By-elections are notorious for their unpredictable outcomes. However, all eyes are on Abertridwr as voters prepare to head to the polls on October 23.

Observers across Wales and the UK are keenly watching to gauge the fragility of Labour’s vote in this once stronghold area and what it could imply for the upcoming Senedd election next year and potentially even Keir Starmer‘s future.

This initiative has seen the Welsh Government allocate £55m over the past six years — 0.05% of its £29bn annual budget — primarily to support Ukrainians settling in Wales whilst conflict devastates their homeland.

They maintain it was created to establish Wales as a welcoming destination for those escaping persecution and warfare, with most funding directed towards helping Ukrainian refugees access English tuition, secure employment, and integrate as contributing community members.

 

‘We are being called racists for supporting Reform’

 

Yet the forceful condemnation from both Plaid and Labour has failed to achieve their desired impact on some Abertridwr residents who feel branded as racist for harbouring immigration concerns. They believe it is Labour and Plaid fuelling discord through their attacks on Reform.

One voter, Jackie, declined to provide her surname, claiming she has endured “so much abuse” for supporting Reform.

The Welsh speaker and former Plaid supporter told WalesOnline: “Plaid have really rallied it in the village. We’re seen as Nazis, racists. I think that’s lazy politics. They are causing the division because they are leading with fear.”

She also alleges that her posts about Reform, including messages inquiring if anyone would like Reform placards for their homes, have been removed from local community groups by councillors.

Jackie stated that they focus on Reform’s views about immigration, rather than any of their other policies, “it’s quite a dirty race in that they won’t let Reform voters get off the immigration thing,” she said. However, she expressed concern about the levels of migration into Wales.

“I don’t think it is misleading for Reform to focus on migration, there are hotels in Cardiff that are being used to house asylum seekers. My opinion is that people in the village are not looking further than that, that’s what they see,” she explained.

“At the moment immigration is not a problem here but I think it will become an issue when people start to see them coming into rural, community-based areas. We welcome everybody but people will start to think ‘what about what I need? My house is falling apart’ and then it will start hitting them.”

When questioned about why immigration matters in a Senedd by-election when it is not a devolved issue, Jackie responded: “We’re governed by Westminster on immigration. If they start to say ‘bring us more, bring us more,’ Plaid won’t say no to that will they?”.

 

‘We need change in this country’

 

Robert Morgan, 55, is also concerned about immigration. He said: “We need to have change in this country. We shouldn’t have people coming here illegally. I think Reform are the only party who will do that change. I just feel he [Nigel Farage] will make a big difference to us.”

Robert, who was compelled to stop working several years ago due to poor health and resides with his wife Joanne, 54, said he is worried about the NHS becoming swamped and that working-class people appear to keep getting more impoverished.

Discussing asylum seekers, he said: “They’re not earning anything. We’re paying money for them to go into hotels. That’s not where our taxes should be going.”

Robert, a former Conservative supporter, said he has positioned his Reform flags and posters up high amid fears that they would be removed otherwise. It’s occurred at a nearby pub, his wife Joanne revealed.

Robert added that Plaid campaigners would visit the doors of Labour supporters and have a conversation, but he alleges they avoid any houses with Reform signage, saying, “we feel alienated”.

One person who finds the emphasis on migration and the criticism of Welsh Labour’s Nation of Sanctuary policy troubling is Vira Mandrika, 47.

She is a member of the Ukrainian community in Caerphilly. This week they lodged a formal complaint to the returning officer, contending that Reform’s election material constitutes disinformation.

Vira, who resides in Bedwas with her Welsh partner, arrived in the UK just over a year ago on a Homes for Ukraine visa. Back in Ukraine, Vira held a managerial role in a major firm and since relocating to the UK, she has secured a part-time position as a sales advisor, a job she claims was facilitated by the scheme.

“We as the Ukrainian community want to explain what this scheme actually is and how important it is to be supported. We feel that Reform are misrepresenting the scheme as a problem to Welsh society,” she stated.

