Reform UK are about to exert massive pressure on Keir Starmer’s Labour
Reform UK is preparing to put renewed pressure on Labour as the party seeks to turn its rapid rise in British politics into a sustained challenge to the governing party.
The political circumstances have changed dramatically since Keir Starmer led Labour into government in 2024. Starmer resigned as prime minister in June 2026 after months of political pressure, and Andy Burnham subsequently became Labour leader and prime minister.
Yet the political problem that confronted Starmer has not disappeared.
Reform UK remains a major force in the electoral landscape, led by Nigel Farage, and its ability to attract voters who previously supported Labour, the Conservatives or smaller parties continues to shape the calculations of Westminster politicians.
The question now is whether Reform can convert that pressure into a sustained challenge to Burnham’s Labour government.
Reform’s rise changed the political landscape
Reform’s expansion became particularly visible during the 2026 local elections.
Before the elections, opinion polls suggested that Reform could make substantial gains at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. Reuters reported at the time that the elections represented an important test of Britain’s traditional two-party system, with Reform expected to expand its local-government presence.
The eventual results were significant.
Labour lost more than 1,400 English council seats, according to the Guardian’s analysis of the results. Reform was among the parties that gained substantially as voters moved away from the traditional parties.
For Farage, the results provided evidence that Reform could operate beyond Westminster protest politics.
The party now has elected representatives and control of councils in parts of England, giving it an opportunity to demonstrate how its policies work in practice.
That also creates a new challenge.
It is one thing to campaign against Labour.
It is another to run councils, balance budgets and make decisions about public services.
Labour’s new leader faces a different Reform
Andy Burnham entered Downing Street at a moment when Reform was already an established political competitor.
That differs from the situation Starmer faced immediately after the 2024 general election.
Reform’s organisation is larger, its local-government presence is greater and its leader remains one of the most recognisable figures in British politics.
At the same time, Reform has experienced difficulties of its own.
ITV News reported in September that the party had lost its polling lead after a difficult summer, while also facing scrutiny over political donations and competition from Restore Britain.
This means Labour is not facing an unstoppable political force.
Instead, the two parties are competing in an increasingly fragmented electoral environment.
Polling shows a close three-way contest
Recent polling illustrates just how competitive the landscape has become.
A YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 put Labour on 23 per cent, with Reform UK and the Conservatives both on 21 per cent. It was the first time in 18 months that Reform and the Conservatives had been level in YouGov’s polling.
Ipsos polling conducted between September 10 and 15 produced a slightly different picture.
Labour was on 27 per cent, Reform on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent. Ipsos also found that seven in ten respondents were dissatisfied with how the government was running the country.
These numbers are measurements of voting intention at particular moments, not predictions of the next general-election result.
Nevertheless, they show why Reform remains a serious political consideration for Labour.
A party does not need to lead every poll to exert pressure on its opponents.
It can influence the issues they discuss, the voters they target and the policies they prioritise.
Immigration remains a central battleground
One of Reform’s strongest sources of political pressure comes from immigration.
Farage has consistently argued that Britain should reduce migration and introduce tighter controls over who can enter and remain in the country.
That puts Reform directly against Labour on one of the most politically sensitive issues facing successive governments.
For Labour, the challenge is complicated.
The government needs to address concerns about immigration among voters while also managing the economic consequences of changes to migration policy.
Businesses in several sectors rely on overseas workers, while public services can also depend on international recruitment.
Reform argues that Britain should reduce its reliance on migration and give greater priority to domestic workers.
Labour has instead sought to combine immigration controls with measures intended to increase domestic skills and employment.
The disagreement therefore extends beyond numbers.
It concerns the broader question of what Britain’s economy should look like and how quickly it can reduce dependence on overseas labour.
Reform is also targeting Labour on the economy
Economic policy is another major area of competition.
Reform has promised substantial reductions in government spending and has argued that tax cuts can stimulate economic activity.
