Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could emerge as the largest in the Senedd (Image: Anadolu via Getty)
We are still a fortnight away from the May 7 elections, but this contest has already shaken the nation. The depth of discontent with Labour is laid bare in polling that shows the party facing an electoral cataclysm of historic proportions.
Sir Keir Starmer led Labour to a landslide in 2024, but it is now on the verge of losing seats across the nation to nationalists, eco-socialists and populists. The latest YouGov poll to emerge from Wales – the supposed Labour heartland whose MPs included Keir Hardie, Aneurin Bevan, Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock – is staggering. Labour has been the biggest party at every general election for more than a century, but now it is in third place.
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Pro-independence Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are tied on 29%, with Labour languishing on 13% – just three points ahead of the Greens.
Even if Labour can perform a massive “get out the vote” operation and perform better on polling day, activists will not forget this poll in a hurry. It reflects the disillusionment, not to mention downright anger, with the party in seats where the votes were once weighed.
Plaid has spent years presenting itself as a Left-of-centre alternative to Labour. It has broadened its appeal beyond voters for whom independence and the Welsh language are the top issues. Meanwhile, Reform has flourished in a nation which shocked the political establishment in 2016 by backing Brexit. Voters in former industrial heartlands who voted to Leave but still hesitated to vote Tory have embraced Nigel Farage’s party.
There will be anxiety in Plaid circles as polling day races near. Has the party peaked too early? Projections suggest Reform could have 37 of the 96 seats in the Senedd in Cardiff Bay – one more than Plaid. Such a result would give Reform activists in every part of the UK an adrenaline boost and encourage them to believe that Mr Farage could be prime minister in 2029.
Rhun ap Iorweth could be Plaid Cymru’s first First Minister (Image: Getty)
Labour is on course to have just 12 members of the Senedd but the longest faces of all may be in the Conservative group. Just 8% of those polled intended to vote for the party, which means it could have just three members. This would be a disaster for the Tories, which finished second in the 2021 election.
The tough message for both Sir Keir and Kemi Badenoch is that voters are fed up with the parties which have dominated politics for decade. Nothing can be taken for granted – even the long-term existence of the United Kingdom is up for debate.
Even in London, that supposed bastion of Labour support, Greens and Reform are on track to make major gains. Labour is expected to get the highest vote share (26%) but this is a fall of 16 points since the 2022 election. Labour apparatchiks at their next Islington dinner party will hope the capital does not go the way of Wales.
The Jaw-Dropping Poll That Shows Nigel Farage Could Score an Unlikely Triumph
Nigel Farage’s political fortunes have been under intense scrutiny as Reform UK faces a changing polling landscape. After months in which the party appeared to be losing some of the momentum it enjoyed during the previous year, a series of new surveys has highlighted another possibility: Reform could still perform strongly in a future general election if its support is converted efficiently into parliamentary seats.
The latest polling does not establish that Reform UK will win a general election, and it does not provide a basis for predicting an eventual result. What it does show is how different voting intentions and constituency-level projections can produce very different pictures of Britain’s political landscape.
One recent YouGov poll for The Times put Reform UK on 21%, level with the Conservatives and behind Labour on 23%. Reform had fallen two points in that survey, while the Conservatives gained one point. The poll was conducted among 2,286 voters on September 20 and 21, 2026.
At first sight, those numbers appear less dramatic for Farage than some of the polls seen during Reform’s strongest period. Yet the wider story is more complicated.
A party that remains electorally significant
Reform’s support has declined from the unusually high levels recorded during parts of 2025 and early 2026.
Ipsos reported in August that Labour had moved ahead of Reform, with Labour on 28% and Reform on 25%. Ipsos described the development as a “speed bump” for Reform after a period in which the party had established itself as a major challenger to Labour.
Sky News election analyst Professor Rob Ford subsequently noted that Reform’s average polling share across nine pollsters had fallen substantially from the previous year. He also reported that the party had moved from polling in the low thirties in August 2025 to the mid-twenties at best a year later.
But falling from an exceptionally strong position does not mean that Reform has disappeared from the electoral contest.
The latest YouGov figures still place Reform among Britain’s three largest parties, with only a two-point gap separating it from Labour. The Conservatives are level with Farage’s party in that particular poll, while the Greens have reached 14%.
That makes the current political landscape considerably more competitive than a simple Labour-versus-Reform narrative would suggest.
Why polls and seats can tell different stories
The most important factor when examining Farage’s prospects is Britain’s electoral system.
The United Kingdom uses first-past-the-post elections for Westminster. A party’s national vote share therefore does not translate directly into its number of MPs.
A party can finish second in dozens of constituencies, accumulate millions of votes and still win relatively few seats. Conversely, if its support is concentrated efficiently across constituencies, a party can win a substantial number of MPs without securing an equivalent percentage of the national vote.
That is why MRP studies have attracted so much attention during Reform’s rise.
Multilevel regression and post-stratification models attempt to estimate constituency-level voting patterns rather than simply asking which party respondents intend to support nationally.
One recent example illustrates the scale of the difference.
Research reported by The Times in September found that Reform’s projected parliamentary representation could be significantly affected by whether Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain contested constituencies across the country. The research suggested Reform’s projected number of MPs could fall from 108 to 59 in a scenario where Restore stood candidates widely.
The figures demonstrate how sensitive seat projections can be to competition between parties with overlapping electorates.
