Nigel Farage’s party is growing in popularity (Image: Getty)
A new mega poll of UK voters shows that Reform UK would win a General Election if held tomorrow. The YouGov analysis, based on a survey of 13,000 people, reveals that Nigel Farage’s party would win 311 seats – a huge gain of 306 seats in the Commons.
Meanwhile, according to the poll, Labour would only manage to win 144 seats, which would be the party’s worst performance since 1931. This is a significant drop from the 411 they secured last year. The Lib Dems would hold 78 seats, and the Conservatives would be almost wiped out with 45 seats. The SNP would gain 37, and the Greens would get seven.
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According to the virtual map, Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband and Lisa Nandy would all lose their seats. The Tory frontbench will also be hit, with Robert Jenrick, Sir Mel Stride, Priti Patel and James Cleverly all ousted.
In response to the poll, Mr Farage said: “This new poll will spread panic amongst Labour and Tory MPs as they head to their party conferences.”
The news comes ahead of the Labour annual conference in Liverpool which begins on Sunday (September 28). Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will go into the conference facing a major leadership challenge with his party riven with splits.
Reform UK will likely dominate discussions at the conference. Their rise has been caused mainly by Starmer’s failure to stop small boat crossings, with tens of thousands of illegal migrants continuing to flood the UK.
New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that Britain’s population surged by 755,000 in the year to June 2024. This brings the UK population to 69.3 million, up by 1.1% on last year.
Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure heading into the Labour annual conference (Image: Getty)
Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham sparked speculation about a leadership coup this week, accusing Starmer of creating a “climate of fear” among Labour MPs, which has led to “alienation and demoralisation” within Labour. However, No.10 hit back and said Burnham’s plans are a threat to the economy.
The Prime Minister also faces questions on Gaza, with some party members saying his plans to recognise the state of Palestine do not go far enough. Others believe it amounts to rewarding Hamas’ terror attack on October 7.
Other issues including Labour’s tax raid on farmers, with the industry remaining furious at both Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. The group Farmers to Action will be in attendance on Sunday, with a “trailer of truth” signed by farmers across the country.
UK map reveals every area predicted to turn to Reform – check for yours
A new wave of constituency-level political modelling has highlighted just how dramatically Britain’s electoral map could change if a general election were held under current voting patterns. Reform UK has emerged as a major force in several projections, with models identifying constituencies where the party could gain from Labour or Conservative incumbents.
However, the latest figures also show why such maps should be treated as snapshots rather than predictions of a guaranteed result. Political support has shifted rapidly during 2026, and different polling models are producing significantly different pictures of what the House of Commons could look like.
One of the clearest illustrations comes from More in Common’s September 2026 MRP. Its latest model projects Reform UK to win 147 seats, compared with just five at the 2024 general election. Labour is projected to win 250, the Conservatives 125 and the Liberal Democrats 63. More in Common says its September findings represent a substantial change from its July model, when Reform was projected to win 293 seats.
That difference is important. It demonstrates that a constituency map can change considerably even without a general election taking place.
The areas where Reform has made gains
Reform’s potential gains are not confined to one part of Britain. The party’s support has developed across several different types of constituency, including former Labour industrial areas, Conservative-held seats and parts of the south and east of England.
The North East has been particularly important in the wider Reform story. Earlier modelling had shown the party making substantial gains across the region, with some traditional Labour constituencies becoming competitive.
Yet the latest More in Common model also demonstrates the volatility of that support. The organisation said Reform’s decline since July was particularly pronounced in the North East, where its projected vote share fell by eight points.
This means that a map showing Reform gains should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that every constituency previously identified as a Reform target remains in the same position today.
The same applies to Wales. Earlier modelling had suggested a substantial Reform advance in Welsh constituencies. More in Common’s July model projected Reform to win 21 Welsh seats, but its September model reduced that figure to six.
The change highlights one of the biggest challenges facing anyone trying to interpret constituency projections: political maps can move quickly when national vote shares change.
From the Red Wall to a much wider battleground
Reform’s rise has nevertheless changed the competitive landscape beyond the traditional Conservative-Labour contest.
At the 2024 general election, Reform won five Westminster seats. Since then, national polling and constituency modelling have repeatedly shown the party competing for seats that were previously regarded as relatively secure for one of the established parties.
Some of the most important potential contests are in former Labour strongholds. These include post-industrial communities where political loyalties have been changing over the past decade.
The pattern is particularly significant because Reform’s electoral strategy has attempted to combine support from voters who previously backed different parties. A constituency could therefore become competitive for Reform for very different reasons depending on its local political history.
