Nigel Farage, pictured here launching Reform’s 2026 local election campaign, will be pleased at the (Image: Getty)

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has triumphed in another pair of council by-elections, as Labour crashed to a devastating defeat by the Greens. The insurgent party stormed to victory in the Tottingham ward on Bury Council, coming from nothing to win 39.5% of the vote and wrest the seat from the Conservatives, whose vote share slumped by 19.1%.

And to prove it is not just winning votes from the Tories, Reform also gained the Wigmore ward in Luton from the Liberal Democrats with 32.9% of the vote. The Lib Dems’ 30.4% was a 24.2% drop from the last time an election was contested in the seat. The Greens, meanwhile, gave Labour a bloody nose by winning Rossendale’s Hareholme and Waterfoot ward, with Reform knocking Sir Keir Starmer’s party into third.

Labour’s vote share collapsed by 27.9%, while the Tories lost 17.6%.

It means that in the 228 council by-elections fought since May 2025, Reform has won 80, with the Lib Dems taking 64 and Labour just 17.

It indicates that Reform is on course to spark a political earthquake at the May local elections, in which a polling expert predicts it could win a staggering 2,260 seats.

Labour has been warned it could lose as many as 2,000 councillors in a brutal night, with the Tories also set to lose 1,000.

Zack Polanski’s Green Party is likely to be a huge beneficiary, boosting its numbers on councils across the country by about 450, according to leading psephologist Steve Fisher.

If his predictions come true, Reform UK’s gains would dwarf those of Labour under new leader Tony Blair in 1995.

In that year, Labour won 1,661 seats, paving the way for a landslide General Election victory two years later.

By contrast, the backlash against Sir Keir after a series of scandals could make 2026 Labour’s worst defeat on record.

The Prime Minister and his party have tanked in the polls after a series of controversial policies and U-turns, including on winter fuel payments and inheritance tax changes for farmers.

His premiership is said to be on the line after the Mandelson scandal, with questions raised over the PM’s judgement after he appointed the Labour peer as ambassador to the US despite his links to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

A bad set of local election results in May could heap further pressure on Sir Keir to quit, critics have warned.

Reform Storms to Double By-Election Win as Labour Crashes to Catastrophic Defeat

Britain’s political landscape is facing renewed turbulence as Reform UK seeks to turn growing public dissatisfaction with the established parties into a decisive electoral breakthrough. Reports of a strengthened by-election performance, alongside a damaging result for Labour, have intensified questions about the government’s political direction and whether Nigel Farage’s party is becoming a serious challenger to the traditional Westminster establishment.

For Labour, the prospect of another painful electoral setback would raise uncomfortable questions about its connection with voters, its record in government and its ability to restore public confidence. For Reform UK, meanwhile, the opportunity is clear: present itself as the alternative for people who believe the political system has failed to deliver the changes they were promised.

The headline claim of Reform doubling its by-election victories and Labour suffering a catastrophic defeat should be assessed against the official results for the specific contests involved. Nevertheless, the political themes behind the story reflect a wider struggle over immigration, living standards, public services and trust in Britain’s political leadership.

Reform UK Seeks to Turn Momentum Into Votes

Nigel Farage has spent years arguing that the major political parties no longer represent large sections of the electorate. His message centres on tighter immigration controls, a fundamental change in Britain’s political priorities and a rejection of what he portrays as an out-of-touch political establishment.

By-elections offer Reform UK an opportunity to test that message against voters in individual constituencies. Unlike a general election, which is shaped by national campaigning across hundreds of seats, a by-election can focus attention on local frustrations, the performance of the incumbent party and the credibility of competing candidates.

A strong Reform result can therefore have consequences beyond the constituency itself. It may attract media attention, encourage supporters and persuade voters elsewhere that the party has a realistic chance of winning. It can also put pressure on the Conservatives and Labour by forcing both parties to respond to issues that Reform has placed at the centre of the political debate.

