
This is probably as good as it gets for Andy Burnham.
The PM-in-waiting is currently basking in the glory of near-universal acclaim from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP).
An astonishing 322 Labour MPs – 80% of the total – gave their public support to Burnham to be the party’s new leader on the opening day of nominations.
More of them will do so when the PLP office re-opens on Monday morning.
It means that, barring a meteor strike precipitating the end of civilisation in the next week-and-a-half, the former mayor of Greater Manchester will become Labour leader at the third time of asking on July 17.
Three days later, he will take over from Keir Starmer as prime minister, thereby realising an ambition he has worked towards his entire adult life.
After losing out to Ed Miliband in 2010 and Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, Burnham will finally become Labour leader and, with it, be handed the keys to 10 Downing Street.
He will have every right to feel pride and satisfaction at becoming only the eighth leader of his party to assume the highest office in the land.
But it will all be downhill from there.
Here, HuffPost UK looks at the biggest problems facing the Makerfield MP as he prepares to take on the biggest challenge of his life.
1) Holding The PLP Together
A quick glance at the list of MPs who have so far nominated Burnham to be Labour leader shows the biggest problem he faces, namely keeping them all happy – something Starmer spectacularly failed to do.
Arch-Blairites like Pat McFadden and Wes Streeting joined left-wingers such as Ian Lavery and Clive Lewis in giving Burnham their backing.
At the moment, they are all united in the acceptance that Burnham gives them the best chance of being returned to power at the next general election. But something, clearly, will have to give.
The incoming leader set out his strategy for keeping his MPs sweet in an email to them on Wednesday in which he said he was committed to “changing culture through valuing and respecting every member of the PLP”.
MPs will be encouraged to raise problems and contribute policy ideas, something which was not encouraged under Starmer.
“I want to create a different culture where MPs are happy and fulfilled doing their jobs, where everyone has a part to play, and where opinions and approaches are respected, even where there’s difference,” Burnham said.
That all sounds lovely in principle. The challenge for the new prime minister will be in ensuring that his warm words are matched by reality when the going inevitably gets tough.
2) What To Do On Immigration
Helpfully, an early test of the new approach has already arrived in the form of a letter signed by more than 80 Labour MPs urging Burnham to water down home secretary Shabana Mahmood’s tough new immigration reforms.
The Immigration and Asylum Bill will, among other things, make it much harder for those fleeing to the UK to be granted indefinite leave to remain.
The MPs say in the letter: “Targeting a group of migrants that followed the rules, and applying this retrospectively, does not pass the fairness test for a compassionate but firm system.”
Other Labour MPs, however, fully support Mahmood’s reforms, arguing that being tough on immigration is essential if the party is to see off the threat from Reform UK.
Burnham himself has signalled a tougher approach by saying last month that he wanted to see “greater use” of detention centres for those whose asylum claims are rejected.
The Commons will vote on the immigration bill on Monday. As yet, it is unclear whether Burnham will show up and, if he does, how he will vote.
What he does will say a lot about how he plans to do the job.
3) Making Welfare Work
The seeds of Keir Starmer’s downfall were sown a year ago, when a backbench rebellion forced the government to abandon its plans to cut £5 billion from the benefits bill.
McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, has wisely opted not to re-litigate that particular battle, focusing instead on attempts to reduce the record number of young people classed as NEETS (not in education, employment or training).
Burnham is also signed up to this approach, arguing that greater employment support and “in-work” help for those with mental ill health can bring about a “fair and lasting” reduction to the overall welfare bill without the need for “crude cuts”.
How successful his government is in getting significant numbers of people off benefits and into work, something which has eluded both Labour and Tory administrations in the past, will go a long way to determining his longevity in No.10.
4) Filling The Defence Black Hole
Bringing down the £333 billion welfare bill could be one way of filling the defence spending black hole Burnham has been left by Starmer.
The outgoing PM finally unveiled his long-delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP) last week, hailing the extra £15bn that will be spent on Britain’s armed forces over the next four years.
However, that is predicated on £4.7bn of savings being found in the next Budget – something which will be the responsibility of Burnham’s pick to be Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Which brings us to…
5) How Do You Solve A Problem Like Ed Miliband?
The current energy secretary – a key ally of Burnham – remains the favourite to move into 11 Downing Street when the new PM announces his first cabinet.
It would be seen as a reward for someone who did more than most to get Burnham to this point.
Miliband was one of the cabinet ministers who told Starmer to his face that he needed to go after Labour’s humbling in the May 7 elections, and has worked closely with Burnham’s team on his preparations for power.
Making him chancellor would not be a risk-free choice, however.
A significant number of Labour MPs are vehemently opposed to the appointment, as are the leaders of the powerful Unite and GMB unions, who believe his opposition to fresh drilling in the North Sea will cost their members their jobs.
Failing to promote Miliband would, however, be seen as a huge snub to such a strong supporter.
6) Dealing With The Donald
Starmer’s biggest – and what some would say only – success as prime minister was his performance on the global stage.
He won plaudits for his staunch support for Ukraine and for keeping the UK out of America and Israel’s war with Iran.
That did, however, seal the complete deterioration of his relationship with Donald Trump, something which he had initially managed to cultivate to surprisingly good effect.
We know that Burnham wants to focus more on the domestic scene, leaving the international stage to his foreign secretary, who may or may not be David Miliband.
But like it or not, he will have to deal with the US president. We know precisely nothing on how he plans to approach it.
As we have seen on numerous occasions in the last two years, the man in the Oval Office has a habit of ruining the best laid plans of any prime minister.
