But the Clacton MP, who was leading the polls 12 months ago, claimed the pollster was understating Reform’s support across the country.

Mr Farage hit out at the latest research, saying: “This is totally dishonest polling by a Tory donor who isn’t even a member of the British Polling Council.

“He had us at 21 per cent in May and we achieved 28 per cent – his polling has been proven as bogus time and time again.”

After a series of polls pushing the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK, Tory insiders told GB News they remain hopeful a comeback is on the cards following the party’s historic battering at the ballot box in 2024.

The new survey, revealed by the Daily Mail, put Labour on 31 per cent, the Tories on 26 per cent and Reform UK trailing behind on 18 per cent.

While Mr Farage cast doubt on the accuracy of the research, other polls have shown Mrs Badenoch pulling ahead of Reform UK more frequently.

Last week, research by the pollsters at YouGov, which was shared with The Times, forecast Labour would win 26 per cent of the vote if a contest were held today.

Just two points behind, the Tories were predicted to receive the backing of almost one in four voters (24 per cent), while Reform UK sat on 21 per cent.

The gap between the right-wing parties had grown since YouGov’s polling from the week before, with Mrs Badenoch now pulling three points ahead of the Clacton MP.

The boost to the Tory Party is fresh off some well-received performances from Mrs Badenoch, from Prime Minister’s Questions to her persistent grilling of Chancellor John Healey over the despatch box last month.

Since 2024, the North West Essex MP has overseen her party averaging around 19 per cent, and has now returned to the level of support Rishi Sunak left behind when he stepped down as leader.

Speaking to journalists about the “Badenoch bounce” last week, Mr Farage claimed support for his party was averaging four points higher than that for the Tories.

He said: “What I will tell you is this: the jiggery-pokery that is going on with polling is utterly astonishing. And if you believe the polls you’ve seen this week, you’re not understanding what’s going on out there.

“On the raw data, we’re four points higher, and the Conservatives are only four points lower. That’s the reality.”

Mr Farage also said the research formed part of a push from the “Westminster Establishment” to whip up a two-horse race between Labour and the Tories at the next election.

Reform UK reached a peak of 31 per cent in the poll-of-polls in September 2025, with Labour down on 20 per cent and the Tories dropping to 17 per cent.

A source close to Lord Ashcroft brushed off the claim, according to the Daily Mail, insisting the pollster’s prediction for the May election was a “red herring” due to questioning centring on general elections.

Lord Ashcroft said: “Kemi Badenoch continues to make an impression, with voters saying she seems strong, direct, principled and articulate, with more common sense and ‘better energy’ than her recent predecessors.”

Nigel Farage Fumes Over ‘Bogus’ and ‘Dishonest’ Poll as Labour Builds a Thirteen-Point Lead Over Reform UK

A fresh political opinion poll has sparked a furious reaction from Nigel Farage after it suggested that the Labour Party has established a commanding thirteen-point lead over Reform UK. The findings have dealt a significant blow to Farage’s political ambitions, placing his party in third position behind both Labour and the Conservatives. However, the Reform UK leader has strongly rejected the results, describing the research as “bogus” and “totally dishonest”.

The controversial survey, conducted by Lord Ashcroft and revealed by the Daily Mail, puts Labour on 31 per cent, the Conservative Party on 26 per cent and Reform UK on just 18 per cent. If these figures accurately reflected the political mood across Britain, they would represent a considerable setback for Farage, whose party had previously enjoyed a period of impressive popularity in national opinion polls.

For a politician who has repeatedly presented Reform UK as the main challenger to Britain’s established political parties, the latest figures raise uncomfortable questions about the party’s momentum and its ability to maintain its growing influence.

Farage was quick to challenge the credibility of the research. Taking aim at Lord Ashcroft, a former Conservative Party deputy chairman and prominent political donor, he questioned both the pollster’s political connections and his professional credibility.

