Nigel Farage could miss out on dozens of seats across the country at the next general election due to anti-Reform tactical voting, according to new research.

The survey commissioned by Electoral Calculus also found anti-Reform sentiment had grown over the last 12 months – as the right-wing party faces scandals on multiple fronts.

It found 50% of Labour supporters in areas facing a two-way battle between Tories and Reform would be willing to hold their nose to vote Conservative and keep Mr Farage’s candidates out of power.

This is an increase of 12% since 2025 when Electoral Calculus last asked voters their intentions.

Researchers also found almost all Green voters would lend their support to Labour to defeat Reform if their constituency was a two-horse fight. But fewer than half of Reform supporters would vote Tory in an attempt to inflict defeat on Labour.

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “As Labour under Burnham rebuilds its base, left-of-centre voters are surprisingly willing to lend their votes to whomever can stop Reform, even if that means Labour supporters voting Conservative.

“Anti-reform tactical voting has grown over the past year and could cost Reform dozens of seats because the right is divided.”

The findings are based on a survey of over 10,000 voters from pollsters Find Out Now and show Reform could secure 127 seats at the next election on 22% of the vote share.

But with tactical voting, the number of seats Reform could win may fall by 44 to just 83.

Meanwhile Andy Burnham’s Labour would win an extra 35 seats under tactical voting with 287 in total – but still short of the 326 seats needed to form a majority in the House of Commons.

The research also contains a warning for Mr Burnham, who promised at last month’s Labour conference to fight the next general election on a pledge to change the UK’s voting system.

Before becoming Prime Minister he supported moves towards a proportional representation (PR) model.

But Electoral Calculus found PR would not benefit Labour under the current circumstances, with the party dropping to 23% in the polls to tie with Reform for the top spot.

The research adds: “We see that Labour performs best under FPTP [first-past-the-post] with tactical voting at 27pc, keeping a lead over Reform on 22% and the Conservatives on 19%.

“Under this system, tactical voting pushes both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens below 10%, while Restore sits on 8%.”

Mr Baxter added: “Interestingly, the first-past-the-post system, plus tactical voting, helps left-of-centre parties much more than proportional representation, which could put Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe into Downing Street.”

Tyron Surmon, Head of Research of Find Out Now, said: “At the peak of Reform’s polling last summer, there was deep concern that despite only having a third of the vote, this would be enough for them to get a majority in Parliament.

“While this reawakened interest in changing the electoral system, our polling shows that such proposals are a double-edged sword. Thanks to a right-wing split between Reform and the Conservatives, and anti-Reform tactical voting, it may actually be Labour who benefits most from our current system. And any move away from it could be to their peril.”

Nigel Farage Could Miss Out on Dozens of Seats Due to Anti-Reform Tactical Voting at Next Election

Nigel Farage and Reform UK could face a significant challenge at the next general election as tactical voting emerges as an important issue in Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape. Although Reform has attracted attention with its promises to change immigration policy, reduce government spending and challenge the established political parties, the possibility of coordinated voting among its opponents could complicate the party’s efforts to translate public support into parliamentary seats.

The debate highlights a fundamental feature of Britain’s electoral system: winning votes nationally does not necessarily guarantee winning constituencies. Under the first-past-the-post system, the candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat, regardless of whether they receive an overall majority. This means that relatively small changes in voting behaviour can have significant consequences in closely contested constituencies.

For Farage, the challenge is not simply to persuade more people to support Reform UK. The party must also navigate a political environment in which voters who disagree with its policies may decide to support another candidate specifically to prevent a Reform candidate from winning.

The Growing Importance of Tactical Voting

Tactical voting occurs when people choose a candidate who is not their first preference because they believe that candidate has a better chance of defeating someone they strongly oppose.

In British elections, this behaviour can involve supporters of Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens or other parties making strategic decisions based on the circumstances in their constituency.

For example, a voter who normally supports one party might choose a different candidate if polling suggests that the alternative is the main challenger to Reform UK locally.

The same principle can operate in the opposite direction. Reform supporters who want to prevent a Labour or Conservative victory may also decide to back the candidate they believe has the strongest local position.

The effect depends on constituency-level voting patterns, candidate popularity and the willingness of supporters to change their usual voting behaviour.

Consequently, national polling figures alone cannot establish how many seats a party might gain or lose because of tactical voting.

Nevertheless, the possibility has become an important part of the discussion surrounding Reform UK’s electoral prospects.

Why Constituency Results Matter More Than National Headlines

Reform UK has sought to position itself as an alternative to Britain’s established political parties. Its appeal has been associated with concerns about immigration, public services, taxation, economic performance and dissatisfaction with Westminster politics.

However, even a party with substantial national support can encounter difficulties if its votes are spread unevenly across the country.

A party may receive considerable support nationally but finish second in numerous constituencies, leaving it with fewer MPs than its overall vote share might suggest.

