Andy Burnham Wanted to Knock Farage Out – but He’s Back on His Feet
When Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, one of the biggest questions facing British politics was whether he could finally halt Nigel Farage’s extraordinary rise. Burnham had been brought into Downing Street after Labour’s disastrous political performance and was widely seen as the politician capable of reconnecting the party with voters who had drifted towards Reform UK.
For a brief period, it appeared to be working.
Labour rapidly closed the gap with Reform in the opinion polls after Burnham took office. Reuters reported in late July that Labour had caught up with, and in some surveys overtaken, Farage’s party after Reform had led most polls for more than a year.
But politics moves quickly.
Just weeks after appearing vulnerable, Farage has demonstrated that he is not going quietly. His victory in the Clacton by-election has given him another platform, while Reform remains a powerful force in British politics. The result is a reminder that Burnham may have weakened the Farage threat, but he has certainly not defeated it.
Farage won 63% of the vote in Clacton, defeating a field dominated by independent and fringe candidates. Count Binface, the satirical candidate, finished second with roughly 27%, while Farage secured more than 22,000 votes.
The result was unusual because the major established parties did not contest the election in the traditional way. That makes it dangerous to treat the vote as a straightforward national opinion poll. Nevertheless, it delivered Farage something he badly needed: momentum.
For months, Reform had enjoyed a remarkable rise. The party’s success in local and regional elections had shaken both Labour and the Conservatives. Farage’s political message — particularly on immigration, national sovereignty and dissatisfaction with the established political system — had attracted voters who felt ignored by the traditional parties.
Burnham’s response was to offer a very different form of populism.
His message is based on public services, regional investment and economic reform rather than the anti-immigration politics associated with Reform. His political career as Greater Manchester mayor gives him credibility when he talks about buses, local government and devolution.
Since entering Downing Street, Burnham has attempted to turn that experience into a national programme. He has promised greater public control of essential services and has established plans for a “Number 10 North” hub in Manchester, designed to shift economic decision-making away from Whitehall and towards the regions.
The strategy is clear: give voters something tangible to support.
If Burnham can make buses cheaper, improve housing, reduce homelessness and demonstrate that government can deliver practical improvements, he hopes voters who became attracted to Reform’s promise of change will return to Labour.
There are already signs that this strategy could work.
Polling in August showed Labour holding a narrow lead over Reform, while YouGov found Burnham’s personal favourability rating to be the highest recorded for a British prime minister in more than six years.
That is an extraordinary turnaround.
But personal popularity can disappear quickly, especially when voters begin to judge a government on its economic record rather than its first impressions.
And that is where Farage’s survival becomes important.
Farage does not need to defeat Burnham immediately. He simply needs to remain relevant.
If Reform maintains a substantial core vote, Labour cannot afford to ignore the issues that drove voters towards the party in the first place. Immigration, crime, welfare, taxation and the cost of living remain politically potent subjects.
Indeed, Burnham has already found himself under pressure to adopt tougher positions on immigration. The political challenge is obvious: if Labour moves too far towards Reform, it risks alienating traditional progressive voters. If it refuses to move, Reform can accuse Labour of ignoring concerns about borders and national identity.
Farage benefits from that dilemma.
He has spent years positioning himself outside the political establishment. When mainstream parties adopt elements of his agenda, he can claim victory. When they refuse, he can argue that they do not understand ordinary voters.
That makes him remarkably difficult to eliminate.
Burnham’s problem is therefore bigger than one election result. He must change the underlying political conditions that allowed Reform to rise.
That means addressing why voters became dissatisfied with Labour in the first place.
In parts of northern England, the problem is particularly acute. Labour suffered a devastating performance in the May 2026 local elections, including losing control of Barnsley council to Reform. Barnsley had historically been one of Labour’s strongest areas.
Yet the same voters have not necessarily closed the door on Labour.
Reports from Barnsley suggest that some former Labour voters who switched to Reform are reconsidering their decision following Burnham’s arrival. His background, regional identity and emphasis on practical government appear to have made at least some voters more willing to listen.
This is precisely why Burnham was such an attractive choice for Labour.
He is not simply another Westminster politician. He can claim a record of governing a large metropolitan region and has developed a political identity built around northern England.
But Farage has a different advantage.
He has spent decades building a personal political brand.
He understands how to dominate political debate, generate headlines and turn controversies into opportunities. Even when he is under pressure, he can often use the attention itself to reinforce his argument that the political establishment is trying to silence him.
His recent difficulties have been serious. He faces renewed scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million donation and gifts connected with a former aide, while his decision not to appear at the Clacton count attracted further criticism.
Those controversies should have weakened him.
Yet his overwhelming Clacton victory demonstrates the limits of assuming that political controversy automatically destroys support.
For Burnham, this should be a warning.
The Prime Minister cannot simply wait for Farage to make mistakes. He needs to defeat the arguments that made Reform successful.
That means improving public services, but also addressing immigration. It means creating economic growth, but also ensuring that ordinary households feel the benefits. It means talking about inequality without allowing voters to believe that Labour is more interested in ideological debates than everyday problems.
Most importantly, Burnham needs to show that government can deliver.
This is why his plans for regional economic growth could become so important. Burnham wants to challenge the traditional concentration of economic power in London and give regions greater control over investment and development. His “Number 10 North” proposal is intended to make Manchester a second centre of government economic decision-making.
If that strategy produces jobs, investment and better infrastructure, Burnham could demonstrate that Labour offers a genuine alternative to Reform’s politics.
If it produces bureaucracy, higher taxes and disappointing results, Farage will be waiting.
The Reform leader’s greatest strength is that he does not need to offer voters a perfect government. He only needs to persuade them that the existing system has failed.
That argument has already worked once.
Burnham therefore faces a race against time. His current polling advantage is encouraging, but it is not a guarantee of electoral success. Reform remains deeply embedded in parts of the country, and Farage has shown that he can recover from periods when commentators assume his momentum has disappeared.
The Clacton result should therefore be interpreted carefully. It does not prove that Reform is about to sweep the country. But neither can Labour afford to dismiss it as irrelevant.
Farage is back on his feet.
The question now is whether Burnham can keep him there — or whether the Prime Minister’s early popularity will fade before he has transformed it into lasting political support.
Burnham may have wanted to knock Farage out of the fight. But British politics rarely works that way.
Farage has survived leadership crises, political setbacks, controversies and periods when his party appeared to be disappearing. His political career has repeatedly been declared finished, only for him to return.
This time is unlikely to be different.
For Burnham, the lesson is simple: defeating Farage will require more than winning the polls for a few weeks. It will require convincing millions of voters that they no longer need Reform to express their frustration.
Until that happens, Nigel Farage remains very much in the fight.