In September, Farage asked for 100 days to begin what he called fixing “Broken Britain”, attacking the new Labour government and arguing that its early policies had failed to deliver meaningful change.
That is Reform’s political argument.
The government’s response is likely to focus on fiscal constraints, public-service pressures and the need to maintain economic stability.
This creates a familiar problem for opposition parties.
Voters may support lower taxes and reduced government spending in principle, but governments must also explain how services such as the NHS, social care, education and policing would be financed.
Reform therefore faces the same scrutiny that applies to every party seeking government.
The tactical-voting problem
One of the most interesting developments in September has been evidence that voters may not simply vote for their first-choice party when Reform is competitive in a constituency.
YouGov’s latest tactical-voting research found that in a hypothetical Labour-versus-Reform constituency contest, Labour led Reform by 41 per cent to 26 per cent.
The pollster also found that Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green voters were sometimes willing to vote tactically to prevent Reform from winning.
That could become an important factor in any future general election.
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system means that national vote share does not automatically translate into parliamentary seats.
A party can receive millions of votes but win fewer seats if its support is distributed inefficiently across constituencies.
Conversely, concentrated support can produce more MPs.
For Reform, building a geographically broad base is therefore essential.
Labour cannot ignore Reform
Even when Reform’s national polling position weakens, the party can still influence Labour’s strategy.
Labour politicians have to consider whether voters who previously supported the party could move to Reform.
They also have to consider whether Conservative voters might switch to Reform instead, potentially changing the political balance in constituencies where Labour is competing with both parties.
This creates a complicated three-way contest.
Labour cannot simply campaign against Reform.
It must also defend itself against the Conservatives and, in some parts of Britain, the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
That fragmentation is one of the most important changes in British politics since the 2024 general election.
Farage still has work to do
For all the attention surrounding Reform, Farage’s party has its own vulnerabilities.
ITV News reported that Reform had suffered a difficult summer, including a decline in polling support and controversy surrounding party donations and political finances.
The September YouGov figures also showed Reform tied with the Conservatives rather than clearly ahead of them.
That matters because Reform’s original strategy relied heavily on attracting former Conservative voters.
If some of those voters return to the Conservatives, Reform could face a more complicated electoral battle.
At the same time, Reform’s challenge to Labour is not confined to former Conservatives.
The party has also sought to attract working-class voters in areas that have historically supported Labour.
That is potentially more significant for Labour because it threatens the party’s traditional electoral coalition.
The pressure may be about issues as much as seats
Perhaps the most important effect of Reform’s rise is not simply how many MPs the party might eventually win.
It is the influence Reform has over the political agenda.
Immigration, welfare reform, taxation, government spending, energy policy and national sovereignty have all become increasingly prominent political issues.
Labour must respond to those debates even when Reform is not the largest party in a particular constituency.
That is how a relatively new political force can exert pressure on a government.
It changes the choices facing the governing party.
A new phase of the Labour-Reform contest
The political contest between Labour and Reform is now entering a different phase.
Under Starmer, Labour faced Reform during its rapid initial expansion.
Under Burnham, the government faces a Reform organisation that has already demonstrated an ability to win local elections and establish itself across parts of England.
At the same time, Reform is no longer operating in the same political environment as it was a year ago.
The Conservatives have recovered some support in recent polling, Restore Britain has emerged as another competitor on the right, and Reform has faced questions over donations and party management.
That makes the next stage unpredictable.
What is clear is that Labour can no longer treat Reform as a temporary protest movement.
The party has become part of the central competition for voters across Britain.
For Labour, the challenge is to demonstrate that its government can improve living standards, public services and economic performance while responding to concerns about immigration and national identity.
For Reform, the challenge is to demonstrate that it can turn opposition to the established parties into a credible governing programme.
The political pressure is therefore likely to continue.
But whether that pressure ultimately translates into more Reform votes, more Conservative recovery or greater support for Labour will depend on how voters respond to the policies and performance of all three parties as the next election approaches.
