Labour has been dealt a devastating blow after voters turned their back on Keir Starmer’s party in the latest Welsh by-election.
The winners of the by-election in the Fishbourne North East ward, part of Pembrokeshire County Council, were announced this morning, with defending Labour ceding control of the seat to Plaid Cymru.
Only 11.1 per cent of votes were awarded to Labour, putting them in fourth place in the contest (83 votes).
The result marks a 47.9 percentage point drop for the party since the previous election in 2022, in what could be an omen ahead of the local elections in May.
Plaid Cymru’s William Shaw was announced as the newly elected councillor to Pembrokeshire County Council after winning 33.8 per cent of the vote (253 votes).
The result saw the Welsh nationalist party win a 118-vote majority over the Lib Dem runner-up.
Ed Davey’s party took home 18 per cent of the vote (135 votes), while Reform UK came in third with 12.7 per cent (95 votes).
Reform’s third-place ranking comes after Nigel Farage’s party topped the polls in the Ynys Gybi (Ynys Môn) by-election last Thursday in the Isle of Anglesey, gaining a previously held Plaid Cymru seat.
Plaid Cymru councillor William Shaw won the previously Labour held seat with 34% of the votes
Independent candidate Teresa Ruth Tannahill came in fifth, with 79 votes, representing 10.5 per cent of the vote share.
The Conservative Party came in a distant sixth with 9.2 per cent (69 votes).
Brian Andrew Murphy’s result for the Welsh Tory party marked a 31.9 per cent drop in vote share compared to the results of the 2022 contest.
Coming in last place was independent Adrian John Tyrrell with 35 votes (4.7 per cent).
Sir Keir Starmer’s party dropped nearly 50 percentage points since the last election
The Fishbourne North East by-election had a turnout of almost 50 per cent with 749 people voting.
Following his win, Cllr William Shaw wrote on Facebook: “Thank you Fishguard NE for electing me as your County Councillor.”
The ward sits within the Ceredigion Preseli constituency in the west of Wales, which is represented by Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake.
A by-election in the ward was called following the death of independent councillor Jordan Ryan in November.
THE FULL RESULTS:
- William Shaw – Plaid Cymru – 33.8 per cent
- Caleb Churchill – Liberal Democrats – 18 per cent
- Peter John – Reform UK – 12.7 per cent
- Paul Howe – Labour – 11.1 per cent
- Teresa Tannahill – Independent – 10.5 per cent
- Brian Murphy – Conservatives – 9.2 per cent
- Adrian Tyrrell – Independent – 4.7 per cent
Rhun ap Iorwerth, Member of the Senedd for Ynys Môn, wrote on X: “Big win for Billy Shaw – a real community champion.
“Labour’s time is up. For too long, they’ve let Wales down.
“Plaid Cymru’s positive vision offers Wales a fresh start, and we can stop Reform in its tracks.
“Let’s deliver that new leadership for Wales together in May!”
Next week, Welsh voters again will head to the polling stations in the Van ward in Caerphilly, alongside English council by-elections in the Stoneygate ward in Leicester and the Zetland ward in Redcar and Cleveland.
In all three wards, Labour faces an uphill struggle to defend its seats.
LABOUR VOTE COLLAPSES IN WELSH SEAT AS VOTERS PASS DAMNING JUDGEMENT ON KEIR STARMER’S PARTY – REFORM SURGES AND PLAID CYMRU SEIZES HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY!
A political earthquake has shaken Wales as Labour suffers a devastating electoral setback, exposing the growing frustration among voters who once considered the party the natural political home of working-class communities.
The result has sent shockwaves through Westminster and raised serious questions about the future of Labour under Keir Starmer.
For generations, Labour enjoyed an extraordinary political advantage across Wales.
Former mining communities, industrial towns, and working-class constituencies provided the party with a dependable electoral foundation.
But that relationship has been deteriorating, and recent election results have demonstrated just how dramatically the political landscape has changed.
One of the most striking examples came in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election on 23 October 2025.
Labour, which had held the constituency for more than a century, suffered a humiliating defeat.
Plaid Cymru candidate Lindsay Whittle secured victory with approximately 47.4 per cent of the vote.
Reform UK finished second with 35.9 per cent, while Labour collapsed into third place with just 11 per cent.
The result represented a devastating reversal for a party that had once dominated Welsh politics.
It was not simply another electoral defeat.
It was a warning that traditional political loyalties could no longer be taken for granted.
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The consequences extended far beyond one constituency.
Voters in Caerphilly delivered a message that Labour’s historic reputation was no longer enough to guarantee support.
For Starmer, the result raised uncomfortable questions about whether his government had become disconnected from the communities that helped deliver Labour’s landslide victory in 2024.
A HISTORIC LABOUR STRONGHOLD SLIPS AWAY
Caerphilly has enormous symbolic importance in Welsh politics.
For decades, it represented the strength of Labour’s relationship with industrial communities.
The constituency was part of a political landscape shaped by mining, manufacturing, trade unions, and generations of working-class activism.
Labour’s decline there therefore carried significance beyond the immediate result.
When a party loses a constituency that has supported it for generations, political strategists must consider whether something much deeper is happening.
The result suggested that voters were increasingly willing to look elsewhere for political representation.
Plaid Cymru successfully presented itself as an alternative capable of challenging Labour’s traditional dominance.
Reform UK also demonstrated that it could attract substantial support in areas where the Conservatives had historically struggled.
Labour, meanwhile, found itself squeezed between competing political movements.
The party’s defeat was particularly damaging because it occurred in a constituency that had been regarded as one of its safest political territories.
REFORM UK EXPLOITS GROWING FRUSTRATION
One of the most important developments was the dramatic increase in support for Reform UK.
Although the party failed to win Caerphilly, its second-place finish demonstrated the scale of its growing influence.
Nigel Farage has repeatedly argued that traditional political parties have failed working-class communities.
His message focuses on immigration, national sovereignty, public services, taxation, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment.
These issues have resonated with voters who believe their economic circumstances have deteriorated despite repeated political promises.
Reform’s performance demonstrated that the party could compete seriously in areas once considered firmly Labour territory.
It also placed additional pressure on Starmer, whose government must now convince voters that Labour remains capable of delivering meaningful improvements.
The political danger is clear.
If Reform continues attracting voters who previously supported Labour, the party could face significant difficulties in future parliamentary and devolved elections.
However, Plaid Cymru’s victory also demonstrated that Reform is not the only beneficiary of Labour’s decline.
Different communities are responding to Labour’s difficulties in different ways, creating a more fragmented political landscape.