear.
Labour is no longer guaranteed the loyalty of voters who once regarded it as their natural political home.
In Gorton and Denton, those voters had alternatives.
They chose them.
Hannah Spencer and the Greens made history.
Reform demonstrated that it can seriously compete in Labour territory.
And Labour was left staring at a result few in Westminster would have predicted only a short time ago.
The most damaging number for Starmer may not even be 40.7 per cent, the Green vote.
It may be 25.4 per cent.
Because that is the share Labour received after losing a constituency that had once looked almost impossible to take from it.
The warning is unmistakable.
Britain’s old political map is disappearing.
And if Labour cannot rebuild its connection with voters quickly, Gorton and Denton may be remembered not simply as an embarrassing by-election defeat, but as the moment Westminster finally realised just how dramatically the political ground beneath Keir Starmer had shifted.