Reform also accumulated a vote-weighted aggregate share of 23 per cent.

Despite a so-called “Burnham Bounce”, Labour took nine seats with a combined share of 22.2 per cent.

The Conservatives placed third on both counts, claiming six seats and 16.7 per cent of the aggregate vote.

The Liberal Democrats matched that tally of six seats but managed only 12.4 per cent across the 40 contests.

The Greens won four seats on a notably higher vote share of 14.6 per cent.

Plaid Cymru took two seats, while the SNP and an independent candidate each secured one.

Smaller parties and local groupings failed to win any seats, polling roughly 2.5 per cent between them.

Approximately 91,745 ballots were cast across the full set of by-elections during the period.

GB News analysis used a votes-weighted average rather than a simple mean of percentages, calculated by multiplying turnout by the published percentage in each contest and then dividing by total turnout across all 40 by-elections.

The figures rely on published rounded percentages, meaning the share attributed to each party carries an estimated margin of error of roughly 0.3 percentage points.

The data also reflects seats won during the period rather than net gains or losses relative to the previous holders of those council seats.

When accounting for net gain, Mr Farage’s party won three seats, tripling Labour’s solitary net addition.

The Liberal Democrats matched Reform’s tally, also finishing up three seats.

The Conservatives emerged as the period’s undisputed losers, suffering a net deficit of five seats.

The Tories defended only 11 of the 40 by-elections, yet still saw the most councillors losing their seats.

Reform’s nine victories drew heavily from Conservative territory, with five Tory seats flipping in Cuxton, Heacham, Snettisham, Hutton & Locking, and East Markham.

The party also seized three from Labour and one from an Independent.

However, the party surrendered six of its own wards, four falling to Labour in Grays Riverside, Grays Town, Penistone East, and Billinge & Seneley Green, while two went to the Lib Dems in Almondbury and St Neots Eynesbury.

The Lib Dems picked up seats without conceding any they held.

Both Labour and the Greens ended with a net gain of one despite considerable churn in both directions.

The SNP and Independents each dropped a seat, whilst Plaid Cymru held steady.

The results follow the May 2026 local elections, where Reform UK achieved historic gains, securing over 1,450 council seats across England, taking control of 14 local councils, and breaking heavily into both Labour and Conservative heartlands.

Speaking on those results, Mr Farage said the party’s results in the Red Wall were “truly astonishing”.

Addressing supporters in Chelmsford, he said: “We’ve absolutely walked it, we’re majority control in Sunderland. We’re majority control in Gateshead. We’re majority control in South Tyneside”

He added: “We are directly taking votes from patriotic old Labour in areas that, frankly, they’ve been pretty much able to take for granted since the end of World War I.”

GB News has approached Reform UK and the Labour Party for comment.

Reform Is Outpacing Labour Since Andy Burnham Became PM, Data Shows

Reform UK has emerged as a significant force in council by-elections since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, according to an analysis of results covering the first two months of his premiership.

The figures, reported by GB News, suggest that Nigel Farage’s party has performed strongly in a series of local contests, winning more seats than any other party and recording the highest aggregate vote share across the elections examined.

However, the picture is more complicated when national opinion polling is taken into account. Several recent polls have placed Labour ahead of Reform, meaning that local-election performance and national voting intention are currently telling somewhat different stories.

The contrast highlights the fluid nature of British politics only a few months into Burnham’s premiership.

Reform’s council by-election performance

According to GB News analysis, Reform UK won 11 seats across 40 council by-election contests held between July 20 and September 18, covering the first 60 days after Burnham entered Downing Street.

The analysis put Reform’s vote-weighted aggregate share at approximately 23 per cent across those contests.

That figure is significant because council by-elections are often viewed as useful indicators of local political sentiment. They can reveal changes in party support between general elections and can provide smaller parties with opportunities to demonstrate whether national polling support translates into actual votes.

At the same time, local by-elections should not be treated as a direct substitute for a nationwide general-election poll.

Turnout is generally much lower than at a general election, individual candidates can have a substantial impact, and the issues dominating one particular ward may differ considerably from those influencing voters across the country.

The data nevertheless provides evidence that Reform has continued to make electoral gains at local level during Burnham’s first weeks as Prime Minister. 

National polling tells a different story

While Reform’s council results have attracted attention, recent national polling has generally placed Labour narrowly ahead.

The latest Ipsos poll, conducted between September 10 and 15 among 1,031 British adults, put Labour on 27 per cent and Reform UK on 23 per cent.

The Conservatives were on 21 per cent, followed by the Greens on 13 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent.

That represented a four-point Labour advantage over Reform.

Ipsos also found that 35 per cent of respondents preferred Burnham as Prime Minister, compared with 14 per cent for Farage and 15 per cent for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

However, the poll also revealed substantial dissatisfaction with the Government. Seven in ten respondents said they were dissatisfied with the way the Government was running the country, while only 18 per cent expressed satisfaction. 

The figures therefore demonstrate that strong support for Burnham personally does not necessarily mean widespread satisfaction with the Government.

Reform remains close behind

Other polling has produced a similar picture of a closely contested race.

Opinium’s survey conducted between September 16 and 18 put Labour on 27 per cent, with Reform on 24 per cent.

The Conservatives were on 18 per cent, while the Greens stood at 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats at 10 per cent.

Labour therefore retained a three-point advantage in that survey.

The previous Opinium poll had placed Labour two points ahead, suggesting that the gap had widened slightly in the latest measurement, although the movement was within the range where changes from one poll to another should be interpreted cautiously. 

Earlier in September, Opinium had Labour on 27 per cent and Reform on 25 per cent.

Taken together, these surveys show that Reform remains highly competitive nationally even though it is not currently leading the latest major polls.

