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Reform is eight points ahead of the Tories on 21%, up three points from the previous week.

The Lib Dems are on 12%, while the Greens are on 9%, both down one, in the poll of 3,421 British adults carried out yesterday.

It comes as Reform, which returned five MPs in July’s general election but came second in 98 constituencies, has led a series of national opinion polls.

Speaking to the Daily Express at a rally in Essex, he said: “Some great polls, amazing polls, so we are the opposition.

“Can Reform win the next election? Well, the history books say no, but I just feel something remarkable is going on, something really historic, something we’ve never seen in our lifetimes.

“Probably the last time you saw a movement like this was in 1918 when Labour suddenly emerged as a massive political party and the Liberals disappeared as a party of government. There is a good chance I could be the next prime minister.”

Reform Beats Labour by Six Points in New Poll Blow to Keir Starmer

Reform UK has suffered a setback in the latest battle for public support, with a new opinion poll placing Labour six percentage points ahead of Nigel Farage’s party. The findings challenge the narrative that Reform’s rise would continue unchecked and highlight the changing political landscape facing Britain’s major parties.

The Survation poll, conducted between 2 and 5 October 2026, put Labour on 30 per cent, compared with 24 per cent for Reform UK. The Conservatives stood at 19 per cent, followed by the Liberal Democrats on nine per cent and the Green Party on eight per cent. Labour and Reform had both gained one percentage point since Survation’s previous poll on 29 September. Labour’s lead therefore remained six points, although the latest figures represented a stronger position for the governing party than it had occupied during earlier periods of the political contest.

The results offer a snapshot of voting intentions rather than a prediction of the next general election. Nevertheless, they raise important questions about the direction of British politics, the durability of Reform’s support and whether Labour can maintain its recent improvement.

Labour’s Recovery Changes the Political Conversation

For much of the recent political debate, Reform has attracted considerable attention by challenging the established parties on immigration, public spending and dissatisfaction with Westminster. Farage has attempted to turn those issues into a broader argument that Britain needs a fundamental change of political direction.

The latest Survation figures suggest that Labour has regained some ground in that contest.

With 30 per cent of respondents saying they would vote Labour, the party recorded its highest support in Survation polling since December 2024, according to the pollster. Reform, meanwhile, remained on 24 per cent, within the 23–24 per cent range it had recorded across its previous five polls.

The findings are significant because they show that the competition is not static. Public opinion can shift as voters reassess the Government, consider new policy proposals and respond to changes in party leadership.

However, a six-point lead does not mean Labour has secured lasting public confidence. Polls measure stated voting intentions at a particular moment, and those intentions can change before an election takes place.

The figures also do not establish that every voter who has moved away from Reform has returned to Labour. The movement in support may involve several parties and different groups of voters.

For Labour, the immediate challenge is to turn improved polling figures into sustained confidence in its programme. For Reform, the question is whether it can regain momentum while maintaining its appeal among voters dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment.

What the Numbers Reveal

The Survation survey offers a clear picture of the relative positions of the major parties at the beginning of October.

Labour recorded 30 per cent, with Reform on 24 per cent. The Conservatives were third on 19 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens received nine and eight per cent respectively.

These figures illustrate the fragmentation of British political support. Although Labour led the poll, its 30 per cent share also meant that seven in ten respondents did not select the party as their preferred option.

Reform’s 24 per cent support demonstrated that it remained a substantial force in the national political conversation. Its position was below Labour’s, but it was still ahead of the Conservatives in this particular survey.

The Conservatives’ 19 per cent figure presents another challenge. The party is competing not only against Labour but also against Reform, which has sought to attract voters who previously supported the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats and Greens face their own difficulties in a political environment where the main parties are competing for attention on issues such as living costs, climate policy, immigration and public services.

It is important to remember that the results represent one poll, not a definitive measure of the country’s political mood. Other pollsters use different methods, and the findings can vary according to fieldwork dates, question wording and the way respondents are weighted.

Indeed, a separate YouGov poll conducted on 4 and 5 October placed Labour on 27 per cent and Reform on 22 per cent, with the Conservatives at 20 per cent. That survey also showed Labour ahead, although its estimated lead was five points rather than six.

The two polls therefore point in a similar direction while demonstrating why individual results should be considered alongside a wider range of evidence.

Why Reform’s Support Matters

Farage has built Reform UK around a message that the established parties have failed to address important public concerns. Immigration, border enforcement, taxation and the cost of government have all featured prominently in the party’s campaigning.

That message has allowed Reform to attract people who are frustrated with both Labour and the Conservatives. Its challenge is to maintain that support while convincing a broader electorate that it has practical answers to Britain’s problems.

