Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK takes the lead in a new poll published today. The Find Out Now survey puts the insurgent party on 31%, up one point from the week before.
Labour is eight points behind on 23%, down one from the previous week. Meanwhile, the Conservatives trail behind in third place on an unchanged 16%. The Lib Dems take 12% and the Greens receive 11% in the poll of 2,628 British adults carried out yesterday.
It comes after Reform was plunged into chaos earlier this month when chairman Zia Yusuf quit in a burka ban row.
He described a question by new Reform MP Sarah Pochin at PMQs calling for a ban on the garment in Britain as “dumb”.
But he returned 48 hours later saying he had made an “error”.
Mr Yusuf will now head up the party’s “UK Doge” to cut public spending.
It is based on the US Department of Government Efficiency which was led by tech billionaire Elon Musk.
He described the job on Tuesday as “one of the most important missions this country will embark on since World War Two”.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Tops New Poll as Labour and Tories Are Dealt Huge Blow
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was riding a remarkable wave of support in June 2025, with a new poll putting the party ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives and underlining just how dramatically Britain’s political landscape had shifted since the general election.
The figures represented a major moment for Reform. Only months earlier, the party had been viewed largely as a disruptive force on the right of British politics. By the summer of 2025, however, it was increasingly competing directly with the two traditional governing parties for support across a much wider section of the electorate.
The most striking evidence came from Ipsos, whose June Political Monitor put Reform UK on 34 per cent, nine points ahead of Labour on 25 per cent and 19 points ahead of the Conservatives on 15 per cent. It was the highest vote share Ipsos had ever recorded for Reform, while Labour’s figure was its lowest Ipsos result since October 2019 and the Conservatives’ was their lowest ever in the pollster’s series.
The numbers immediately intensified pressure on Keir Starmer and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
For Farage, they provided further evidence for his argument that British voters were increasingly prepared to look beyond the established parties.
Reform’s extraordinary rise
Reform’s rise had been building for months.
The party had won five seats at the 2024 general election and secured around 14 per cent of the vote, finishing third behind Labour and the Conservatives.
But its performance was much stronger in subsequent polling.
By June 2025, Reform had established itself as a serious competitor for voters who had previously supported the Conservatives, while also making inroads among some Labour supporters.
Ipsos found that Reform retained 95 per cent of its 2024 voters, compared with only 48 per cent of Conservative voters and 54 per cent of Labour voters being retained by their respective parties. More than one-third of people who voted Conservative in 2024 said they would now vote Reform.
That movement was particularly significant because it suggested that Reform’s support was not simply coming from people who had already abandoned the political system.
Farage’s party was attracting voters from the Conservatives while also making gains among people who had previously voted Labour.
The result was a political squeeze that threatened both established parties, albeit for different reasons.
A nightmare for the Conservatives
For the Conservatives, Reform’s rise presented an especially difficult problem.
The party had suffered its worst general-election result in modern history in 2024 and was already struggling to redefine itself under Badenoch.
Instead of rebuilding its support quickly, the Conservatives found themselves competing with Reform for many of the same voters.
The Ipsos figures showed the scale of the challenge.
The Conservatives were on just 15 per cent, their lowest-ever score with Ipsos. Reform, meanwhile, had reached 34 per cent.
This created a strategic dilemma.
The Conservatives could attempt to move closer to Reform on issues such as immigration, taxation, energy and national sovereignty.
But doing so risked allowing Farage to set the political agenda.
Alternatively, the Conservatives could attempt to occupy a more moderate position and distinguish themselves from Reform.
That risked losing further voters who wanted a tougher alternative to Labour.
Farage therefore presented the Conservatives with a problem that could not easily be solved by changing a few policies.
Labour’s warning signs
The poll was also deeply uncomfortable for Labour.
Starmer had won a huge Commons majority less than a year earlier, yet his party was now polling at just 25 per cent with Ipsos.
That did not mean Labour was automatically destined to lose a future election. Polling conducted several years or even months before an election cannot simply be converted into a forecast of parliamentary seats.
But it did demonstrate a sharp change in public opinion.
Ipsos reported that 73 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with Starmer’s performance, while 76 per cent were dissatisfied with the government’s performance.
For Labour, the challenge was therefore not simply Reform.
The government was also facing concerns over taxation, public services, the economy, immigration and the cost of living.
Reform was attempting to turn those frustrations into a broader argument that the political establishment had failed.
Farage’s political opportunity
The figures strengthened Farage’s claim that Reform was becoming more than a protest party.