The “Burnham bounce”

Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street initially produced signs of increased Labour support in some polling.

An Ipsos survey conducted in late August found that four in ten Britons had a favourable opinion of Burnham, an eight-point improvement compared with July.

The same research found that 50 per cent preferred a Labour government led by Burnham to a Reform government led by Farage, which was selected by 29 per cent.

Ipsos also reported that Reform continued to be viewed as the main alternative to Labour, particularly on immigration.

That suggests Burnham has been able to improve Labour’s position without eliminating Reform’s appeal among voters who want a different political direction. 

More recent Ipsos figures, however, indicate that Burnham’s personal ratings have become more mixed.

His satisfaction rating was 31 per cent, while 44 per cent were dissatisfied with his performance as Prime Minister. Ipsos noted that dissatisfaction had increased significantly during the month, although some of that change reflected fewer respondents selecting “don’t know”.

Meanwhile, Farage’s personal ratings remained considerably weaker than Reform’s party support.

Ipsos found that 69 per cent had an unfavourable view of Farage, compared with 24 per cent who viewed him favourably.

This distinction between a party and its leader is important when interpreting Reform’s performance.

Wales provides another example

Recent polling from Wales illustrates just how complicated the national picture has become.

A YouGov/Barn Cymru poll conducted in September found Labour’s Westminster voting intention in Wales at 18 per cent, a ten-point increase from the previous poll.

Reform, however, remained ahead at 27 per cent, although that represented a seven-point decline compared with its May result.

The Conservatives were on 11 per cent, the Greens on 7 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 5 per cent.

The figures therefore showed a substantial improvement for Labour under Burnham while Reform remained the largest individual party in the Westminster voting-intention figures.

YouGov described the survey as the first Westminster poll in Wales since Burnham became Prime Minister. 

ITV Wales described the movement as a potential “Burnham bounce”, while noting that Reform had lost a substantial share of its previous support.

The findings demonstrate why a single headline about either party being “ahead” can be misleading.

Support varies significantly by region, election type and polling organisation.

Why local elections matter

The council by-election results remain important because they provide real votes rather than survey responses.

When voters actually enter polling stations, parties must persuade them to support specific candidates in specific communities.

Reform’s performance in these contests indicates that the party is capable of converting some of its national support into local electoral victories.

The party’s success also gives Farage’s organisation an opportunity to build a larger network of elected representatives.

That could become significant if Reform continues expanding its local presence.

But there are limits to interpreting the figures.

Council by-elections involve relatively small electorates, and a handful of unusually strong or weak contests can have a disproportionate effect on aggregate calculations.

National elections involve millions more voters and different campaign dynamics.

Consequently, the council data should be considered alongside, rather than instead of, national polling.

Immigration remains central

One factor continuing to benefit Reform is immigration.

Recent polling consistently identifies immigration as one of the most important issues for British voters.

Opinium’s September survey found immigration was selected by 51 per cent of respondents as one of the most important issues facing the country.

Health and the NHS followed on 47 per cent, while the economy was selected by 44 per cent.

Those priorities provide an important context for Reform’s continued competitiveness.

Farage has made immigration a central part of the party’s political message, while Burnham’s Government has also faced pressure to demonstrate that it can control irregular migration and address concerns about the asylum system.

The issue is therefore likely to remain important in the competition between the two parties.

Reform’s challenge

Despite its local successes, Reform faces its own challenges.

Ipsos found that only 22 per cent of British adults believed Reform was ready to form the next Government, while 60 per cent disagreed.

The figure was down from 25 per cent in January.

That suggests that the party’s electoral support does not necessarily translate into confidence that it is prepared to govern nationally.

Reform must therefore balance two objectives: maintaining its appeal as an outsider party while convincing voters that it can operate effectively at national level.

Its performance in council elections provides evidence of growing electoral organisation, but a general election requires a much broader political and organisational operation.

Labour’s challenge

Labour faces a different problem.

Burnham has improved the party’s position in several surveys, but national dissatisfaction with the Government remains high.

Ipsos found that only 27 per cent believed the Government was competent, although that was an improvement from 19 per cent the previous month.

The Government must therefore translate Burnham’s personal popularity into broader satisfaction with its policies.

That could depend heavily on the economy, public services, immigration, taxation and the Government’s ability to deliver its promises.

A favourable leadership rating can help a governing party, but voters ultimately judge governments on their record.

A contest that remains unsettled

The current data does not establish that Reform has overtaken Labour nationally.

Instead, it shows two different trends.

Reform has performed strongly in the council by-elections examined by GB News, winning 11 seats and recording the highest aggregate vote share among the parties during that period.

At the same time, Labour has retained a lead over Reform in recent national polls from Ipsos and Opinium.

The size of that lead varies, ranging from two to four percentage points in the recent surveys cited above.

Those differences are important because polling is a measurement of current voting intention, not a prediction of a future election result.

The next general election is not currently due until 2029, leaving considerable time for public opinion, party leadership and policy priorities to change.

For Burnham, the immediate political task is to maintain Labour’s improved position while addressing the dissatisfaction recorded in recent polling.

For Farage and Reform, the challenge is to turn strong local performances and substantial national support into a broader coalition of voters who also regard the party as ready to govern.

The evidence available so far therefore presents a divided picture.

Reform has demonstrated electoral strength in local contests since Burnham became Prime Minister. Labour, meanwhile, has maintained a narrow national polling lead and has recorded improvements in some regions, including Wales.

The competition between the two parties is consequently far from settled.

What the latest data does show is that Reform remains a major force in British politics, while Burnham’s Labour has experienced a measurable improvement compared with the period immediately before his arrival in Downing Street.

The coming months will reveal whether the local gains made by Reform develop into a sustained national trend, or whether Labour can maintain the polling advantage that it currently holds in several nationwide surveys.