 

‘We make no apology for opposing the Nation of Sanctuary plan’

 

“They make it seem like it’s for ‘illegal’ immigrants, but it’s not, most of the money was spent on Ukrainian refugees, who are absolutely legal here.”

She expressed that it is the “general language” used in campaign material which is misleading the public.

A Reform UK leaflet distributed this week states: “Enablers in Plaid Cymru enthusiastically support Labour’s £55m ‘Nation of Sanctuary’ scheme – which gives preferential treatment to asylum seekers, while the number of migrants crossing the Channel has hit 50,000 during Keir Starmer’s term in office.”

In the Senedd, Reform UK MS Laura Anne Jones claimed the policy “simply puts a neon sign above Wales that suggests the rest of the world come here, possibly illegally, use our services, our benefits, our housing, when our NHS is already stretched to the max and we have veterans sleeping on the street”.

Another letter distributed by Reform declares: “Only Reform opposes Labour and Plaid’s £55 million Nation of Sanctuary scheme for asylum seekers.”

A formal complaint regarding this statement has been lodged, claiming it is “false and misleading”.

Vira argued that since over £45 million of this funding was allocated to Ukrainian nationals, they consider the leaflet’s exclusive use of the term “asylum seekers” to be misleading.

Asylum seekers are individuals who have sought protection and are awaiting determination of their refugee status. They cannot work whilst this decision is pending. Should they be granted refugee status, this often provides a route to applying for indefinite leave to remain in the UK.

By contrast, Ukrainians are not asylum seekers and do not hold refugee status. They were granted temporary visas permitting them to reside in the UK by the UK Government following Russia‘s 2022 invasion. They have no route to permanent residency. Ukrainian nationals are simply permitted to live here under the Homes for Ukraine scheme or the Ukraine Family Scheme.

In September it was announced they would be permitted to apply to extend these visas for another two years whilst the conflict with Russia continues.

However, both Conservative and Labour governments in Westminster have stated the visas remain temporary. The complaint, shared with WalesOnline, reads: “The leaflet’s wording distorts public understanding of Welsh Government spending and misleads voters about a policy that has primarily supported Ukrainian war refugees – many of whom now work in Welsh communities, including in the NHS, schools, and care sectors. I believe this constitutes disinformation in campaign material and should be reviewed for potential breaches of electoral law or standards.”

A spokesperson for Reform UK Wales stated that the party offers “no apology for opposing the Nation of Sanctuary plan.” A poll conducted by ITV Wales last month revealed that 49% of people in Wales are against the Nation of Sanctuary, while 34% support it.

Vira expressed her disappointment at seeing the Nation of Sanctuary being used as a political tool by Reform. “The programme gave us the possibility to be integrated into Wales,” she said.

“I think people should understand how difficult it is to move from your home, have to restart your life from zero and learn a new language. It’s important to be supported with English classes, help to find a job so we can contribute to Wales.”

She further added that she is “grateful” for the warm welcome she has received in Wales.

 

‘I don’t know what money is being spent on but it isn’t Caerphilly’

 

Whilst immigration may be dominating campaign literature and sparked the most heated exchange during First Minister’s Questions this week, local concerns are set to play a crucial part in this election. Both Reform and Plaid supporters highlighted how local matters and living costs are shaping their voting intentions.

These community concerns encompass threatened library closures, demands for additional pedestrian crossings, dog waste bins and speed cameras to prevent local streets being treated like a “race track.”

Joanne and Jackie revealed they were attracted to Reform not through its immigration stance, but by the party’s 2024 General Election manifesto commitment to lift the income tax threshold to £20,000. She explained that as her family aren’t high earners, such a policy would deliver a “huge impact”.

Reform UK hasn’t yet confirmed whether its income tax threshold proposal will feature in its Welsh manifesto for next year’s Senedd election and it remains unclear how the party would finance the policy if implemented.

