Prisons will run out of space in November if Andy Burnham abandons Labour’s early release scheme, the adviser who drew up the plans has warned.

Sir David Gauke, the former Tory justice secretary who headed the independent review into sentencing, said prisons in England and Wales were “on course to run out of capacity in November” without the early release scheme.

His warning came after Mr Burnham announced a pause in the scheme following an outcry over the potential early release of Pc Andrew Harper’s killers, revealed by The Telegraph.

The Prime Minister said no prisoners would be freed under the scheme until the Government had completed a review and “done everything we can to minimise risk to the public”.

The Telegraph disclosed that Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole, the two killers of Pc Harper, were due to be freed halfway through their 13-year sentences for the manslaughter of the police officer in 2019.

Pc Harper had been investigating the theft of a quad bike in August that year when he was dragged more than a mile on country roads in the perpetrators’ getaway car.

Lissie Harper, his widow, said it was “deplorable that we have reached a point where releasing prisoners early is even considered acceptable”.

The policy allows serious criminals – including killers, rapists and child groomers – to be eligible for release halfway rather than two-thirds of the way through their sentences, provided they have not committed any serious rule breaches while in prison.

Criminals convicted of less serious offences are eligible to be freed as little as a third of the way through their sentences.

More than 5,000 prisoners including killers, rapists and violent criminals were set to be freed in monthly tranches from Sept 2.

But Mr Burnham is under pressure from MPs, victims, police and front-line prison officers to exempt the the most serious offenders, including killers, rapists, child groomers and criminals convicted of serious violence against emergency workers, from the scheme.

Sir David, the architect of the early release plan in his sentencing report, said there might be scope for the Government to introduce “narrowly-focused” exemptions that could apply, for example, to violent criminals who attacked police officers.

However, he added: “The problem is that there’s no easy way to draw a line which doesn’t either still leave some controversial cases or increase substantially the prison population.”

In a series of posts on X, he wrote: “The sentencing reforms were driven by necessity. Sentences increased, the release points increased, but capacity did not increase to reflect that. This resulted in a capacity crisis in 2024, with a short-term emergency release scheme implemented. We should want to avoid that.

“There is more space in our prisons today, but we should not aim to have prisons at capacity. We might have spaces – but in the wrong places or the wrong type of prison.

“Running at capacity makes it hard to deliver rehabilitation, and leaves the system vulnerable if there is a spike in criminality (for example riots), or if prison capacity is reduced suddenly.

“The current spare capacity won’t last long. Without the early release scheme, we are on course to run out of capacity in November, requiring emergency measures.”

Sir David also warned that there was a risk of disorder in prisons as a result of the pause, which would mean offenders who thought they were going to be freed early no longer would be.

Ministers have previously warned of rioting and disorder if prisons run out of space because police would be unable to arrest and detain offenders, leaving criminals free to “do whatever they want without consequence”.

“Prisoners have been told that they are due to be released in the autumn and preparations have been made for housing etc,” Sir David said. “Changing plans at short notice creates instability. The prison authorities will be worried about the risk of disorder, especially over the hot summer months.

“This is a tough issue. But a lengthy suspension of the scheme risks a capacity crisis, an over-stretched prison system and potential disorder. It also makes it harder to put our prison system on a long term sustainable basis.”

Warning Signs Grow as Britain’s Prisons Could Hit Full Capacity by November

The United Kingdom is facing a growing crisis as warning signs suggest that its prison system could reach full capacity by November. The situation has raised serious concerns among government officials, prison authorities, and experts who fear that overcrowding may place enormous pressure on an already struggling justice system.

For many years, Britain’s prisons have been dealing with increasing numbers of inmates. The growth in the prison population has been caused by several factors, including longer sentences, rising crime levels in some areas, and delays within the legal system. However, the expansion of prison facilities has not kept pace with the growing demand, creating a serious imbalance between the number of prisoners and the available space.

If prisons reach their maximum capacity, the consequences could be severe. Overcrowded prisons often lead to poorer living conditions, with prisoners having less personal space and fewer opportunities to access important services. Education programs, rehabilitation activities, and mental health support may also become more difficult to provide when facilities are under extreme pressure.

Another major concern is the impact on prison staff. Officers are already working in challenging environments, and overcrowding could increase their workload and stress levels. A shortage of staff combined with a rising number of prisoners may make it harder to maintain safety, prevent violence, and provide effective supervision.

The situation also raises important questions about Britain’s approach to criminal justice. Some experts argue that sending more people to prison is not always the most effective way to reduce crime. Without proper rehabilitation and support after release, former prisoners may struggle to rebuild their lives and could be at greater risk of committing further offences.

The government is under pressure to find immediate solutions. Possible measures include building new prison facilities, improving the efficiency of the justice system, expanding alternatives to prison for certain offences, and investing more in crime prevention programs. However, these solutions require significant funding and careful planning.

Beyond the prison system itself, the crisis reflects wider social issues. Problems such as poverty, unemployment, addiction, and poor mental health can contribute to criminal behaviour. Addressing these underlying causes may help reduce pressure on prisons in the long term and create a safer society.

The possibility of Britain’s prisons reaching full capacity by November serves as a serious warning. It highlights the need for urgent action and long-term reform. A successful justice system should not only punish people who break the law but also help them change their behaviour and successfully return to society.

As the deadline approaches, the British government faces a difficult challenge: balancing public safety with the need to create a prison system that is humane, effective, and sustainable. Without meaningful reforms, overcrowding may continue to threaten the stability of the country’s criminal justice system for years to come.