However, local contests must be interpreted carefully. Turnout can be significantly lower than at a general election, while candidate reputation, local circumstances and the strength of competing campaigns can influence the result. A by-election breakthrough does not automatically guarantee equivalent success nationwide.

Even so, repeated strong performances could reinforce the perception that Reform is no longer simply a protest movement but a party capable of challenging the established political order.

Why Labour Could Face a Serious Electoral Challenge

For Labour, the danger lies in the possibility that voters who supported the party in the general election are becoming disappointed with its performance in government.

Winning an election creates expectations. Supporters want to see tangible improvements in household finances, public services, housing, employment opportunities and the wider economy. When progress appears slow, political goodwill can disappear quickly.

The cost of living remains central to the debate. Families continue to judge political promises against their own circumstances, including food prices, housing expenses, energy bills and the cost of raising children. Even when inflation slows, prices do not necessarily return to earlier levels, leaving many households feeling financially squeezed.

Public services are another important concern. Long waiting times, pressure on local councils and difficulties accessing essential support can shape how voters assess the government. Labour must demonstrate that its policies are producing practical improvements rather than simply offering explanations for the problems it inherited.

Immigration is also a politically sensitive issue. Voters hold different views about migration, its economic effects and Britain’s humanitarian responsibilities. But concerns about border control, asylum accommodation and the pace of removals can influence electoral choices, particularly when the government appears unable to demonstrate clear progress.

Reform UK has attempted to bring these concerns together into a broader argument that Britain needs a different political direction. Labour’s challenge is to show that it can address public anxieties while defending its own economic, social and constitutional priorities.

Nigel Farage’s Opportunity to Challenge the Establishment

Farage’s political strategy depends on convincing voters that Reform UK offers more than dissatisfaction with the existing parties. Protest votes can help a party make headlines, but sustained electoral success generally requires a credible organisation, candidates who can appeal beyond the core support base and policies that withstand detailed scrutiny.

Reform’s appeal is partly built around a simple promise: political leaders should be held accountable for decisions that voters believe have failed. The party argues that immigration should be brought under tighter control, public spending should deliver clearer results and the political establishment should respond more directly to public concerns.

That message can resonate with voters who feel ignored by Westminster. It can also create difficulties for Labour and the Conservatives, especially in communities where traditional party loyalties have weakened.

Yet momentum brings its own risks. As a party grows, its candidates, financial arrangements, internal organisation and policy proposals face greater scrutiny. Supporters may be united by frustration with the major parties but disagree over economic policy, public services or the practical details of immigration reform.

Reform must therefore show that it can translate its political message into workable proposals. Winning a by-election can create momentum; governing a council or delivering a national programme requires administrative capacity, clear priorities and consistent decision-making.

The Conservatives Face Pressure From Two Directions

Labour is not the only party with reasons to be concerned about Reform’s progress. The Conservatives face the difficult task of recovering voters who believe the party failed to deliver on promises made while it was in government.

For some former Conservative supporters, Reform offers a more uncompromising position on immigration and national sovereignty. Others may be attracted by its criticism of government spending and its rejection of conventional political language.

This creates a strategic dilemma for Conservative leaders. Moving closer to Reform on certain issues could help recover voters who have defected, but it could also alienate moderate supporters or make the party appear to be following Farage rather than setting its own agenda.

A formal electoral pact would create further complications, including disputes over candidate selection, constituencies and policy commitments. Without an agreement, competition between the two parties could divide right-leaning voters in some seats while allowing Reform to build its own independent identity.

The Conservatives must decide whether their recovery depends primarily on returning to familiar policies, presenting a new generation of leadership or responding more directly to the voters who have moved towards Reform.

Whatever strategy they choose, a sequence of strong Reform performances would make it harder for the party to ignore the challenge.

By-Elections Can Send a Warning to Westminster

By-elections often serve as an early indication of changing political attitudes. They can reveal weaknesses that national opinion polls do not fully explain and provide a focal point for voters who want to register dissatisfaction between general elections.