Robert expressed interest in Mr Farage’s proposals to boost efficiency within councils and the NHS. When questioned about his priority if Reform secured victory, he declared: “Caerphilly needs cleaning up. I don’t know what money is being spent on but it isn’t Caerphilly .”

Kenny Matthews, a local resident who has been actively campaigning to save Abertridwr library, will be focusing on local issues rather than immigration when he casts his vote in the upcoming by-election. He expressed his strong opposition to Reform, stating: “I like my Welsh flag. They see Wales as a stepping stone to England, that’s it,”.

He accused Reform of stoking tensions about immigration within the community, saying: “Immigration isn’t a problem here. It’s sad to see because there are some horrible people in the world.”

He also praised the “marvellous” nurses and doctors in the area who weren’t born in the UK, expressing gratitude for their service.

The political landscape in Caerphilly is set to be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Many believe it’s a straight fight between Reform’s Llyr Powell and Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.

If the sentiments expressed on the doorsteps of Abertridwr are anything to go by, it appears to be shaping up as a two-horse race.

A victory for either party would send a clear message to Labour, which has historically held the seat.

The First Minister has suggested that the nation is at a critical juncture. “I genuinely think that people need to decide on which side of this argument they’re on,” she stated.

Eluned Morgan isn’t alone in believing that the debate over immigration and community division has reached a pivotal stage. A recent Senedd committee report on social cohesion in Wales warned that without intervention, tensions could escalate into “widespread civil unrest”.

In response to allegations that its campaign material on the Nation of Sanctuary was misleading, a spokesperson for Reform UK Wales said: “We make no apology for opposing the Nation of Sanctuary plan.

“Polling shows that people in Wales want to see an end to this policy, and we’re the only party in with a chance in Caerphilly that will scrap it. It’s absolutely clear that you want to see this policy scrapped, vote Reform.”

The Small Village Where Reform Is Surging and Labour Faces Annihilation in Its Heartland

For generations, the small Welsh village of Abertridwr was the kind of community where Labour’s political presence seemed almost permanent.

Set in the Caerphilly area of the South Wales valleys, the former mining community had long been associated with Labour’s industrial and working-class tradition. But during the 2025 Senedd by-election campaign, that political landscape changed dramatically.

Reform UK campaign signs appeared across streets where Labour had historically been dominant, while Plaid Cymru also built a strong presence. The contest became an important test of whether Labour’s traditional support in Wales was weakening and whether Reform could turn its growing national support into votes in communities that had rarely been considered natural territory for the party.

The eventual result showed just how much the political landscape had shifted.

Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly Senedd seat with 15,961 votes, while Reform UK finished second with 12,113. Labour, which had historically dominated the constituency, fell to third place with only 3,713 votes.

For Reform, the result did not produce a victory, but its performance demonstrated that the party had become a significant force in an area where it had previously been marginal.

A Former Labour Stronghold

Caerphilly had deep Labour roots.

The constituency’s political history was closely connected with the industrial communities of South Wales, where coal mining, trade unions and working-class organisations played a major role in shaping political identity.

Labour’s relationship with these communities was about more than elections. It was embedded in local history and family traditions.

But political loyalties can change.

By the time of the 2025 by-election, voters were increasingly discussing issues that went beyond the traditional Labour-versus-Conservative divide.

Immigration, the cost of living, public services, taxation, local government and the future of the Welsh economy all featured in conversations with voters.

For Reform, this created an opportunity.

The party’s campaign sought to present itself as an alternative to the established political parties, while its candidate Llŷr Powell emphasised local concerns and argued that residents had not been listened to sufficiently by politicians.

That message found an audience.

Reform’s Rapid Rise

The scale of Reform’s improvement was particularly notable.

In the 2021 Senedd election, Reform had received fewer than 500 votes in the constituency. Ahead of the 2025 by-election, the party was suddenly competing seriously for the seat.

Nigel Farage personally visited the area during the campaign, underlining the importance Reform attached to the contest.