A former Labour seat might be affected by Reform’s appeal among voters who are dissatisfied with Labour’s record. A Conservative seat, meanwhile, could become competitive because Reform attracts voters who previously supported the Conservatives.
The latest More in Common figures illustrate this two-way competition. Compared with its July model, Reform was projected to lose 101 seats to Labour and 43 to the Conservatives, while gaining six from the Conservatives.
That is a very different picture from the dramatic Reform expansion shown in earlier models.
Why the map can be misleading
The word “predicted” can make constituency maps sound more certain than they actually are.
MRP, or multilevel regression and post-stratification, uses polling data and demographic information to estimate support across individual constituencies. It can provide a detailed picture of possible electoral outcomes, but it cannot reproduce the actual campaign, turnout or local events that would occur during an election.
More in Common itself points out limitations in its latest modelling. Its September projection is based on its methodology and current data, meaning the result can change as public opinion changes.
Other models are also producing different numbers.
Electoral Calculus’ September 2026 model, for example, gives Reform UK a projected 132 seats, while Labour is projected to win 266, the Conservatives 119 and the Liberal Democrats 69.
Another constituency forecasting project currently produces a different national picture, projecting Labour on 334 seats, Reform on 95, the Conservatives on 100 and the Liberal Democrats on 72. It explicitly describes these figures as its own output rather than polling itself.
The differences are substantial.
This is why an electoral map should be read as an indication of where political competition may currently be strongest rather than as a definitive list of constituencies that will change hands.
Where does Reform stand against the Conservatives?
The battle between Reform and the Conservatives is especially important in parts of southern and eastern England.
More in Common’s July model showed the Conservatives recovering some ground in the South East, East Midlands and North East Scotland. The organisation said this recovery came partly at Reform’s expense.
The Home Counties and shire constituencies were another important area of movement. In the July model, More in Common reported that Reform had lost 31 projected seats to the Conservatives, concentrated particularly in the Home Counties, the shires and North East Scotland.
That matters because Reform’s rise does not automatically translate into the disappearance of Conservative representation.
Instead, the two parties are competing for some of the same voters.
This creates a complicated electoral environment in which a small change in the distribution of votes can have a much larger effect on the number of parliamentary seats won under Britain’s first-past-the-post system.
Labour faces a different challenge
For Labour, the Reform challenge has been particularly significant outside its strongest urban areas.
The July More in Common model projected Labour to win only 110 seats, with nearly half of those seats located in London. Reform was projected to take 216 seats from Labour in that particular model.
By September, however, Labour’s position had changed considerably. More in Common projected Labour to win 250 seats, while Reform fell to 147. The organisation said 143 of the 214 constituency projections that had changed since July had moved towards Labour.
This provides an important lesson when looking at headlines about an electoral “map”.
A constituency shown as a Reform gain in one survey may not appear that way in another survey only weeks later.
The importance of local constituencies
National vote share is only part of the story.
Britain’s first-past-the-post system means that parties need to finish ahead of their opponents in individual constituencies. A party can therefore increase its national vote share substantially without gaining an equivalent number of MPs if its support is concentrated in places where it already performs strongly.
Conversely, relatively small changes in support can produce large numbers of additional seats when a party is close to winning in many constituencies.
This is one reason Reform’s position cannot be understood simply by looking at its national polling percentage.
An electoral map provides another layer of information by showing where that support could translate into parliamentary representation.
But the map also needs to be viewed alongside the margins separating the parties, local candidates, turnout assumptions and the date on which the polling was conducted.
A rapidly changing political landscape
The most striking feature of Britain’s current electoral landscape may therefore be its volatility.
Reform has moved from five Westminster seats in 2024 to a position where multiple models give it a substantially larger parliamentary presence. At the same time, projections for the party have changed dramatically during 2026.
More in Common’s figures tell the story particularly clearly: Reform went from 381 projected seats in January, to 324 in April, 293 in July and 147 in September.
Those numbers are not election results. They are successive modelling exercises based on changing political circumstances.
For voters looking at an electoral map and searching for their own constituency, the most useful question is therefore not simply whether an area is coloured for Reform.
It is how close the projected contest is, which parties are competing for second place, how recent the underlying data are, and whether other models show a similar result.
The latest maps demonstrate that Reform UK is a significant part of Britain’s electoral competition, but they also demonstrate how quickly constituency projections can change.
With national politics continuing to shift, the boundaries between traditional Labour, Conservative and emerging Reform battlegrounds are becoming less predictable. A constituency that appears securely aligned with one party in one model can become competitive in another.
The map, ultimately, is a snapshot of political opinion at a particular moment.
It can reveal where the most closely watched contests may be, but only voters at a future general election will determine which party actually represents those constituencies in Parliament.