Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
The Conservatives have gained a seat from Reform UK in a council by-election in the latest sign of a bounce for Kemi Badenoch‘s party. The Tories took the Cramlington South West ward on Northumberland County Council with 34.2% of the vote, up nine points.
Reform was down 13 points to second place with 26.1% of the vote share. The Liberal Democrats came third with 23%, while the Greens were fourth on 14.3%.
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It comes as the Tory fightback is underway following their 2024 general election defeat.
The research found that 22% of voters backed the Conservatives, up 3% from the previous poll.
Meanwhile, Reform’s lead had narrowed with Nigel Farage‘s party on 25%, down 5% from the week before.
Labour was third on 21%, while Zack Polanski’s Greens were fourth on 13% and the Lib Dems were on 12%.
It comes ahead of next month’s local elections where Reform is expected to make major gains, while Labour is facing a drubbing.
Tories Win Seat from Reform in Council By-Election in Boost for Kemi Badenoch
The Conservative Party has taken a council seat from Reform UK in a closely watched by-election, giving Kemi Badenoch a notable political boost at a time when the Conservatives are seeking to rebuild support and challenge Nigel Farage’s party.
The result is significant because Reform UK has spent much of the recent political period expanding its presence at the expense of the established parties. A Conservative gain directly from Reform provides evidence that the movement of voters between the two parties is not entirely one-way.
For Badenoch, the result comes as the Conservative leader seeks to demonstrate that her party can compete directly with Reform without entering an electoral pact. She has previously rejected calls for the Conservatives and Reform UK to unite, arguing that the Conservative Party should build its own support rather than depend on cooperation with Farage’s organisation.
The wider political context makes the by-election particularly noteworthy. Reform has made substantial gains in recent contests and has increasingly presented itself as a serious challenger to both Labour and the Conservatives. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have been working to recover from their heavy defeat at the 2024 general election and establish a clearer political identity under Badenoch.
The latest result therefore offers the Conservatives an opportunity to argue that Reform’s growth does not necessarily mean the permanent loss of Conservative voters.
Recent polling provides additional context. A YouGov survey conducted on September 20 and 21, 2026, found Reform UK and the Conservatives level on 21 per cent, while Labour stood on 23 per cent. The poll, involving 2,286 voters, represented the first time in 18 months that YouGov had recorded the Conservatives level with Reform.
That polling movement and the council by-election result point to a highly competitive relationship between the Conservatives and Reform. However, a single local election cannot establish a nationwide trend. Local by-elections can be influenced by individual candidates, turnout, local issues and campaigning circumstances.
Nevertheless, the symbolic importance of the result is considerable. Reform UK has frequently presented its electoral progress as evidence that Conservative voters are moving towards Farage’s party. A Conservative victory in a seat previously held by Reform provides the Conservatives with a counter-example.
Badenoch has made clear that she does not intend to treat Reform as a political partner. In previous comments, she rejected the idea of creating what she called a “Reform-Conservative hybrid” and pointed to Conservative success in the Aberdeen South by-election as evidence that her party could win without an arrangement with Farage.
The Conservatives’ strategy is therefore based on rebuilding an independent political coalition. Badenoch has sought to emphasise issues including welfare, defence, energy policy, taxation and economic growth while presenting the Conservatives as a party capable of governing rather than simply protesting against Labour.
Reform’s strategy is different. Farage has focused heavily on immigration, national sovereignty, dissatisfaction with Westminster and criticism of the established political parties. Reform has also attempted to broaden its appeal by campaigning on taxation, public spending and economic policy.
This competition is particularly important because the two parties can draw support from some of the same voters. A voter who is concerned about immigration or taxation, for example, may consider both Reform and the Conservatives while making a decision based on which party they trust to address the issue.
The council by-election therefore offers an example of how that competition can operate at a local level.
For Reform UK, losing a seat to the Conservatives is a setback in an area where the party had previously established representation. However, it does not by itself undermine Reform’s broader electoral expansion. The party has continued to build a local organisation across Britain, and its overall performance must be assessed across multiple contests rather than through a single result.
The Conservatives face a similar situation. Winning the seat provides evidence that the party can compete with Reform, but rebuilding a nationwide electoral coalition will require sustained support across many different constituencies and local authorities.
The political importance of council elections should not be underestimated. Local government gives parties an opportunity to develop candidates, establish community networks and demonstrate how they manage public responsibilities. Councillors can also become more familiar figures within their local areas, potentially creating a stronger foundation for future parliamentary campaigns.
