Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has slipped into third place in a new YouGov poll as Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives enjoy their strongest showing with the pollster since she became party leader.
The latest voting intention figures put Labour narrowly ahead on 24 per cent, with the Conservatives just one point behind on 23 per cent and Reform falling to 21 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats are on 12 per cent and the Greens on 11 per cent, leaving all three of Britain’s largest parties separated by just three points.
For Badenoch, the result provides further evidence of a post-conference recovery after months in which the Conservatives had struggled to compete with Reform for voters on the right. The Tories have gained three points compared with YouGov’s previous poll, while Reform has fallen one point and Labour has dropped three.
It is Reform’s lowest YouGov score since the aftermath of the 2024 general election and represents a considerable reversal from earlier this year, when Farage’s party was regularly leading national voting intention surveys and at times polling around 28 per cent.
Conservatives get another conference bounce
The movement follows the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, where Badenoch attempted to draw a clearer dividing line with both Labour and Reform.
Her announcements included plans to exempt family homes from inheritance tax, halve employer National Insurance for younger workers and pursue significant reductions in government spending. She also used her conference speech to directly appeal to voters who abandoned the Conservatives for Reform at the last election.
That appeal appears to have had at least some immediate effect.
The Conservatives were on 19 per cent in YouGov polling at the end of September, when Reform led on 25 per cent and Labour stood on 24 per cent. The latest figures therefore leave Badenoch’s party four points higher than it was before conference while Reform has fallen four points over roughly two weeks.
A separate Opinium poll published over the weekend also detected a Conservative conference bounce, putting the party up three points to 20 per cent. In that survey Labour remained further ahead on 29 per cent, with Reform on 23 per cent.
The two pollsters produce different headline numbers, but both have now recorded the same broad movement: the Conservatives gaining ground while Reform falls back.
Reform has fallen sharply from its summer highs
The latest result will be more uncomfortable for Farage because Reform spent much of 2026 appearing to have decisively overtaken the Conservatives as the dominant party on the British right.
YouGov’s large voter study earlier this year found that immigration had been crucial to Reform’s rise but also identified a significant part of the party’s coalition as potentially receptive to returning to the Conservatives.
That has always been Badenoch’s opportunity.
Rather than trying to build an entirely new electoral coalition, the Conservatives need to persuade enough former Tory voters that Reform is no longer the only credible vehicle for opposition to Labour.
The gap between them has now disappeared in some polls and reversed in this one.
At the end of June, YouGov had Reform on 24 per cent while Labour and the Conservatives were both on 20 per cent. Reform remained ahead when Burnham replaced Keir Starmer in July and continued reaching 23 and 24 per cent through much of August.
By 20-21 September, however, YouGov had Labour on 23 per cent with both Reform and the Conservatives tied on 21 per cent.
Reform briefly recovered to 25 per cent at the end of September, putting the party narrowly back ahead of Labour, but that rebound has now disappeared.
Labour is still first, but its own conference bounce has faded
There is less comfortable news for Labour in the same poll.
Andy Burnham’s party remains in first place, but only just. Labour has fallen three points from the 27 per cent YouGov recorded following its conference, leaving it only one point ahead of Badenoch.
That means the latest YouGov numbers look considerably tighter than the Opinium poll published over the weekend, which gave Labour a six-point advantage over Reform and a nine-point lead over the Conservatives.
Labour can still point to how far it has recovered since the final months of Keir Starmer’s premiership. YouGov recorded the party as low as 16 per cent in May, when the Greens were beginning to challenge Labour directly for progressive voters and Reform had established a substantial national lead.
Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street produced an immediate improvement, with Labour reaching 24 per cent in YouGov polling by August.
His conference delivered another boost, but the latest result suggests at least part of that movement may have been temporary.
Badenoch records her best YouGov position as Tory leader
For the Conservatives, reaching 23 per cent is psychologically significant after a period in which questions were being asked about whether Reform could permanently replace the party as the main force on the British right.
Badenoch inherited a party that had suffered its worst general election result in modern history and then watched Farage capitalise on Conservative weakness throughout 2025 and the first half of 2026.
Her strategy at conference was noticeably more confrontational towards Reform. Rather than treating Farage primarily as an ally on issues such as immigration and tax, Badenoch attacked the party’s record, questioned whether it was ready to govern and appealed directly to voters who had abandoned the Conservatives.
She also told the party to prepare for a general election “at any point”, despite Burnham repeatedly insisting he has no intention of calling an early contest.
The latest figures give Badenoch some evidence that her argument is beginning to land, although one poll immediately after conference cannot establish whether the change will last.
