New Ipsos polling paints a pretty picture for the Labour Party, which has its biggest majority since the election, up five points from last month to 32 per cent.
Robert Jenrick Reacts on GB News as Shock Poll Sees Reform UK Slip to Third
Reform UK has suffered a setback in the latest opinion polling, with the party falling behind the Conservatives and Labour in a survey that has reignited debate about the direction of British politics. The figures have attracted attention across Westminster, with Robert Jenrick responding on GB News as questions grow over whether Nigel Farage’s party can maintain the momentum it built during its earlier rise in the polls.
The latest developments come at a sensitive time for Reform UK, which has sought to present itself as the main alternative to the established political parties. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are attempting to rebuild support under Kemi Badenoch, while Labour is benefiting from an improvement in its standing in several recent surveys.
Although a single poll cannot determine the outcome of the next general election, the changing figures highlight the uncertainty facing all three parties.
Robert Jenrick Responds to the Polling Picture
Robert Jenrick, Reform UK’s Treasury spokesman, has continued to argue that his party remains a serious challenger to the political establishment. Speaking on GB News, he addressed the suggestion that Reform’s fall in the polls could signal a wider change in the political landscape.
The distinction between one poll and the broader picture is important. Polling organisations use different methods, survey different samples and sometimes produce substantially different results. A party can fall into third place in one survey while remaining second in another.
Jenrick’s response reflects a wider argument within Reform: the party believes its appeal extends beyond a temporary protest vote and that its message on taxation, immigration, public spending and government accountability can continue attracting voters.
However, the latest figures create a challenge for the party’s leadership. If Reform wants to convince voters that it is ready to govern, it must demonstrate that its support can withstand scrutiny, political competition and changing public priorities.
The party will also need to explain how its proposals would work in practice, particularly where promises of lower taxes and reduced public spending intersect with demands for better public services.
What the Latest Polls Actually Show
An Ipsos survey conducted between 15 and 22 October 2026 placed Labour on 32 per cent, up five points from September. The Conservatives stood at 24 per cent, an increase of three points, while Reform UK fell three points to 20 per cent.
The result placed Reform behind both Labour and the Conservatives in that particular survey. Ipsos described Labour’s position as its largest lead since June 2025 and the first time in that period that the Conservatives had finished ahead of Reform in its polling. <Cite refs={[“turn729798search0″,”turn729798search1”]}/>
Other polling has also indicated that Reform’s support has softened. Find Out Now’s survey of 2,381 adults in Great Britain, conducted on 21 and 22 October, placed Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 21 per cent and Reform on 20 per cent.
However, the picture is not uniform. An Opinium poll for The Observer, conducted in October, placed Labour on 30 per cent, Reform on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent. That survey still had Reform ahead of the Conservatives. <Cite refs={[“turn729798search1”]}/>
These differences demonstrate why polling headlines should be treated carefully. Reform’s position has weakened in some recent measurements, but the evidence does not show that the party has permanently lost second place across all surveys.
Kemi Badenoch Attempts to Rebuild Conservative Support
The Conservatives’ improved position represents an important development in the competition on the right of British politics.
Under Kemi Badenoch, the party has sought to distinguish itself from Reform by emphasising its own approach to taxation, economic policy and public administration. A YouGov poll for The Times, conducted on 11 and 12 October, placed the Conservatives on 23 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent and Labour on 24 per cent.
The survey followed the Conservative Party conference, where Badenoch announced proposals including changes to inheritance tax and childcare policy. YouGov’s figures suggested that the Conservatives had received a boost, although the reported changes were within the margin of error. <Cite refs={[“turn729798search2″,”turn729798news8”]}/>
For the Conservatives, the task is to persuade voters who have moved towards Reform that the party can offer a credible alternative. This requires more than criticising the government or highlighting disagreements with Farage. Badenoch must show how her policies would affect public services, household finances, businesses and the national economy.
Reform’s declining figures in some surveys may give the Conservatives an opening, but converting that opportunity into sustained support is a separate challenge.
