Reform UK has dealt yet another blow to Labour with its latest triumphant council by-election win.
A series of by-elections were held for local government seats on Thursday, with Nigel Farage’s party storming to victory in Trevethin and Penygarn in Torfaen, Wales, gaining 47% of the vote from a standing start.
Labour plummeted a whopping 49.2% to just 26.6% of the vote, down from 75.8% last time. Two independents then came in third and fourth, with the Greens in fifth on 2.6%.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK secured another council by-election win (Image: Getty)
The Conservatives, who won 24.1% of the vote in 2022, did not stand a candidate.
Reform UK is hoping for rich pickings at the Welsh Senedd elections in 2026, with polls suggesting it could beat Labour and come second overall.
The party’s chairman, Zia Yusuf, described the latest win as “resounding” and said: “Our campaign machine is starting to fire.”
Labour was also defeated by the Green Party in a Warwick council by-election on Thursday, with Reform plunging Sir Keir Starmer‘s party into third place
The party won the All Saints and Woodloes seat in 2023 with 44% of the vote.
However, it lost 24.7% of its voe share on Thursday as the Greens surged 22.1% and took the seat. Reform UK soared to 21.8% of the vote, taking second place.
The Tories lost 15.7% of their vote share, coming in a fourth.
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Zia Yusuf called the win ‘resounding’ (Image: Getty)
Labour did manage to hold a by-election seat in Barnet, London, albeit losing 18.2% of its vote – similar to the amount Reform gained.
In the Stevenage borough of Manor, Labour lost 12.3% of its vote share. The Liberal Democrats held the seat.
In line with recent polling the by-elections show Labour has shed support since coming to government seven months ago.
In one Find Out Now poll on Thursday, Reform had a lead of six points over Labour, with Sir Keir’s party down to just 23%.
Reform came first on 29%, while the Tories languished in third place on 21%.
Reform Deals Another Huge Blow to Labour in Stunning Election Victory
Reform UK has delivered another setback for Labour in local election contests, strengthening Nigel Farage’s argument that voters are increasingly willing to abandon the traditional political parties. The results have added to pressure on Labour to demonstrate that it can rebuild public confidence, particularly in communities where economic concerns, immigration and dissatisfaction with public services have become major political issues.
One notable victory came in Eckington, Derbyshire, where Reform candidate Jamie Hodgson won a seat on North East Derbyshire District Council in a September 2026 by-election. Reform secured approximately 40 per cent of the vote, while Labour’s share fell from 60 per cent at the previous contest to 28 per cent. The result offered a clear example of how quickly the balance of support can change in local politics.
For Farage, such contests provide an opportunity to argue that Reform’s appeal extends beyond national opinion polls and is translating into representation at local level. For Labour, they underline the difficulty of maintaining support when voters are dissatisfied with the direction of government policy.
However, a local by-election cannot determine the outcome of a future general election. Its significance lies in what it may reveal about local concerns, changing party loyalties and the challenges facing Labour as it attempts to maintain its electoral coalition.
A Warning Sign for Labour
Local election results can offer political parties an early indication of changing public attitudes. Although individual wards have their own circumstances, shifts in voting patterns may highlight concerns that national leaders cannot afford to ignore.
Labour’s difficulties are particularly significant because the party entered government promising to improve living standards, restore confidence in public services and deliver a more stable approach to economic management. Those commitments created expectations among voters who wanted a change of direction after years of Conservative government.
When voters believe that progress is too slow, however, the governing party can become vulnerable to challengers offering a different approach.
Reform has sought to capitalise on that frustration by presenting itself as an alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives. Farage’s message focuses on immigration control, lower public expenditure, national sovereignty and the argument that established politicians have failed to respond adequately to public concerns.
The party’s local victories give that message a more tangible dimension. Winning council seats allows Reform to demonstrate that its support can produce elected representatives, rather than remaining confined to national political debate.
Nevertheless, Labour’s performance in any individual contest must be understood in context. Local issues, candidate selection, turnout and the strength of competing parties can all influence the result. The most useful assessment comes from examining the size of the swing, the previous voting pattern and whether similar movements are occurring elsewhere.
Reform’s Strategy Under Nigel Farage
Farage has built Reform around the proposition that Britain needs a substantial change in political direction. His strategy is to attract voters who believe Labour and the Conservatives have become too similar on important issues or have failed to deliver the outcomes they promised.
Immigration remains a central part of that argument. Reform has called for stronger border enforcement and significant changes to the country’s immigration arrangements. The party also criticises the cost of government, arguing that public spending should be reduced and taxpayers should receive better value for money.
These positions appeal to voters who believe that successive governments have not adequately addressed their concerns. But Reform’s challenge is to persuade a wider electorate that its proposals are practical, affordable and capable of producing measurable improvements.
Local elections provide an important test because candidates must engage with issues that affect residents directly. These may include council tax, waste collection, housing, planning, roads and the provision of local services.
Winning a seat is only the beginning. Councillors must also demonstrate that they can manage budgets, work effectively within local government and respond to residents’ concerns.
As Reform expands its presence in councils, its representatives will face greater scrutiny of their decisions. That experience could help the party develop its administrative credentials, but it could also expose disagreements or difficulties that are less visible when it operates primarily as an opposition movement.
For Farage, the long-term objective is to turn political dissatisfaction into a durable organisation with a record that voters can evaluate.