Conference bounces frequently fade once political attention moves elsewhere, and YouGov’s three largest parties are now so close that relatively small changes could alter their positions from one survey to the next.
A remarkable change from only two weeks ago
The speed of the movement is particularly striking when the latest figures are compared with YouGov’s poll from 27 and 28 September.
At that point Reform was first on 25 per cent, Labour followed on 24 per cent and the Conservatives were considerably further behind on 19 per cent.
Two weeks later, Labour remains on exactly the same 24 per cent while the parties behind it have effectively swapped places. The Conservatives have risen from 19 to 23 per cent and Reform has fallen from 25 to 21 per cent.
That does not mean four points of Reform support have simply moved directly to Badenoch. Voters can move between several parties or into and out of the undecided column, and changes of this size should not automatically be interpreted as direct transfers without detailed voter-flow data.
It does, however, leave Farage facing a political challenge that looked much less urgent during the summer.
Reform’s argument that it had permanently overtaken the Conservatives rested heavily on sustained polling evidence showing it ahead of Badenoch’s party. The latest YouGov figures put the Conservatives back above Reform for the first time in the current post-conference period, while Labour retains the narrowest of national leads.
Joe Connor is a UK-based reporter specialising in politics, public policy, and national affairs. He has previously contributed to publications including The London Economic (JOE Media Group) and Spotted News.
At The Daily Britain, he covers Westminster politics, elections, and breaking political developments, alongside in-depth analysis of policy decisions and their real-world impact.
Reform Slips to Third as Conservatives Overtake Farage in New YouGov Poll
Nigel Farage has suffered a significant political setback after a new YouGov poll placed Reform UK in third position, behind both Labour and the Conservatives, in a development that could signal a changing mood among British voters.
The latest figures represent an uncomfortable moment for the Reform leader, whose party had enjoyed a remarkable period of political momentum and had frequently been presented as the biggest challenger to the established political parties.
However, the new survey suggests that the Conservatives are beginning to recover under Kemi Badenoch, while Labour has managed to retain its position at the top of the standings.
According to the YouGov figures, Labour received 24 per cent support, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent.
Reform UK, meanwhile, fell to 21 per cent, placing Farage’s party behind both of its main rivals for the first time since the 2024 general election.
Although the differences between the parties are relatively small, the political symbolism of the result is considerable.
For months, Reform had enjoyed a position that many Conservative politicians would once have considered almost unthinkable.
Farage’s party had regularly attracted support from voters who were frustrated with the traditional political establishment and believed that neither Labour nor the Conservatives could deliver the changes Britain needed.
The latest poll suggests that at least some of that momentum may be weakening.
For Kemi Badenoch, the figures provide a much-needed opportunity to demonstrate that the Conservatives are not finished as a major political force.
Her party has endured a difficult period following its disastrous general election defeat.
It has faced internal disagreements, questions about its leadership and the growing challenge posed by Reform UK.
Farage has repeatedly attempted to convince Conservative voters that his movement represents the future of the British right.
But Badenoch is now attempting to reverse that narrative.
Her recent party conference appears to have provided an immediate boost, with Conservative support increasing by three percentage points compared with the previous YouGov survey.
The improvement follows a series of announcements designed to appeal to working families, homeowners and higher-income voters.
Among the proposals attracting attention was a pledge to abolish inheritance tax on family homes.
Badenoch also sought to present the Conservatives as a party committed to allowing people to retain more of their earnings and reducing the financial pressures facing households.
These announcements were intended to show that the Conservatives still have a distinctive economic vision.
For voters who abandoned the party in favour of Reform, the challenge is whether Badenoch can convince them that returning to the Conservatives is a realistic option.
Her message is increasingly direct.
The Conservatives want to demonstrate that they can offer a stronger alternative to Labour without relying on the political style or promises associated with Farage.
The latest polling suggests that this strategy may be attracting attention.
However, a three-point increase does not necessarily mean the Conservatives have permanently reversed their fortunes.
Party conference polling boosts can be temporary.
Media coverage, prominent speeches and new policy announcements can produce short-term movements that disappear once political attention shifts elsewhere.
The Conservatives will therefore need to demonstrate that their improvement is sustainable.
For Nigel Farage, the situation is considerably more complicated.
Reform UK has spent much of the recent political period attempting to establish itself as Britain’s leading alternative to Labour.
Farage has built his political strategy around the belief that millions of voters are ready to abandon the traditional parties.
Immigration, national identity, taxation and dissatisfaction with public services have all played important roles in that strategy.