A dramatic result can dominate the news cycle, prompt internal criticism and trigger calls for policy changes. MPs may become more vocal about the government’s direction, while party strategists examine whether the outcome reflects a local problem or a wider national trend.

For Labour, a serious defeat could intensify pressure to demonstrate that its economic and public-service policies are working. It might also encourage calls for a more visible response to immigration concerns and household financial pressures.

For Reform, success would strengthen the argument that its support can translate into actual representation. It could also improve the party’s visibility among voters who previously viewed it as a marginal force.

Nevertheless, one result cannot establish the future of British politics on its own. Turnout, local campaigning and the distribution of votes between competing parties all matter. The strongest evidence of a genuine realignment would come from repeated results across different areas, supported by broader polling and performance at subsequent elections.

The Issues That Could Shape Britain’s Next Political Battle

Several questions are likely to remain at the centre of the competition between Labour, Reform UK and the Conservatives.

Immigration and border security: Reform will continue to press for tougher controls, while Labour will need to demonstrate that its approach can be enforced effectively and lawfully.

Household finances: Voters will look for evidence that wages, living costs, housing affordability and economic security are improving. Political announcements will have limited impact if people do not experience a meaningful difference in their daily lives.

The NHS and public services: Waiting lists, access to appointments and the sustainability of local services will remain important measures of government performance.

Trust in political leadership: Voters increasingly judge parties not only by their promises but by whether they believe politicians are honest about difficult choices. Broken commitments can undermine support rapidly.

Local accountability: Council services, neighbourhood conditions and local economic opportunities can determine whether national political messages translate into votes in individual constituencies.

The parties will need to respond to these concerns with more than slogans. Voters may be attracted by promises of dramatic change, but they will also expect clear explanations of how proposed policies would work and what they would cost.

Can Reform Convert Momentum Into a National Breakthrough?

The central question for Farage is whether Reform UK can maintain its momentum beyond individual electoral contests. A growing vote share can create opportunities, but converting that support into a substantial number of seats requires a geographically broad coalition of voters.

Britain’s electoral system can reward parties whose support is concentrated in particular areas while disadvantaging parties whose votes are spread more evenly. Reform must therefore identify constituencies where it can build strong local campaigns rather than relying entirely on national publicity.

The party must also demonstrate that it can attract voters with different priorities. Immigration may be a central concern for some supporters, while others may be motivated by taxation, economic insecurity or dissatisfaction with public institutions. Holding this coalition together will require a consistent political identity and policies that appeal beyond a single issue.

Labour, in turn, has an opportunity to respond. A difficult by-election result does not make defeat at the next general election inevitable. Governments can recover when they address public concerns, improve delivery and communicate a credible plan for the country. But recovery becomes more difficult when voters repeatedly conclude that their concerns are being ignored.

A Political Warning That Neither Side Can Ignore

A strengthened Reform UK performance and a major Labour setback would represent a significant political warning if confirmed by the official results. It would suggest that frustration with the established parties is translating into electoral consequences and that voters are willing to consider alternatives that once appeared unlikely to challenge Westminster’s dominant forces.

For Farage, the task would be to prove that electoral momentum can become lasting political influence. For Labour, the challenge would be to restore confidence through visible improvements in living standards, public services and the government’s handling of the issues voters consider most urgent. For the Conservatives, Reform’s advance would intensify the struggle to define a credible alternative on the right.

Britain’s political future will not be decided by one by-election alone. But a sustained series of defeats for the major parties could reshape campaign strategies, parliamentary calculations and the debate over who deserves to govern.

The ultimate test is whether the parties can persuade voters that they understand the country’s problems and have realistic plans to address them. If Reform continues to gain ground while Labour struggles to rebuild public trust, the next phase of British politics could become far more competitive—and considerably less predictable—for every party involved.