With Andy Burnham set to become prime minister next week, all eyes are on what his top team could look like – but the contest over who will be his next chancellor is hotting up.
The former Greater Manchester Mayor’s premiership was cemented this week when he received the backing of 369 of the party’s 403 MPs, making it mathematically impossible for a rival to enter the contest, meaning he is set for a coronation.
The former mayor nearly enjoyed a clean sweep of declared nominations, had it not been for backbencher Neil Coyle selecting ex-minister Catherine West, who pulled back from mounting an unlikely leadership challenge against Sir Keir in May.
Mr Burnham, who was sworn in as an MP last month month, is facing demands from both inside and outside the Labour Party to generate real change when he enters Number 10.
This doesn’t just mean changes to policy, but also changes to the cabinet – with Mr Burnham likely to choose a team that reflects a broader range of views from within the party than the narrow one represented by Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet.
Mr Burnham would, of course, have close allies who he would want to reward with top jobs. But when he gets to the point of naming his cabinet, it will be one role more than any other that will shape his government – his pick as chancellor.
Here, The Independent looks at who might be in the running for his top team.
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Who will be Burnham’s chancellor when he becomes prime minister?
After the prime minister, the role of chancellor is the most important role in government and Mr Burnham’s pick will be the biggest sign of a change of direction from Sir Keir.
While Rachel Reeves gave her backing to the MP for Makerfield in what was seen as a last ditch attempt to keep her job, it looks almost certain that she will be ousted from the Treasury – and potentially out of government altogether.
Along with her would go her economic policy and perhaps her tight borrowing rules – although Mr Burnham has already said he will stick by them.
There are now four names being widely discussed to be Mr Burnham’s prospective chancellor – Shabana Mahmood, Ed Miliband, Darren Jones and Wes Streeting.
These names represent very different approaches to the economy, with Ms Mahmood on the right of the party, Mr Streeting the Blairite centrist and Mr Miliband a leading figure on the soft left.
Shabana Mahmood
After weeks of wrangling, Ms Mahmood is now the frontrunner for the job. She is seen to be deeply competent after having gained a reputation as a tough home secretary. In an added bonus, her appointment would also allow Mr Burnham to get her out the Home Office and tweak her immigration policy.
The appointment of Ms Mahmood, who comes from the Labour right, would calm market jitters amid concerns that Mr Burnham in No 10 could unleash more borrowing. However, she has not previously held any economic roles as a minister.
Ed Miliband
Mr Miliband has been hankering for the job for some time and is a leading contender who would overhaul economic policy in a leftward direction.
While it had been reported that Mr Burnham is now backing off from the prospect of Mr Miliband in the Treasury over fears the pair could clash as a result of his support for expensive net zero policies, it was reported this week that the energy secretary could approve drilling in the North Sea to calm market jitters about his possible appointment as chancellor and prove he is no net zero “zealot”.
However, his history of taking a hard line approach to net zero policies have made him a controversial figure, and it is an image that will be hard to shake off.
Wes Streeting
Last month, The Independent revealed that Mr Streeting had been asking for the role of chancellor as part of a deal to drop from his own leadership bid – which he did the following week.
While his backing for Mr Burnham was certainly a strong bargaining chip, as it allowed the former Manchester mayor to sail through to No 10 without a contest, the ex-health secretary is deeply distrusted by the left of the party.
Mr Streeting, who has a reputation as a Blairite moderniser, would be a decisive choice as chancellor and sources close to the former health secretary have been keen to stress that he and Mr Burnham share significant similarities in their approach to the economy.
However, many see him to be too much of a toxic choice for the top job in Mr Burnham’s cabinet.
Darren Jones
Mr Jones instead is a centrist who represents what remains of the Starmer loyalists camp and would, as a former chief Treasury secretary to Ms Reeves, provide some continuity.
Mr Jones last month gave up on a threat to stand against Mr Burnham but with the hope, according to some Labour sources, that he would become chancellor instead of the one of the other frontrunners.
However, it is likely that his close association with the Starmer government would put Mr Burnham off from appointing him, as he won’t be seen as marking a change in direction.
More female MPs could be brought into cabinet
A number of female MPs would likely play key roles in a Mr Burnham cabinet.
Top of that list is Louise Haigh who was forced out of Sir Keir’s cabinet as transport minister over revelations of past criminal convictions involving fraud regarding mobile phones.