“This is totally dishonest polling by a Tory donor who isn’t even a member of the British Polling Council,” Farage argued. He also pointed to previous polling figures, claiming that Ashcroft had placed Reform UK at 21 per cent in May, while the party subsequently achieved approximately 28 per cent in the local elections.

Farage insisted that the pollster’s research had repeatedly underestimated his party’s popularity and suggested that the latest figures were another example of misleading political analysis.

Nevertheless, the controversy goes beyond a disagreement over individual polling figures. It highlights the growing tension between Reform UK and Britain’s political establishment, as well as the importance of opinion polls in shaping public perceptions ahead of the next general election.

Labour’s Growing Advantage Raises Questions for Reform UK

Labour’s reported 31 per cent support represents a substantial lead over Reform UK, particularly given the political difficulties that have surrounded the government in recent months.

The party has faced criticism over economic pressures, public services, taxation and the cost of living. Despite these challenges, the latest survey suggests that Labour may still be capable of attracting a larger proportion of voters than its political opponents.

For Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his colleagues, the figures could provide an encouraging indication that the government has an opportunity to rebuild public confidence.

However, Labour should not interpret one favourable survey as proof that its political difficulties have disappeared. Opinion polls can change considerably depending on current events, government decisions, leadership performances and the issues dominating public debate.

The Conservative Party’s position is also particularly noteworthy. With 26 per cent support, Kemi Badenoch’s party appears to have moved ahead of Reform UK, suggesting that some voters who previously considered supporting Farage may be reconsidering their political choices.

This development could become especially important because the Conservatives and Reform UK are competing for a similar section of the electorate.

Both parties have criticised the current government’s approach to immigration, taxation and economic management. Yet they are also competing to convince voters that they represent the most credible alternative to Labour.

If the Conservatives continue to improve their polling position, Farage could find himself facing a more serious challenge from Badenoch than he originally anticipated.

Lord Ashcroft Defends His Polling Record

The dispute has also placed Lord Ashcroft at the centre of an increasingly heated political debate.

Ashcroft is a well-known Conservative donor and former deputy chairman of the party. His political background has provided Farage with an opportunity to question whether the latest research can be considered sufficiently independent.

However, political donations and professional polling methodology are two separate matters. A pollster’s political associations may reasonably attract scrutiny, but they do not automatically establish that a survey is inaccurate or deliberately misleading.

The reliability of an opinion poll depends on several factors, including the sample size, the selection of respondents, demographic weighting, the wording of questions and the statistical methods used to interpret the results.

Ashcroft has also pushed back against the criticism, pointing out that Farage did not appear to object when previous surveys placed Reform UK ahead of its competitors.

That response raises an important question: should politicians accept polling results only when those results support their political arguments?

For any political party, consistency is essential when discussing public opinion. Celebrating favourable research while dismissing unfavourable findings can undermine the credibility of political leaders and create confusion among voters.

The disagreement also highlights the need for greater public understanding of how political surveys are conducted.

The Problem With Comparing Different Election Results

One of Farage’s central arguments concerns the difference between the 21 per cent figure reported in an earlier Ashcroft survey and Reform UK’s performance in the local elections.

At first glance, the comparison may appear convincing. If a party receives approximately 28 per cent of the vote in one electoral contest, it might seem reasonable to question why a poll places its support considerably lower.

However, the comparison requires additional context.

A general election voting-intention poll and a local election result are not necessarily measuring the same thing. Local elections involve different candidates, local issues, turnout patterns and campaign conditions.

Furthermore, a national equivalent vote share calculated from local election results is an estimate of how parties might perform nationally, rather than a direct prediction of the outcome of a general election.

Consequently, comparing these figures as if they were identical measurements can produce a misleading impression.

A fact-check published following Farage’s comments described his argument as misleading, noting that the polling figures were broadly genuine but that the comparison between the two electoral measurements was not methodologically sound.