The party also devoted considerable resources to the campaign, hoping to demonstrate that its growing support was not confined to traditional Conservative areas.

Instead, Reform wanted to show that it could appeal directly to working-class voters who had historically supported Labour.

That made Abertridwr particularly significant.

If Reform could build support in a former mining community, it could argue that the political divisions of Britain were becoming less predictable.

Immigration Became a Major Issue

One of the most controversial parts of the campaign involved immigration.

Reform made criticism of immigration policy a central feature of its message, while Labour and Plaid Cymru criticised the party’s approach.

The debate became particularly focused on the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary programme.

Reform argued against the policy, while its opponents said the party was presenting the programme in a misleading way by associating it primarily with asylum seekers.

The distinction mattered because much of the programme’s funding had been directed towards supporting Ukrainian refugees rather than people seeking asylum through the UK’s ordinary asylum system.

A Ukrainian resident involved in the community also criticised Reform’s campaign material, arguing that the programme had helped refugees integrate, learn English and find employment. Reform, meanwhile, defended its opposition to the Welsh Government’s policy.

The dispute illustrated how immigration had become a politically important issue even in communities where immigration itself was not necessarily the most visible local concern.

But Local Problems Were Also Important

Not every voter in Abertridwr was focused on immigration.

Local issues remained central to the campaign.

Residents discussed concerns about public services, transport, roads, council services and the future of local facilities.

The area has experienced many of the challenges associated with communities that have undergone major economic change following the decline of heavy industry.

The legacy of the coal industry remains visible, but the economic structure of the area is very different from that of previous generations.

One local campaigner highlighted concerns about the threatened closure of Abertridwr library.

Other residents discussed traffic, infrastructure and public services.

These issues demonstrated that Reform’s progress could not simply be explained by one question.

Voters were considering a mixture of national and local concerns.

The Collapse of Labour’s Vote

The most striking feature of the final result was not simply Reform’s second-place finish.

It was Labour’s fall to third.

Plaid Cymru won 47.38% of the vote, Reform received about 36%, while Labour received roughly 11%. Turnout was 50.43%.

That represented a dramatic change from the constituency’s traditional political pattern.

The by-election had been triggered by the death of Labour Senedd member Hefin David.

Labour had held the seat for decades and entered the contest expecting to remain a major force.

Instead, voters divided their support between Plaid Cymru and Reform.

The result demonstrated that Labour’s traditional electoral base was no longer automatically translating into votes.

Why Plaid Cymru Benefited

Reform was not the only party gaining from Labour’s decline.

Plaid Cymru ultimately captured the seat.

Its candidate Lindsay Whittle was a long-serving local councillor and former leader of Caerphilly Council, giving the party a candidate with strong local recognition.

Plaid also campaigned against Reform’s immigration messaging and presented itself as a specifically Welsh alternative.

That combination proved effective.

Whittle won by 3,848 votes, with Reform in second place and Labour far behind.

The result therefore cannot be interpreted simply as a Reform surge replacing Labour.

Instead, it showed a more complicated redistribution of political support.

Some Labour voters moved towards Plaid Cymru.

Others moved towards Reform.

And the party that had traditionally dominated the area lost its position at the top.

A Warning Sign for Labour

The Caerphilly result nevertheless represented a significant challenge for Labour.

Reuters described the defeat as a major setback in a traditional Labour stronghold, noting that the party finished third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.

The result raised questions about whether Labour could maintain its historical strength across Wales.

For decades, Labour had been closely associated with Welsh working-class communities.

But the political priorities of voters have changed.

Economic insecurity remains important, but questions surrounding immigration, national identity, public services and trust in government have become increasingly significant.

That creates a more complicated electoral environment.

A party can no longer assume that historical loyalty will automatically survive changes in the political and social landscape.

Reform’s Challenge

For Reform, however, second place also created its own challenge.

A strong by-election performance demonstrates electoral potential, but turning that potential into a sustained political organisation is more difficult.

The party needs local candidates.

