Andy Burnham just reached Number 10 – and reality is ready to punch him in the face

So far, Burnham has been lucky. That’s no bad thing. Napoleon Bonaparte called luck “the ability to exploit accidents”. Keir Starmer was an accident waiting to happen, and Burnham took full advantage. He exploited another accident too. A Labour Party so bereft of talent that not a single MP or cabinet minister was willing to stand against him. Who wouldn’t feel lucky when Wes Streeting, Al Carns and Darren Jones are the only names in the frame? I had to double check how to spell the last two. That’s how invisible they are.

Burnham ran for Labour’s leadership in 2010 and 2015. He finished fourth, then a distant second. It’s not hard to see why he didn’t want to chance it this time. His luck has taken him to Number 10. Now he needs to show courage. But how brave is a man who’s ducked the chance to set out his stall to the party and the country? He also needs policies and so far he’s refused to tell us what they are, ducking interviews and dodging awkward questions. That has to change. Fast.

There’s one thing we do know Burnham wants to do. Spend more money. It’s the only way he can keep mutinous Labour MPs on his side. That was never going to be easy, given that there isn’t any money. And now it’s just got even harder, because his luck just took a big turn for the worse.

Britain is effectively broke. We owe almost £3trillion, 95% of our annual output, the danger level at which things threaten to get out of control. Rachel Reeves is on course to add another £140billion to the debt pile this year. In May alone, we spent £11.7billion servicing the interest on our debts. That money could be better spent elsewhere, like defence.

For a brief moment, it looked like the pressure was easing. Gilt yields, which measure the interest we pay on our debt, had started to slide after Donald Trump claimed he had secured peace in Iran, which was expected to drive down oil prices, inflation and ultimately interest rates. That’s now changed.

Trump is blazing wildly away again. He has no strategy, and no tactics. No prizes for guessing what Napoleon would think of him. The result? Gilt yields have jumped. Yesterday, 10-year yields nudged 5% again. That’s the point at which investors start to get nervous. If they hit 5.5%, it’s game over.

We can’t blame Burnham for Trump, but he still has to deal with the consequences. If the war drags on, oil prices, inflation and gilt yields will climb higher. Burnham can’t borrow more. He can’t spend more. And he really, really shouldn’t tax more, as that’s now just as likely to cut tax revenues as raise them.

What he must do is tell the deluded Labour Party some hard truths. He has to set out a bold plan to cut spending and bring the nation’s finances under control before we suffer a sterling crisis and end up in the hands of the IMF.

That would have been tough at the best of times, but it will be almost impossible because he doesn’t have a mandate to do it. His strategy so far has been to tell the Labour Party exactly what it wants to hear, and it doesn’t want to hear that. He rode his luck to power, but his luck ran out on the very day of his coronation. And his enemies will soon be lining up to exploit it.