He had spent years arguing that the Conservative Party had failed to deliver on Brexit and had failed to address concerns about immigration.
Now Reform was benefiting from dissatisfaction with both major parties.
Farage’s political strategy has consistently focused on issues where he believes there is a gap between public concern and government policy.
Immigration has been at the centre of that strategy.
But by 2025 Reform was also campaigning on energy prices, taxation, welfare and public spending.
In May, Farage announced proposals including raising the income-tax personal allowance, reversing restrictions on winter fuel payments and scrapping the two-child benefit cap.
The proposals were designed to broaden Reform’s appeal beyond its traditional focus on immigration.
They also triggered fierce criticism.
Starmer accused Farage of promoting economically reckless policies and compared the potential consequences to the turmoil surrounding Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-budget. Reform rejected that criticism and argued that its programme was designed to help working families.
The economic argument was therefore becoming just as important as the political one.
The battle for working-class voters
One of the most significant developments in Reform’s rise was its growing appeal among working-class voters.
Ipsos found Reform’s strongest support among social classes C2DE, at 53 per cent, while the party also performed particularly strongly among non-graduates and voters aged 50 and above.
That created a potentially serious problem for Labour.
For generations, Labour had depended heavily on working-class communities across northern and Midlands constituencies.
The Conservatives had also relied on many of those voters after their breakthrough in traditionally Labour areas in 2019.
Reform was now attempting to build a coalition from both groups.
Its message was deliberately simple: reduce immigration, cut taxes, lower energy costs and challenge what Farage describes as an entrenched political establishment.
Whether that coalition could remain together over the long term was another question.
But in June 2025, the polling demonstrated that the strategy was gaining attention.
Farage versus Starmer
Despite Reform’s lead in voting intention, the picture was more complicated when voters were asked about individual leaders.
Ipsos found that Starmer remained ahead of Farage when people were asked who would make the better prime minister, although the margin was narrowing. Starmer was preferred by 32 per cent compared with 26 per cent for Farage.
That distinction mattered.
A party can lead a voting-intention poll without its leader being the public’s preferred choice for prime minister.
It suggested that some voters were attracted to Reform’s policies or dissatisfied with Labour without necessarily being convinced that Farage should become prime minister.
For Labour, however, the narrowing leadership gap represented another warning.
The traditional advantage enjoyed by the governing party’s leader was no longer overwhelming.
Could Reform maintain the momentum?
The biggest question surrounding the June poll was whether Reform’s surge represented a temporary protest vote or the beginning of a longer-term realignment.
Political history offers plenty of examples of parties enjoying dramatic polling rises without ultimately translating that support into government.
Reform therefore still faced major obstacles.
The party had relatively limited parliamentary representation.
It had fewer experienced MPs than Labour or the Conservatives and was still developing its national organisation.
It also faced questions about the cost and practicality of some of its policies.
At the same time, the Conservative Party remained capable of rebuilding, while Labour had a large parliamentary majority and significant institutional advantages.
Polling should therefore be treated as a snapshot rather than a prediction.
The significance of the June figures was not that they guaranteed a Reform victory.
It was that they showed how dramatically voter loyalties had already changed.
A three-way political contest
Britain’s traditional two-party system had increasingly become more complicated.
The Liberal Democrats remained an important force in many constituencies, while the Greens were also competing for voters from Labour and the Conservatives.
Yet Reform’s rise was particularly significant because it was directly challenging the Conservatives on the right while simultaneously attracting some Labour voters.
The result was a political battlefield in which all three major Westminster parties faced different threats.
Labour had to prevent voters moving towards Reform without alienating its existing coalition.
The Conservatives had to rebuild while preventing Reform from absorbing its traditional base.
Reform had to demonstrate that it could convert protest and dissatisfaction into durable support.
The political shockwave
The June 2025 Ipsos poll was therefore more than another set of voting-intention figures.
Reform’s 34 per cent represented the highest share Ipsos had recorded for the party, while Labour’s 25 per cent and the Conservatives’ 15 per cent illustrated the scale of the disruption.
For Farage, the result reinforced his long-running argument that British politics was undergoing a major transformation.
For Labour, it was a warning that winning a large Commons majority did not guarantee continued voter loyalty.
And for the Conservatives, the numbers demonstrated how difficult the fight for the political right had become.
The most important point was that Reform’s rise had moved the party into territory that would have seemed highly unlikely only a few years earlier.
Whether that support could be sustained was uncertain.
But by June 2025, one fact was difficult to ignore: Nigel Farage and Reform UK were no longer simply disrupting Britain’s political conversation.
They had become one of its central forces.