They also show why a national poll should not be interpreted as a direct prediction of the number of MPs any party would eventually win.
The Restore Britain factor
Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain has introduced another variable into the political contest on the right.
Lowe previously served as a Reform MP before his departure from the party and subsequently launched Restore Britain. The existence of two parties competing for some of the same voters could influence constituency outcomes even if Restore itself wins relatively few seats.
The September research cited by The Times suggested that Reform’s projected parliamentary representation could be substantially reduced if Restore contested every constituency. Labour was identified as the principal potential beneficiary in that scenario.
For Farage, this creates an unusual electoral problem.
The question is not simply whether Reform can increase its own vote share. It is also whether other parties competing for similar voters can prevent Reform from converting that support into constituency victories.
This is one reason why headline national polling figures need to be treated cautiously.
The Conservatives are also recovering
Another important feature of the latest polling is the movement of Conservative support.
The September YouGov survey showed the Conservatives reaching 21%, level with Reform for the first time in 18 months. The Times described the result as a boost for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch ahead of the party’s conference.
That development matters because Reform’s growth has partly depended on attracting voters who previously supported the Conservatives.
If some of those voters return to the Conservatives, Reform’s national share could decline even if the overall electorate’s concerns about immigration, taxation or public services remain unchanged.
The September polling also showed the Greens rising to 14%, while the Liberal Democrats stood at 12% and Restore Britain at 4%.
The result is a fragmented electoral environment in which several parties are competing for significant blocs of voters.
Farage’s personal position
The fortunes of Reform are closely linked to Farage himself.
He remains one of the most recognisable figures in British politics and has led the party through its transformation from a relatively small political organisation into a significant national electoral force.
But polling also indicates challenges surrounding his personal image.
Sky News reported in September that Farage’s personal approval ratings had fallen while Reform remained near the top of national polling. Professor Rob Ford argued that the decline in Reform’s support had raised questions about whether Farage remained as significant an electoral asset for the party as he had previously been.
That analysis highlights an important distinction.
A leader can have high name recognition without enjoying uniformly positive public approval. Farage’s visibility can help Reform dominate political debate, but it can also generate strong opposition among voters who disagree with his policies.
The latest polling therefore provides evidence of both continued political relevance and significant limitations.
Immigration remains central to Reform’s identity
One of Reform’s defining political issues remains immigration.
Farage has consistently argued for substantially tighter controls on illegal migration, tougher enforcement and large-scale removals. The party has also proposed changes to asylum policy and Britain’s relationship with European human-rights institutions.
These policies have helped differentiate Reform from the established parties.
At the same time, immigration is only one part of the party’s broader platform. Reform also campaigns on taxation, public spending, energy, regulation, national sovereignty and the size of government.
Its challenge is therefore to maintain support among voters with different priorities rather than relying on a single issue.
Why an “unlikely triumph” remains possible in a narrow sense
The phrase “unlikely triumph” needs careful interpretation.
Current polling does not show an established Reform victory. Indeed, the latest YouGov survey has Labour ahead and the Conservatives level with Reform.
Nor does Ipsos currently show Reform leading Labour. Its August survey placed Labour three points ahead.
However, the possibility of a significant Reform parliamentary presence remains evident in constituency modelling.
Earlier MRP research has demonstrated that relatively modest changes in national support can produce dramatic changes in projected seat totals. The September Restore Britain analysis provides another example of how constituency competition can reshape those projections.
The implication is not that a particular outcome is inevitable. Rather, it is that national polling percentages alone cannot capture the full electoral picture.
A highly competitive political landscape
Britain’s current political environment is unusually fragmented.
Labour has lost the polling advantage it enjoyed immediately after the 2024 general election.
Reform has fallen from the exceptionally high levels recorded during its strongest period but remains a major party in national surveys.
The Conservatives have recently recovered enough support to draw level with Reform in at least one significant poll.
The Greens are also gaining ground, while Restore Britain has introduced another potential source of competition.
The September YouGov figures provide a useful snapshot of that fragmentation: Labour 23%, Reform 21%, Conservatives 21%, Greens 14%, Liberal Democrats 12% and Restore Britain 4%.
These numbers should not be treated as a forecast of a future election result. They are measurements of voting intention at a particular moment.
What the polling really tells us
The most striking aspect of the current data is not that they prove Farage is about to achieve an electoral triumph.
They do not.
Instead, they show that Reform remains sufficiently competitive that relatively small changes in voter behaviour could have significant consequences in individual constituencies.
The party’s future parliamentary representation would depend on the geographical distribution of its support, the strength of competing parties, candidate selection, local campaigns, turnout and the eventual national vote.
The Restore Britain factor makes the calculation even more complicated, because competition from another party appealing to some of the same voters could alter constituency results considerably.
For Farage, therefore, the latest polling represents a political landscape that remains open rather than settled.
Reform has lost some of the momentum visible a year ago, and recent polls show Labour and the Conservatives capable of competing strongly. But Reform remains one of the country’s leading parties in voting-intention surveys.
The central lesson is that Britain’s next electoral contest cannot be understood through one national percentage alone. The interaction between national support, constituency geography and competition between parties will ultimately determine how votes translate into parliamentary representation.
That is why the latest polling can generate headlines about an “unlikely triumph” without actually establishing that such a result will happen. It demonstrates continued potential for Reform, while the same data also reveal substantial obstacles that Farage and his party would need to overcome.