She has revived her career – not least as a pivotal figure in Mr Burnham’s campaign coordinating his push in Makerfield and wider bid to be the new Labour leader. If Mr Burnham becomes PM, she is expected to get the key coordination role of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster running the cabinet Office, the engine of government.
Allies of Ms Haigh have told The Independent that she has already been inked in as the new chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – running the cabinet Office and working closely with the prime minister and Downing Street.
Another key figure in his campaign was Knowsley MP Anneliese Midgley who would get a plum role, possibly in the cabinet as Leader of the Commons.
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is also poised for a comeback. She has quietly put aside her own leadership ambitions to back Mr Burnham. She was forced to resign over her tax affairs but now is looking at a top job, perhaps even home secretary.
Mr Burnham’s ally and party deputy leader Lucy Powell would also likely get a cabinet post and could end up as deputy leader. She may replace Steve Reed running local government, housing and communities, or possibly get the education gig.
The current culture secretary Lisa Nandy would be set for a promotion – she too will be eyeing education.
It will be interesting to see who would be given the defence secretary role in a Burnham government. The money is on former armed forces minister Al Carns, who recently resigned over defence spending. But do not rule out a return by John Healey – who also resigned as defence secretary. He could even land the foreign secretary job.
For Westminster gossip, intrigue and behind-the-scenes insight, sign up for John Rentoul’s Commons Confidential newsletter by becoming an Independent Premium subscriber here.
Who would be out?
There is a chance of wholesale change which means some surprising figures could be out. Deputy prime minister David Lammy, a close ally of Sir Keir, is widely expected to find himself on the backbenches.
There is also speculation that Mr Burnham would move on from the Morgan McSweeney allies – notably welfare secretary Pat McFadden and housing secretary Steve Reed, even though both are seen as highly competent.
Meanwhile, tech secretary Liz Kendall – who failed previously in the welfare job – is unlikely to land a role in any Burnham cabinet.
One of the issues may be what he would do with the current foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, who was early in telling Starmer that he needed to go. She is likely to survive a potential cull but would likely end up in a different job.
One thing, though, that is always true about new cabinet selections is that there are always surprise names which emerge.
But it may only be a few weeks until we find out.
With Andy Burnham set to become prime minister next week, all eyes are on what his top team could look like – but the contest over who will be his next chancellor is hotting up.
The former Greater Manchester Mayor’s premiership was cemented this week when he received the backing of 369 of the party’s 403 MPs, making it mathematically impossible for a rival to enter the contest, meaning he is set for a coronation.
The former mayor nearly enjoyed a clean sweep of declared nominations, had it not been for backbencher Neil Coyle selecting ex-minister Catherine West, who pulled back from mounting an unlikely leadership challenge against Sir Keir in May.
Mr Burnham, who was sworn in as an MP last month month, is facing demands from both inside and outside the Labour Party to generate real change when he enters Number 10.
This doesn’t just mean changes to policy, but also changes to the cabinet – with Mr Burnham likely to choose a team that reflects a broader range of views from within the party than the narrow one represented by Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet.
Mr Burnham would, of course, have close allies who he would want to reward with top jobs. But when he gets to the point of naming his cabinet, it will be one role more than any other that will shape his government – his pick as chancellor.
Here, The Independent looks at who might be in the running for his top team.
Who will be Burnham’s chancellor when he becomes prime minister?
After the prime minister, the role of chancellor is the most important role in government and Mr Burnham’s pick will be the biggest sign of a change of direction from Sir Keir.
While Rachel Reeves gave her backing to the MP for Makerfield in what was seen as a last ditch attempt to keep her job, it looks almost certain that she will be ousted from the Treasury – and potentially out of government altogether.
Along with her would go her economic policy and perhaps her tight borrowing rules – although Mr Burnham has already said he will stick by them.
There are now four names being widely discussed to be Mr Burnham’s prospective chancellor – Shabana Mahmood, Ed Miliband, Darren Jones and Wes Streeting.
These names represent very different approaches to the economy, with Ms Mahmood on the right of the party, Mr Streeting the Blairite centrist and Mr Miliband a leading figure on the soft left.
Shabana Mahmood
After weeks of wrangling, Ms Mahmood is now the frontrunner for the job. She is seen to be deeply competent after having gained a reputation as a tough home secretary. In an added bonus, her appointment would also allow Mr Burnham to get her out the Home Office and tweak her immigration policy.