This does not mean that Ashcroft’s research is automatically correct. Like every political survey, it should be examined carefully and compared with other independent research.

However, challenging a poll requires more than pointing to a different election result. A convincing criticism should identify specific methodological weaknesses and explain how those weaknesses might have affected the findings.

Reform UK Faces a Difficult Political Challenge

Beyond the argument over polling methodology, the latest figures raise wider questions about Reform UK’s political strategy.

Farage has built much of his political reputation on challenging established parties and presenting himself as a voice for voters who feel ignored by Westminster.

His approach has attracted support from people concerned about immigration, national identity, public spending and dissatisfaction with traditional political leadership.

For a period, Reform UK appeared capable of transforming the British political landscape by challenging both Labour and the Conservatives.

However, maintaining political momentum is considerably more difficult than building an initial wave of public enthusiasm.

A party seeking to become a serious governing alternative must demonstrate that it has credible policies, experienced candidates and the organisational capacity to manage the responsibilities of government.

Reform UK has also faced questions surrounding party discipline, candidate selection and controversies involving senior figures and supporters. Such issues can become increasingly damaging when a party attempts to attract voters beyond its traditional support base.

Farage therefore faces a delicate balancing act. He must preserve the anti-establishment message that helped make Reform UK popular while demonstrating that his party is capable of delivering practical solutions to Britain’s problems.

If he focuses too heavily on attacking pollsters and political opponents, he risks diverting attention from the issues that matter most to ordinary voters.

Can Kemi Badenoch Capitalise on Reform’s Difficulties?

The Conservative Party’s apparent recovery could prove to be one of the most significant developments in the latest survey.

After suffering a historic defeat in the 2024 general election, the Conservatives have been attempting to rebuild their reputation and reconnect with voters.

Under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, the party has sought to present itself as a credible opposition force capable of challenging Labour on economic policy, public services and national security.

The latest Ashcroft figures suggest that this strategy may be gaining some traction.

For Badenoch, overtaking Reform UK would represent an important political achievement. It would strengthen her argument that the Conservatives, rather than Farage’s party, remain the most credible alternative to Labour.

Nevertheless, a single survey cannot guarantee a lasting Conservative recovery. The party must still convince voters that it has learned from its previous failures and can offer a convincing vision for Britain’s future.

Meanwhile, Reform UK will be determined to prevent the Conservatives from regaining control of the right-wing political landscape.

This competition could become one of the defining features of British politics in the coming months.

What Does This Mean for the Next General Election?

Ultimately, the latest polling controversy demonstrates how unpredictable British politics has become.

Labour may currently enjoy a significant advantage in this particular survey, but the political situation remains fluid. Economic developments, government performance, international events and leadership controversies could all influence voting intentions.

For Farage, the challenge is not simply to prove that one poll is wrong. It is to demonstrate that Reform UK has a sustainable political future and can attract enough support to compete seriously for power.

His criticism of Lord Ashcroft may resonate with loyal Reform supporters who already distrust established political institutions. However, undecided voters are likely to be more interested in whether the party can address everyday concerns such as household bills, immigration, healthcare, housing and economic growth.

Similarly, Labour cannot afford to become complacent simply because one survey places it thirteen points ahead of Reform UK. A polling lead is not an election victory, and public confidence can disappear quickly when governments fail to deliver on their promises.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, will see the figures as an opportunity to rebuild their position and challenge Farage for the support of right-leaning voters.

In the end, the real test will come when voters enter polling stations, rather than when politicians react to surveys.

Farage may dismiss the latest findings as dishonest, while Lord Ashcroft stands by his research. But the disagreement has exposed a deeper political reality: Reform UK is facing increasing competition at a time when its leader is attempting to turn a protest movement into a credible national political force.

Whether the latest poll represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a more substantial decline remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the battle for Britain’s political future is becoming increasingly competitive, and neither Farage nor his opponents can afford to underestimate the challenges ahead.