Why Labour Is Vulnerable to Protest Votes
The cost of living remains an important consideration for voters across Britain. Household budgets are affected by housing costs, food prices, energy bills, taxation and the availability of secure employment.
Even when economic indicators improve, individuals may not immediately feel the benefits. People who are struggling with mortgage payments, rent or everyday expenses may judge the Government by their personal circumstances rather than by national economic statistics.
Public services are another source of concern. Pressure on the NHS, local authority budgets and social care can leave residents feeling that they are paying more without receiving the improvements they expect.
Labour must therefore demonstrate that its policies are producing visible results. Announcements about long-term reform may not be enough if voters cannot see progress in their communities.
Reform has attempted to connect these frustrations to a broader criticism of the political establishment. Its message suggests that changing the party in power will not be sufficient unless government priorities also change.
That argument can be effective in local contests because voters have an opportunity to express dissatisfaction without necessarily making a final judgement about who should lead the country.
However, protest voting can have different meanings. Some voters may be committed Reform supporters, while others may simply want to send a message to Labour or register frustration with several parties simultaneously.
The distinction matters because a temporary protest does not automatically translate into lasting loyalty.
The Conservatives Face Their Own Challenge
Reform’s advances have consequences for the Conservatives as well as Labour. The two parties compete for many of the same voters, particularly people who prioritise immigration, taxation and a more restrictive approach to government spending.
When Reform wins a seat previously held by Labour, the result may weaken confidence in the governing party. When it defeats the Conservatives, it raises a different question: whether Farage’s party is becoming the principal choice for voters on the right.
Reform demonstrated the latter possibility in East Markham, Nottinghamshire, in September 2026. Candidate Matthew Evans won a district council seat in Robert Jenrick’s Newark constituency, securing almost half the vote in a ward that had previously been strongly Conservative.
The Conservatives finished second, while Labour came third. Farage used the result to criticise the Tories, illustrating how Reform’s local successes can put pressure on both established parties.
The Conservatives face a difficult strategic choice. They can attempt to recover voters by adopting policies closer to Reform’s positions, or they can distinguish themselves through their governing experience and a different approach to economic and social issues.
Either strategy requires more than rhetoric. The party must explain why voters who previously rejected it should reconsider their decision.
The possibility of Reform drawing support from both Labour and Conservative voters is especially important. It suggests that the party’s appeal cannot be explained solely as a movement within one part of the political spectrum.
Local Victories Do Not Guarantee National Success
Although local election results can be politically significant, they should not be treated as direct predictions of a general election.
The electoral systems and circumstances differ. Local contests often involve smaller electorates, distinctive community issues and varying levels of turnout. A candidate may benefit from a strong personal reputation or a local campaign that does not translate directly into a national contest.
At a general election, voters must consider the leadership of the country, the economy, public services, foreign policy and the full range of national responsibilities.
Reform would also need to demonstrate that it can field credible candidates across hundreds of constituencies and maintain an organisation capable of supporting a national campaign.
Its policy proposals would face more detailed scrutiny, particularly on questions involving public finances, immigration enforcement and the delivery of public services.
The first-past-the-post voting system adds another complication. A party’s national share of the vote does not automatically determine how many parliamentary seats it wins. The geographic distribution of its support and the competitiveness of individual constituencies can have a substantial effect.
Consequently, Reform’s local victories should be regarded as evidence of changing political competition rather than proof of a predetermined national outcome.
Labour’s Response Will Be Crucial
For Labour, the immediate challenge is to understand why voters are moving away from the party in particular communities and determine what changes would address their concerns.
That requires examining local circumstances rather than assuming every defeat has the same cause. In some areas, economic frustration may be decisive. Elsewhere, immigration, dissatisfaction with public services or the personal standing of candidates may play a larger role.
Labour must also decide how to respond to Reform without allowing its rival to dictate every aspect of the political debate.
Adopting tougher rhetoric on immigration, for example, may appeal to some voters but alienate others who prioritise civil liberties, economic openness or the treatment of asylum seekers. Similarly, promising spending reductions may satisfy concerns about taxation while raising questions about the services that would be affected.
The Government’s broader task is to demonstrate that its policies can deliver practical improvements while explaining the costs, trade-offs and timescales involved.
A credible response would require measurable objectives, transparent progress reports and a willingness to acknowledge where policies are not working as intended.
The same principle applies to Reform. If the party presents itself as an alternative government, it will increasingly be expected to explain how its proposals would operate in practice.
A Changing Political Landscape
Reform’s latest local successes add to evidence that British politics is becoming more competitive and less predictable. Labour can no longer assume that dissatisfaction with the Conservatives will automatically translate into support for the governing party, while the Tories face a challenger seeking to capture voters who once formed a central part of their electoral base.
For Farage, each victory provides an opportunity to expand the party’s local presence and argue that voters are prepared to support a different political approach. For Labour, the results underline the need to demonstrate that its promises can translate into visible improvements.
Yet the future remains open. Local results are shaped by individual circumstances, and the political environment can change considerably before the next general election.
The central question is whether Reform can convert its growing local presence into sustained support, effective administration and a credible national programme. Labour, meanwhile, must show that it can respond to voters’ concerns and maintain confidence in its ability to govern.
The latest election victory is therefore significant not because it settles the future of British politics, but because it highlights the pressure facing the established parties. As the next electoral contests approach, both Labour and the Conservatives will have to respond to a political landscape in which Reform is increasingly difficult to ignore.