Labour Benefits From a Changing Political Landscape
Labour has also gained ground in recent polling, giving Prime Minister Andy Burnham a more favourable position ahead of the government’s forthcoming Budget.
The Ipsos result placed Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives and 12 points ahead of Reform. Its rise suggests that some voters who had previously considered other parties may now be more willing to support Labour, although polling figures alone cannot establish the reasons behind individual decisions.
The government’s economic choices will be crucial. Voters are concerned about living costs, public services, taxation and the wider state of the economy. The Budget will provide an opportunity for ministers to explain their priorities, but it will also expose them to criticism if measures are perceived to place additional pressure on households or businesses.
Labour’s improvement should therefore not be interpreted as proof that public dissatisfaction has disappeared. A party can lead in voting-intention surveys while still facing significant concerns about its performance.
For Reform and the Conservatives, the challenge is to show that they can address those concerns with policies that are both convincing and financially credible.
Reform’s Economic Message Faces Greater Scrutiny
Reform UK has built much of its appeal around promises to change the way Britain is governed. Its proposals have included reducing taxation, cutting public expenditure and changing the country’s approach to immigration.
The party has also promoted plans for substantial spending reductions. In recent announcements, Reform outlined proposals for annual cuts that would rise over several years, alongside tax reductions and deregulation. The government and political opponents have questioned the feasibility and consequences of such plans. <Cite refs={[“turn729798news9”]}/>
The central question is how the party would implement these commitments without undermining essential services or creating unexpected financial pressures.
Reducing public expenditure can involve difficult choices. Ministers and opposition parties must explain which programmes would be affected, how savings would be calculated and whether the proposed reductions could be achieved within the stated timescale.
Tax cuts also involve trade-offs. Their effects depend on which taxes are reduced, who benefits, how businesses and households respond, and whether the resulting economic activity generates additional revenue.
As Reform seeks to establish itself as a potential governing party, voters may increasingly expect detailed explanations rather than broad promises. Jenrick’s role in economic policy places him at the centre of that debate.
Is Reform Losing Its Momentum?
The latest surveys raise questions about whether Reform can maintain the level of support it enjoyed earlier in the year. However, it would be premature to conclude that the party’s political advance has ended.
Polling movements can reflect several factors, including media coverage, party conferences, leadership performances, policy announcements and changes in public attention. Different pollsters may also record different results because of their methodology and the composition of their samples.
The movement between Reform and the Conservatives is particularly significant. If some voters who previously supported Reform are reconsidering the Conservatives, Badenoch may be able to rebuild support on the right. Yet the reverse movement remains possible, especially if Reform succeeds in presenting itself as the more distinctive alternative.
Labour’s position will also depend on how its policies are received. A Budget that reassures voters about the economy could help the government, while unpopular decisions could change the political conversation again.
No single survey can establish which party will ultimately benefit from these developments.
The Battle for Britain’s Political Future Continues
Robert Jenrick’s appearance on GB News comes as Reform UK faces renewed questions about its polling position and its ability to turn political attention into lasting electoral support.
The latest Ipsos figures place Reform in third behind Labour and the Conservatives, while other surveys show a more competitive picture. The Conservatives have recorded improvements in some polls, and Labour has strengthened its position in others.
For Jenrick and the wider Reform leadership, the immediate challenge is to demonstrate that the party can maintain public confidence while setting out a credible economic programme. Farage’s party will need to explain how its tax and spending proposals would work, how its immigration policies would be implemented and what its plans would mean for public services.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, must prove that their recovery can continue beyond the immediate effects of a party conference. Labour must show that improved polling support reflects confidence in its performance rather than a temporary shift in political attention.
The next Budget and the parties’ responses to it could influence the debate significantly. Until more polling data becomes available, the safest conclusion is that Britain’s political landscape remains unsettled.
Reform UK has lost ground in several recent surveys, but it remains a substantial force in the polls. Whether that decline continues, reverses or stabilises will depend on future political events, the parties’ policy choices and the issues voters consider most important.