A national poll showing Reform on 24 per cent indicates that the party continues to command significant support. It also suggests that the contest for voters who want political change remains open.

Yet the party faces questions that extend beyond the size of its polling share. Voters may want to know how its spending proposals would affect public services, how its immigration policies would operate in practice and whether its candidates could manage the responsibilities of government.

Reform must also navigate the difficulty of appealing to different groups whose priorities do not always align. Voters who favour lower taxes may have different expectations from those who want increased public spending in particular areas. People concerned about immigration may also disagree over economic policy or the future relationship between Britain and Europe.

Farage’s task is to maintain a coherent political programme that can accommodate those competing priorities.

The latest poll does not resolve those questions, but it provides a measure of where the party stands as it continues to build its national profile.

Labour Must Still Address Voters’ Concerns

A stronger polling position gives Labour an opportunity to argue that it is recovering support. It does not remove the pressures confronting the Government.

Voters continue to assess political parties through everyday experiences, including the cost of housing, energy and food, the availability of employment, taxation and access to public services.

A government can improve its position in opinion polls without resolving every problem that concerns the electorate. Equally, a party can face criticism over particular policies while retaining support among people who believe it offers a more credible long-term approach.

Labour must therefore demonstrate that its programme produces results that people can see and understand.

Economic performance is particularly important. National growth figures and changes in inflation can influence perceptions, but households may judge progress by whether their wages cover their expenses and whether their financial circumstances have become more secure.

Public services present another challenge. Commitments to improve the NHS, strengthen employment support or reform local services must eventually translate into outcomes that voters can assess.

Immigration remains a politically sensitive issue as well. Labour must explain how it intends to manage the system, enforce the rules and address public concerns while meeting its legal and administrative responsibilities.

If the party cannot demonstrate progress, a temporary improvement in polling could prove difficult to sustain. The latest results provide an indication of improved voting intentions, but they do not guarantee continued support.

The Conservatives Face a Difficult Position

The Conservatives’ 19 per cent share in the Survation poll places them behind both Labour and Reform.

For Kemi Badenoch and her colleagues, this creates a difficult strategic choice. They must decide how to recover voters who have moved towards Reform without losing those who remain committed to a distinct Conservative programme.

Moving closer to Farage on immigration and other issues might appeal to some former Conservative voters. However, it could also reinforce the perception that Reform is the more established voice for that political position.

Alternatively, the Conservatives could seek to differentiate themselves through their governing experience, economic proposals and approach to public services. That strategy would require the party to explain why voters should trust it again after its record in office.

The latest polling figures do not determine which approach would be more effective. They do, however, illustrate the pressure created by a political system in which several parties are competing for overlapping groups of voters.

The Conservatives’ position also matters because the distribution of support can have major implications under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system. National vote shares do not translate directly into parliamentary seats, and the geographic concentration of support can make a substantial difference.

A party’s performance in individual constituencies may therefore differ significantly from its position in national polling.

What Does This Mean for Keir Starmer?

The headline frames the poll as a blow to Keir Starmer, but the latest figures require a more careful interpretation.

The Survation survey shows Labour leading Reform by six points under the voting intentions recorded in early October. That is a favourable position relative to a period when Reform had been ahead in some national polls.

However, it would be misleading to interpret a single survey as proof that the political contest has been settled. The margin between parties can change, and polling uncertainty means that small movements should not automatically be treated as evidence of a lasting trend.

The wider political context also matters. The performance of the Government, the opposition parties’ campaigning, economic developments and major policy announcements could all influence voters’ views over time.

For Labour, the central issue is whether improved support can be sustained through effective government and clear policy delivery. For Reform, the task is to understand why its support has levelled off in this poll and whether its campaign can persuade more voters to back its programme.

Neither party can assume that the current figures will remain unchanged.

A Contest That Remains Open

The Survation poll provides an important snapshot of Britain’s political landscape in October 2026. Labour stood at 30 per cent, six points ahead of Reform on 24 per cent, while the Conservatives remained third on 19 per cent.

The results indicate that Reform’s rise is not an uninterrupted process and that Labour has regained support in this survey. They also show that the Conservatives continue to face competition from a party seeking to reshape the political right.

But polling is a measure of current opinion, not a verdict on the next general election. The figures do not establish which party will win, how many seats each would secure or whether voters will maintain their current preferences.

The coming months will test whether Labour can convert its improved position into lasting confidence, whether Reform can expand its appeal beyond its existing supporters and whether the Conservatives can establish a distinct role in a changing political environment.

For now, the six-point gap provides a clear measure of the contest between Labour and Reform in this particular survey. Its longer-term significance will depend on whether the trend continues across subsequent polls and whether the parties can persuade voters that their policies will deliver meaningful improvements.

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