At the same time, local elections have limitations as indicators of national voting behaviour. Turnout is generally lower than at general elections, and voters may use local contests to express dissatisfaction without intending to vote in the same way at a parliamentary election.
The result should therefore be viewed as one piece of evidence within a broader political picture.
For Badenoch, however, the timing is useful. The Conservative Party has been under pressure to demonstrate that it can reverse the electoral decline experienced since the previous general election. The party’s ability to regain a seat from Reform gives its leadership a concrete example to point to when arguing that Conservative support can recover.
The result may also affect the debate over possible defections. Reform has attracted politicians and activists who have become dissatisfied with the Conservative Party, while Conservative leaders have sought to discourage further movement towards Farage.
Badenoch’s previous comments have indicated that she regards a separate Conservative identity as essential. In June, she argued that the Conservatives could build a majority independently and rejected the argument that the party should stand aside in favour of Reform in selected constituencies.
The by-election result fits into that broader argument. Rather than accepting Reform’s expansion as inevitable, Conservatives can point to instances in which voters have chosen their party over Farage’s.
The result also comes at a time when Reform’s national support has faced some fluctuation. The recent YouGov poll placed Reform at 21 per cent, down two points, while the Conservatives rose one point to the same level. Labour remained narrowly ahead on 23 per cent.
Polling should not be confused with election results, and a single survey cannot establish what will happen at a future general election. However, it illustrates the increasingly competitive relationship between the Conservatives and Reform.
Another important factor is the political geography of Reform support. The party has demonstrated an ability to attract voters from different backgrounds and regions, including former Conservative and Labour supporters. This makes it difficult for the established parties to rely entirely on their traditional electoral coalitions.
For the Conservatives, recovering voters from Reform could be essential to any attempt to rebuild parliamentary strength. At the same time, the party must decide how closely it wants to compete with Farage on issues such as immigration and national sovereignty while maintaining its own political identity.
Badenoch has attempted to draw a distinction between the two parties. In her own political statements, she has argued that Reform and the Conservatives have different approaches to economics, government and political responsibility. Her position is that voters should be offered a clear Conservative alternative rather than a combined political vehicle.
The council by-election victory gives that argument additional practical relevance.
For Reform UK, the challenge is to demonstrate that occasional losses do not interrupt its wider expansion. The party has benefited from strong performances in a number of recent contests, including parliamentary by-elections. The House of Commons Library records Reform victories in Runcorn and Helsby in 2025 and Clacton in August 2026, while noting Conservative success in Aberdeen South in June 2026.
Those results demonstrate that the electoral picture remains fluid. Different parties have been capable of winning in different circumstances, and no single contest can fully describe the national balance of support.
The latest council by-election is therefore important less because of the size of the seat itself than because of what it represents in the growing Conservative-Reform contest. It gives Badenoch a tangible example of Conservative recovery and shows that Reform’s gains can be challenged.
For voters, the changing competition means that traditional assumptions about which party dominates particular communities are becoming less reliable. Conservative, Labour and Reform candidates are increasingly competing for support that can move between parties from one election to another.
The outcome also highlights the importance of local campaigning. A party may perform strongly nationally while losing individual contests because of candidate selection, local issues or differences in turnout. Conversely, a strong local campaign can produce a result that differs from broader national patterns.
The Conservative victory should therefore be understood within that context. It provides Badenoch and her party with a positive local result, while Reform remains a significant competitor with a growing electoral organisation.
Ultimately, the significance of the result will depend on what happens in subsequent contests. If the Conservatives continue to regain seats from Reform, it could provide further evidence of a changing relationship between the two parties. If Reform continues to expand elsewhere, the Conservatives will face a continuing challenge to retain voters who have moved away from them.
For now, however, the message from this council by-election is clear: Reform UK’s advance is not uniform, and the Conservatives remain capable of winning back representation from Farage’s party.
For Kemi Badenoch, that provides a useful political moment as she attempts to establish the Conservatives as an independent alternative and rebuild the party’s electoral coalition. For Reform UK, the loss demonstrates that its rapid expansion will face direct competition from a Conservative Party determined to recover its position.
The contest between the two parties is consequently becoming one of the defining features of Britain’s evolving political landscape. The latest result adds another chapter to that competition, with the Conservatives gaining ground in a contest where Reform had previously held the seat.