Conversely, a party with concentrated support in particular areas can win seats even without dominating the national vote.

This makes the geographical distribution of support crucial.

If opponents of Reform coordinate around a single challenger in constituencies where the contest is close, their combined votes could affect the outcome. If opposition votes remain divided among several candidates, the result could be different.

The size of any effect would depend on local circumstances rather than a single national trend.

It is therefore important to distinguish between the possibility of Reform losing individual contests through tactical voting and any specific claim that the party will miss out on dozens of seats.

Establishing the latter would require detailed constituency-level evidence and clearly stated assumptions.

Labour, the Conservatives and the Opposition Challenge

The potential for tactical voting also raises questions about the responses of Labour and the Conservative Party.

Both parties have their own supporters, policy priorities and electoral challenges. Their voters do not automatically share the same preferences, even when they oppose Reform UK.

Labour supporters may disagree with Conservative economic policies, while Conservative voters may be reluctant to support Labour candidates. Liberal Democrat and Green voters may also have distinct reasons for rejecting either established party.

Encouraging these groups to coordinate is therefore not straightforward.

Any tactical arrangement would require voters to decide whether preventing a particular candidate from winning is more important than supporting their preferred party.

Some may accept that compromise, while others may continue voting according to their established political beliefs.

Local campaigning could also influence the outcome. Constituency candidates with strong community relationships may attract support that differs from their party’s national standing.

These factors make tactical voting a complex electoral phenomenon rather than an automatic alliance against a single party.

Reform UK’s Strategy and Its Electoral Challenges

For Reform UK, the issue places additional emphasis on constituency organisation, candidate selection and local campaigning.

National political attention can help a party attract supporters, but constituency elections require candidates to communicate their policies and establish credibility with local voters.

Reform must also address questions about how its proposals would be implemented, how they would be funded and what effects they might have on different communities.

Immigration remains one of the issues associated with Farage’s political message. The party has also discussed public spending, taxation, economic growth and changes to government institutions.

Supporters argue that these subjects deserve a stronger challenge to the established political consensus. Critics question aspects of Reform’s proposals and raise concerns about their practical consequences.

These disagreements are part of the wider political debate that voters will consider when deciding how to vote.

The party’s ability to explain its policies, organise locally and respond to criticism will shape the campaign in individual constituencies.

At the same time, opponents may focus their efforts on areas where their candidates have a realistic opportunity to compete, rather than treating every constituency as equally important.

The Limitations of Tactical Voting Campaigns

Although tactical voting can influence election results, it is not guaranteed to work.

Polling data can be uncertain, particularly when it is used to estimate support in individual constituencies. National surveys may not accurately capture local variations, and voting intentions can change during a campaign.

Furthermore, voters do not always follow tactical recommendations.

A person may prefer to support a smaller party even if its candidate has little chance of winning locally. Another voter may reject a tactical recommendation because of disagreements with the suggested candidate’s policies.

The presence of several competitive parties can also make it difficult to identify a single challenger.

In some constituencies, the main contest may be between Reform and Labour. In others, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, national parties or independent candidates may be central to the race.

Any credible assessment must therefore examine local evidence rather than assume that opposition to Reform automatically translates into votes for one particular party.

The distinction matters because claims about dozens of potentially affected seats can attract attention without necessarily demonstrating what would happen under different voting scenarios.

What Voters Will Need to Consider

As the next general election approaches, voters will face decisions about both national policy and local representation.

Those considering tactical voting will need to assess constituency polling, the previous electoral result, the strength of individual candidates and the reliability of the available evidence.

They will also need to decide how much weight to give strategic considerations compared with their own policy preferences.

For some voters, preventing a particular party from winning may be a priority. Others may believe that expressing their genuine political preference is more important, even if their chosen candidate has a smaller chance of victory.

Neither approach removes the underlying uncertainty of an election campaign.

The first-past-the-post system creates incentives for strategic voting, but it also leaves room for unexpected results when turnout, candidate appeal or political circumstances change.

A Wider Test for Britain’s Political System

The debate surrounding Farage and Reform UK reflects a broader question about representation in British politics.

When several parties compete for support, the relationship between votes and parliamentary seats can become difficult to interpret. Tactical voting can change constituency outcomes, while the concentration or fragmentation of support can produce results that differ from national polling patterns.

For Reform, the issue underlines the importance of building support across individual constituencies rather than relying solely on national attention.

For its opponents, it raises questions about whether voters with different political priorities can coordinate without compromising their own preferences.

Ultimately, claims that Reform UK could miss out on dozens of seats because of anti-Reform tactical voting should be assessed against specific polling evidence and constituency calculations, not treated as an established outcome.

The next general election will depend on how voters respond to the competing parties, their policies and their candidates.

What is clear is that tactical voting could form part of that contest, adding another layer of complexity to an already competitive political environment and ensuring that the distribution of votes across Britain’s constituencies remains central to the debate.

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