Andy Burnham Dealt Major Blow as New PM’s Popularity Plummets in Latest Poll
Andy Burnham has been handed an early warning that the honeymoon surrounding his premiership may not last forever, with a fresh poll showing a significant fall in his personal approval rating.
The figures come just weeks after Burnham entered Downing Street promising a different style of government and enjoying an immediate surge in attention. His early popularity had been one of the defining features of his arrival in No 10, with several surveys suggesting that voters viewed him more positively than his predecessor and opposition rivals.
But the latest numbers provide a reminder that political popularity can disappear remarkably quickly.
According to the latest Opinium voting-intention poll, Burnham remains the most favourably viewed major political leader, but his net approval rating has fallen five points in a week to +11. Labour continues to lead Reform UK, 27% to 25%, while the Conservatives sit on 18%.
That is hardly a political disaster.
But it is a warning.
For a Prime Minister whose arrival was accompanied by talk of a “Burnham bounce”, any sudden decline in personal popularity will attract attention. The question now is whether the fall represents a temporary adjustment after the initial excitement of a change of government — or the beginning of a much more difficult period for Burnham.
The honeymoon is already being tested
Burnham entered Downing Street with an advantage that few recent British Prime Ministers have enjoyed.
He was already a nationally recognisable political figure after years as Mayor of Greater Manchester. His informal style, northern identity and reputation for direct communication had helped him establish a distinctive political brand long before reaching No 10.
That translated into strong early polling.
Ipsos found that Burnham was preferred as Prime Minister to both Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. The poll also found that Burnham was more liked than either opposition leader, although seven in ten voters remained dissatisfied with the way the government was running the country.
That combination is significant.
It suggests that voters can like Burnham personally without necessarily being convinced that his government is performing well.
And that may become one of the central challenges of his premiership.
A Prime Minister cannot govern indefinitely on personal appeal. Eventually, voters want to see results.
From “Burnham bounce” to Burnham reality
The early weeks of the new government generated considerable optimism among Labour supporters.
Polling in August showed Labour recovering its position against Reform, with several surveys putting the party ahead. Opinium’s latest figures maintain that narrow advantage, while other polling has similarly indicated that Labour has benefited from Burnham’s arrival.
The Financial Times has described Burnham as enjoying a political honeymoon, noting that his early policies have been relatively modest but have connected with voters. His government has focused on practical measures involving areas such as transport, homelessness, farming and regional development.
That approach has an obvious political appeal.
After years of political turbulence, voters may welcome a Prime Minister who appears less interested in grand ideological battles and more interested in practical improvements.
But a honeymoon is, by definition, temporary.
Eventually the government has to confront the decisions that cannot be postponed.
For Burnham, those decisions are now approaching rapidly.
The autumn could change everything
The biggest threat to Burnham’s popularity may not be coming from the opposition at all.
It may come from his own government’s first serious policy choices.
Parliament is due to return to a much more difficult political environment, with prison overcrowding, welfare reform, immigration, public spending and the economy all demanding attention.
Burnham’s first major Budget is scheduled for October, and the government is facing pressure over the difficult balance between spending commitments, borrowing and taxation.
This is where personal popularity can become a liability.
When voters like a politician, they often expect that politician to deliver.
If Burnham is forced to raise taxes, reduce spending or abandon popular promises, disappointment could be sharper precisely because expectations are currently relatively high.
The Prime Minister has therefore reached a critical stage.
The question is no longer simply whether people like Andy Burnham.
It is whether they believe Andy Burnham can make their lives better.
A worrying gap between Burnham and his government
One of the most interesting features of recent polling is the gap between Burnham’s personal ratings and public satisfaction with the government.
Ipsos found that Burnham remains personally popular, yet around 70% of respondents were dissatisfied with how the government is running the country. Four in ten did not yet have an opinion about his performance as Prime Minister.
That creates an opportunity — but also a danger.
The opportunity is obvious.
A large proportion of voters have not yet made up their minds about Burnham. If his government delivers visible improvements, he could potentially convert that uncertainty into support.
The danger is that undecided voters may become negative rather than positive.
Political leaders often discover that the public is initially willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Once difficult decisions arrive, that goodwill can evaporate.
Burnham’s challenge is to make sure that does not happen.
Reform remains close behind
The political backdrop makes the situation even more difficult.
Although Labour is ahead of Reform in the latest Opinium poll, the gap is only two percentage points. Reform is therefore close enough to threaten Labour’s position if Burnham’s popularity weakens further.
Nigel Farage’s party has already demonstrated its ability to turn public dissatisfaction into electoral support.
Reform’s appeal is strongest among voters who feel that mainstream political parties have failed to address issues such as immigration, taxation, housing and public services.
Burnham cannot simply assume that his personal popularity will neutralise that threat.
Indeed, one of the most important tests of his leadership will be whether he can persuade voters who previously moved towards Reform that Labour has changed sufficiently to deserve another chance.
That requires more than good communication.
It requires tangible results.
The danger of overpromising
Burnham’s political style has always been based on presenting himself as a politician who understands everyday frustrations.
That is one reason his early emphasis on relatively practical measures has worked.
But the strategy has an obvious limitation.
Britain’s biggest problems cannot all be solved with small announcements.
Housing shortages require enormous investment and planning reform. The NHS requires sustained resources and structural change. Public finances require difficult choices. Immigration requires politically sensitive decisions. The welfare system faces growing pressure.
None of these problems has an easy answer.
If Burnham promises too much, voters may eventually accuse him of failing to deliver.
If he promises too little, they may conclude that his government lacks ambition.
Finding the balance will define the next phase of his premiership.
The numbers are not yet a catastrophe
It is important not to exaggerate the significance of the latest poll.
A net approval rating of +11 still leaves Burnham in positive territory and makes him considerably more popular than several rival political leaders.
Opinium’s figures show Kemi Badenoch on -4, Ed Davey on -6, Zack Polanski on -24 and Nigel Farage on -28. Burnham also retains a substantial advantage over Badenoch and Farage when voters are asked who would make the best Prime Minister.
YouGov’s August political favourability data similarly indicates that Burnham’s standing remains unusually strong by recent prime-ministerial standards.
So describing the latest figures as a collapse would be misleading.
What they show instead is something more subtle.
The extraordinary boost that accompanied Burnham’s arrival may be beginning to moderate.
That is entirely normal.
The real test begins now
Every new Prime Minister eventually moves from campaigning to governing.
Campaigning rewards optimism. Governing requires compromise.
Campaigners can promise that difficult problems will be fixed. Governments have to decide who pays, who benefits and what has to be sacrificed.
Burnham is now approaching that second stage.
His political success will depend on whether he can retain the personal qualities that made him popular while demonstrating that he can make difficult decisions when necessary.
That is a much harder test than winning favourable headlines.
The latest poll should therefore be viewed less as a disaster for Burnham than as an early warning.
His popularity remains an asset. Labour remains ahead of Reform. He remains more popular than his principal opponents.
But the direction of travel matters.
If his approval rating continues to fall while voters become increasingly dissatisfied with the government, the political narrative could change remarkably quickly.
The “Burnham bounce” could become yesterday’s story.
And once the honeymoon ends, the Prime Minister will have nowhere left to hide behind his reputation.
He will have to rely on results.
For Andy Burnham, that may be the most important poll of all.