His supporters argue that Britain needs a fundamental change in political direction and that Reform is the only party prepared to challenge the existing system.
The party’s rise has been one of the most significant developments in British politics since the 2024 election.
However, the latest figures suggest that its position may not be as secure as previously believed.
A fall to 21 per cent represents a particularly uncomfortable result because Reform had previously enjoyed a substantial advantage over the Conservatives in several national surveys.
The question now is whether Farage can regain the momentum before the Conservatives rebuild their support further.
There are several possible explanations for Reform’s declining position.
One issue is the increasing scrutiny that comes with political success.
When a party is relatively small, voters may be willing to support it as a protest against the established political system.
But as its chances of gaining power appear more realistic, expectations become considerably higher.
Voters begin asking more detailed questions about policies, leadership, experience and the practical consequences of its promises.
Reform must demonstrate that it can do more than criticise Labour and the Conservatives.
It needs to show that it has credible answers to the country’s economic and social problems.
Another challenge is the competition for voters on the political right.
The Conservatives and Reform share some important areas of political interest, particularly concerning immigration, taxation and national sovereignty.
This creates an increasingly difficult battle for the same sections of the electorate.
Badenoch knows that recovering even a relatively small proportion of former Conservative supporters could significantly change the political balance.
Farage, meanwhile, cannot afford to assume that voters who have moved towards Reform will remain loyal regardless of what happens.
The party’s recent difficulties have also attracted attention.
Questions surrounding political donations, internal disagreements and the departure of senior figures have created additional pressure for the Reform leadership.
Farage has attempted to maintain control of the political conversation, but controversies can make it harder for a party to focus attention on its policy programme.
For an organisation presenting itself as a government-in-waiting, internal stability and transparency are important.
Voters want to know whether Reform can operate effectively beyond its campaign appearances and television interviews.
Labour, despite remaining in first place, should not necessarily interpret the latest figures as an overwhelming victory.
Its 24 per cent support places it only one percentage point ahead of the Conservatives.
The government continues to face substantial challenges involving the economy, public services and the cost of living.
Many households remain concerned about housing expenses, energy bills and the affordability of everyday essentials.
Pensioners want greater financial security, while working families are looking for evidence that political promises will improve their living standards.
Businesses also need confidence that the government can create conditions for investment and economic growth.
These issues will ultimately matter more to many voters than temporary movements in opinion polls.
Labour’s narrow lead therefore comes with its own responsibilities.
The party must demonstrate that it can deliver tangible improvements rather than relying on the difficulties facing its political opponents.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats recorded 12 per cent, while the Green Party remained on 11 per cent.
Their continued presence in the political landscape highlights how fragmented British politics has become.
The traditional two-party system is facing pressure from several directions.
Smaller parties are attracting voters who feel that their concerns are not adequately represented by Labour or the Conservatives.
This makes the next general election particularly difficult to predict.
Even relatively small movements in support could have significant consequences in individual constituencies.
A party polling a few percentage points higher nationally may still struggle to translate that support into parliamentary seats if its voters are spread inefficiently across the country.
For Reform, the immediate priority will be to understand why its support has weakened and whether the decline is temporary.
Farage will also need to consider how his party responds to the Conservatives’ renewed efforts to attract right-wing voters.
If Badenoch succeeds in convincing former supporters to return, Reform could face a much more competitive political environment.
The Conservatives, however, must avoid becoming overconfident.
Their recovery remains fragile, and voters have not necessarily forgotten the problems that contributed to their previous defeat.
Badenoch needs to prove that her leadership represents a genuine change rather than simply another attempt to repackage familiar Conservative policies.
The coming months will therefore be crucial for both parties.
For Farage, the latest YouGov poll is a warning that political momentum cannot be taken for granted.
For Badenoch, it offers an opportunity to show that the Conservatives can still compete for national leadership.
And for Labour, remaining ahead of both rivals will require continued political discipline and convincing results in government.
The most important lesson from the figures is that Britain’s political landscape remains extremely unpredictable.
Reform may have slipped to third, but the gap between the three largest parties is remarkably narrow.
A single poll cannot determine the outcome of the next election, and the reported movements were within the survey’s margin of error.
Nevertheless, the result provides a significant moment for the Conservatives and an uncomfortable reminder for Farage that his political opponents are not prepared to surrender the fight.
The battle for Britain’s voters is entering another unpredictable phase.
Whether this marks the beginning of a genuine Conservative comeback or simply a temporary conference bounce remains to be seen.
One thing is certain: Nigel Farage can no longer assume that Reform UK will remain comfortably ahead of the Conservatives.