It needs activists.

It needs policies addressing local as well as national concerns.

And it must convince voters that its candidates can represent their communities effectively.

The Caerphilly campaign gave Reform evidence that its message could reach voters in a traditional Labour environment.

But the party still had to translate that momentum into broader electoral success.

The Importance of the Working-Class Vote

The story of Abertridwr reflects a much wider transformation in British politics.

Working-class voters have traditionally been strongly associated with Labour.

That relationship has weakened over recent decades.

Political identity is now influenced by a much wider range of factors, including age, education, geography, immigration, national identity and attitudes towards government.

This does not mean that working-class voters have abandoned Labour altogether.

Nor does it mean that Reform automatically represents the new political identity of former Labour communities.

The Caerphilly result demonstrates something more specific: voters in a historically Labour constituency were prepared to support alternative parties in substantial numbers.

That alone changes the political calculation.

The Village as a Symbol

Abertridwr is a relatively small community, but its political significance became much larger during the campaign.

The image of Reform signs appearing outside homes in a former mining village became symbolic of Britain’s changing political landscape.

For Labour supporters, it represented a worrying erosion of traditional loyalty.

For Reform supporters, it represented evidence that the party could reach beyond its existing base.

For Plaid Cymru, it demonstrated that the party could challenge Labour while also resisting Reform.

The reality was therefore more complex than a simple two-party battle.

Three parties were competing for voters who had once been much more predictable.

What the Result Revealed

The final numbers provided a clear picture.

Plaid Cymru: 15,961 votes.

Reform UK: 12,113.

Labour: 3,713.

Conservative: 690.

Green Party: 516.

Liberal Democrats: 497.

Other candidates received smaller totals.

The figures showed both Reform’s advance and Labour’s decline.

But they also showed that political change does not necessarily benefit one challenger alone.

Plaid Cymru ultimately took the seat.

Reform demonstrated substantial support.

Labour suffered a major reduction in its vote.

That combination made Caerphilly one of the most closely watched political contests in Wales.

Looking Beyond One By-Election

The significance of Abertridwr and Caerphilly extends beyond the individual contest because Wales was approaching the full Senedd election scheduled for May 2026.

The by-election offered an early indication of how voters might behave in a changing political environment.

It also showed that national political issues could become intertwined with local concerns.

For Labour, the challenge was reconnecting with communities that had historically provided much of its support.

For Reform, the challenge was proving that its new support represented a durable political coalition rather than a temporary protest.

For Plaid Cymru, the challenge was maintaining the support that had allowed it to defeat both parties.

The 2025 contest therefore created three different political questions.

Could Labour rebuild?

Could Reform expand?

Could Plaid Cymru consolidate its gains?

A Changing Political Map

The most important lesson from the small streets of Abertridwr was perhaps that political geography is becoming less predictable.

A community can retain its industrial heritage while changing its political preferences.

A lifelong Labour voter can consider another party.

A former Conservative voter can move to Reform.

A nationalist party can win a seat previously dominated by Labour.

And local issues can compete with national questions for voters’ attention.

None of these changes happens overnight.

They develop through elections, campaigns and changing public attitudes.

But the Caerphilly by-election showed that the old assumptions about Welsh politics could no longer be taken for granted.

Reform did not win the seat.

Plaid Cymru did.

But Reform’s second-place finish, with more than 12,000 votes, was enough to establish the party as a significant competitor in an area where it had previously been a minor presence.

For Labour, the result was a reminder that historic strength is not permanent.

For Reform, it was evidence of substantial support but also a reminder that strong campaigning does not guarantee victory.

And for Welsh politics as a whole, Abertridwr became a striking example of how quickly political loyalties can change.

The village may be small.

Its streets may look much as they have for generations.

But its voting patterns revealed a political landscape that is very different from the one many observers had once expected.

That is why Abertridwr attracted so much attention.

The story was not simply about Reform.

It was about the changing relationship between voters and the parties that once believed they could rely on them.

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