The appointment of Ms Mahmood, who comes from the Labour right, would calm market jitters amid concerns that Mr Burnham in No 10 could unleash more borrowing. However, she has not previously held any economic roles as a minister.
Ed Miliband
Mr Miliband has been hankering for the job for some time and is a leading contender who would overhaul economic policy in a leftward direction.
While it had been reported that Mr Burnham is now backing off from the prospect of Mr Miliband in the Treasury over fears the pair could clash as a result of his support for expensive net zero policies, it was reported this week that the energy secretary could approve drilling in the North Sea to calm market jitters about his possible appointment as chancellor and prove he is no net zero “zealot”.
However, his history of taking a hard line approach to net zero policies have made him a controversial figure, and it is an image that will be hard to shake off.
Wes Streeting
Last month, The Independent revealed that Mr Streeting had been asking for the role of chancellor as part of a deal to drop from his own leadership bid – which he did the following week.
While his backing for Mr Burnham was certainly a strong bargaining chip, as it allowed the former Manchester mayor to sail through to No 10 without a contest, the ex-health secretary is deeply distrusted by the left of the party.
Mr Streeting, who has a reputation as a Blairite moderniser, would be a decisive choice as chancellor and sources close to the former health secretary have been keen to stress that he and Mr Burnham share significant similarities in their approach to the economy.
However, many see him to be too much of a toxic choice for the top job in Mr Burnham’s cabinet.
Darren Jones
Mr Jones instead is a centrist who represents what remains of the Starmer loyalists camp and would, as a former chief Treasury secretary to Ms Reeves, provide some continuity.
Mr Jones last month gave up on a threat to stand against Mr Burnham but with the hope, according to some Labour sources, that he would become chancellor instead of the one of the other frontrunners.
However, it is likely that his close association with the Starmer government would put Mr Burnham off from appointing him, as he won’t be seen as marking a change in direction.
More female MPs could be brought into cabinet
A number of female MPs would likely play key roles in a Mr Burnham cabinet.
Top of that list is Louise Haigh who was forced out of Sir Keir’s cabinet as transport minister over revelations of past criminal convictions involving fraud regarding mobile phones.
She has revived her career – not least as a pivotal figure in Mr Burnham’s campaign coordinating his push in Makerfield and wider bid to be the new Labour leader. If Mr Burnham becomes PM, she is expected to get the key coordination role of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster running the cabinet Office, the engine of government.
Allies of Ms Haigh have told The Independent that she has already been inked in as the new chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – running the cabinet Office and working closely with the prime minister and Downing Street.
Another key figure in his campaign was Knowsley MP Anneliese Midgley who would get a plum role, possibly in the cabinet as Leader of the Commons.
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is also poised for a comeback. She has quietly put aside her own leadership ambitions to back Mr Burnham. She was forced to resign over her tax affairs but now is looking at a top job, perhaps even home secretary.
Mr Burnham’s ally and party deputy leader Lucy Powell would also likely get a cabinet post and could end up as deputy leader. She may replace Steve Reed running local government, housing and communities, or possibly get the education gig.
The current culture secretary Lisa Nandy would be set for a promotion – she too will be eyeing education.
It will be interesting to see who would be given the defence secretary role in a Burnham government. The money is on former armed forces minister Al Carns, who recently resigned over defence spending. But do not rule out a return by John Healey – who also resigned as defence secretary. He could even land the foreign secretary job.
For Westminster gossip, intrigue and behind-the-scenes insight, sign up for John Rentoul’s Commons Confidential newsletter by becoming an Independent Premium subscriber here.
Who would be out?
There is a chance of wholesale change which means some surprising figures could be out. Deputy prime minister David Lammy, a close ally of Sir Keir, is widely expected to find himself on the backbenches.
There is also speculation that Mr Burnham would move on from the Morgan McSweeney allies – notably welfare secretary Pat McFadden and housing secretary Steve Reed, even though both are seen as highly competent.
Meanwhile, tech secretary Liz Kendall – who failed previously in the welfare job – is unlikely to land a role in any Burnham cabinet.
One of the issues may be what he would do with the current foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, who was early in telling Starmer that he needed to go. She is likely to survive a potential cull but would likely end up in a different job.
One thing, though, that is always true about new cabinet selections is that there are always surprise names which emerge.
But it may only be a few weeks until we find out.