Nigel Farage is heading for No10 according to a new poll (Image: Getty)

Reform UK is on course for a landslide majority at the election, as a new poll reveals Nigel Farage’s party is now polling more than Labour and the Tories combined. FindOutNow asked voters who they would back at the election, and found Reform now sits well ahead of all other parties on 34% of the vote.

Labour support is now at just 18%, their lowest since 2019, while the Tories have fallen another two points to a paltry 15%. The LibDems are closing in on Kemi Badenoch, rising one point to 13%, with the Greens on 10%. According to the Electoral Calculus website, this would hand Nigel Farage both the keys to Downing Street, and a landslide majority.

Reform Hails Bombshell New Poll as Nigel Farage Faces a Changing Political Landscape

Reform UK has spent months presenting itself as a serious contender for power, with Nigel Farage arguing that growing frustration with the traditional political parties could reshape British politics. A favourable poll can provide a powerful boost to that message, but the latest figures also highlight how quickly the political landscape can change.

For Farage and his supporters, the prospect of winning a general election represents the culmination of a long campaign to challenge Labour and the Conservatives. Reform has sought to attract voters concerned about immigration, the cost of living, public services and confidence in Westminster. Its central argument is that the established parties have failed to address problems that matter to ordinary households.

However, the latest polling picture is more complicated than a straightforward prediction of a Reform landslide. Recent surveys have produced differing results, with Labour and the Conservatives recovering in some polls while Reform’s support has fallen in others. The figures underline both the opportunities available to Farage and the obstacles facing his party.

Reform’s Ambition to Break the Political Establishment

Reform UK has built much of its appeal around the claim that Britain needs a fundamental change in political direction. Farage has repeatedly criticised the record of successive governments, particularly on immigration, taxation and economic growth.

The party’s strategy is to persuade voters who feel overlooked by the established political parties that Reform offers a credible alternative. Its campaign has focused on stricter immigration controls, reducing government waste, changing the tax system and prioritising British interests.

This message has attracted attention among voters who believe the Conservatives failed to deliver on promises made after Brexit and who remain dissatisfied with Labour’s handling of the economy and public services.

Yet attracting protest votes is not the same as building a stable governing coalition. To translate its support into parliamentary seats, Reform must convince voters that it has the policies, personnel and organisational capacity to run the country.

That challenge becomes particularly important when polling suggests that support for the party is moving in different directions.

What the Latest Polling Figures Show

A YouGov survey conducted on October 18 and 19, 2026, for The Times and Sky News placed Labour on 27 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform UK on 22 per cent. The survey included 2,520 adults across Great Britain. <Cite refs={[“turn483307search2”]}/>

These figures did not show Reform leading nationally. Instead, they placed the party narrowly behind the Conservatives and four percentage points behind Labour.

Another survey, conducted by Find Out Now on October 21 and 22, put Labour on 26.4 per cent, the Conservatives on 21.2 per cent and Reform on 20.3 per cent. Although the precise figures differed, the broad picture was similar: Reform remained a significant political force but was not ahead in that poll. <Cite refs={[“turn483307search11”]}/>

These results matter because they demonstrate why individual polls should be interpreted carefully. Different pollsters use different methodologies, and small changes in voting intention can fall within a survey’s margin of error.

A poll that projects a large number of parliamentary seats for Reform can also produce a different picture from one that simply measures national voting intention. Constituency-level modelling attempts to estimate how votes might translate into seats, but those estimates depend on assumptions about turnout, regional support and the behaviour of individual voters.

A projected landslide is therefore a possible scenario under particular assumptions, not a guarantee of what would happen at an election.

Why Farage Continues to Attract Attention

Farage has established a distinctive political identity built around direct communication, criticism of established institutions and a willingness to challenge conventional party positions.

His supporters view that approach as evidence that he is prepared to address difficult questions that other politicians avoid. His critics argue that some of his proposals lack sufficient detail or could create significant economic and social consequences.

Immigration remains central to this debate. Reform has called for a much stricter approach to irregular migration and asylum, arguing that existing arrangements place pressure on public services and weaken confidence in border controls.

The party has also sought to capitalise on concerns about household finances. Rising housing costs, energy bills and pressure on public services have left many voters looking for policies that promise practical improvements.

However, voters may judge Reform not only on its criticism of the government but also on whether its proposed measures are workable, affordable and consistent with the country’s legal obligations.

As the next general election approaches, the party will need to demonstrate that its programme extends beyond opposition to Labour and the Conservatives.

Labour and the Conservatives Still Have a Role to Play

Although Reform has challenged the traditional political order, Labour and the Conservatives retain substantial support.

Labour’s recent polling recovery suggests that some voters may be reassessing the government’s prospects under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Its performance will depend partly on whether the government can demonstrate progress on economic growth, living standards, immigration and public services.

For the Conservatives, the challenge is to rebuild trust after their previous period in government while presenting a clear alternative to both Labour and Reform. The party must also decide how it intends to respond to Farage’s growing influence without abandoning its own political identity.

The competition between these parties could become increasingly important if support remains divided. Even when one party leads a national poll, the distribution of votes across constituencies can determine whether it secures a parliamentary majority.

That is why seat projections often attract as much attention as headline voting-intention figures.

Can a Poll Really Predict a Landslide?

The word “landslide” carries considerable political weight, but its meaning depends on the size of a party’s eventual parliamentary majority rather than simply its share of the national vote.

Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system means that a party’s support must be distributed efficiently across constituencies to produce a large number of seats. A party can receive a substantial share of the national vote without winning a comparable proportion of parliamentary representation.

The reverse is also possible: a party with geographically concentrated support may secure more seats than its national vote share initially suggests.

This makes constituency modelling valuable, but it also introduces uncertainty. Changes in local campaigns, candidate selection, tactical voting and turnout can all affect the final result.

A poll showing Reform on course for a major victory would therefore be significant as an indication of one possible electoral outcome. It would not establish that Farage was certain to become prime minister.

For Reform, the challenge is to sustain its support over time and ensure that voters who agree with its criticisms are also prepared to back its candidates at the ballot box.

The Road Ahead for Reform UK

Farage’s ambitions remain tied to his ability to persuade voters that Reform can offer more than a protest against the established parties. The party must develop credible policies, build its organisation across the country and convince undecided voters that it can govern effectively.

Its opponents, meanwhile, will seek to challenge its proposals and highlight any weaknesses in its leadership, finances or policy programme.

The next phase of British politics will depend on how these competing arguments develop and whether current polling trends persist. Economic conditions, government decisions and events during the campaign could all change the balance of support.

For now, the polling evidence presents a mixed picture. Reform remains a serious participant in the national political debate, but recent surveys do not establish that a landslide is inevitable.

The central question is whether Farage can turn his party’s support into sustained electoral strength across the constituencies that determine control of Parliament. A favourable poll may energise Reform’s campaign, but winning power would require a convincing performance well beyond the headlines.

Ultimately, voters—not pollsters or party declarations—will decide the outcome at the next general election. Until then, claims of a coming landslide should be treated as projections rather than settled fact.