Nigel Farage has been a powerful force on the Right of politics (Image: Victoria Jones/Shutterstock)

I first met Kemi Badenoch in Manchester. It was 10pm at a drinks party, the night before her big conference speech last year. Although the room was dark I saw her expression change when I told her about my previous political trip to the city – Labour’s 2006 conference. It was a crazy four days for me writing the official blog, and more. I was even on stage with Tony Blair when he gave his final speech as leader. Back then I supported Blair and today I’m a Conservative donor – that’s an obvious move to me. The world has changed but we still need common sense and strong leadership.

I wasn’t always Kemi’s biggest fan. But when the Tory leadership race came down to her and Robert Jenrick, I was willing her over the line. When she spoke so honestly about our problems, I put my money where my mouth was and wrote a cheque. So when I say my money is on Kemi to see off Nigel Farage I really mean it.

I do have a lot of respect for what Reform UK has achieved. Richard Tice is an under-appreciated force in politics. What he and Farage have done so quickly is unique in British history. Twelve months ago they led the polls by a staggering margin, ahead of the Tories by between eight and 17 points!

No wonder they got cocky. They talked about the death of the Conservative Party. They even started calling Robert Jenrick the Shadow Chancellor. But as a financial markets trader and fund manager, I know that people getting too sure of themselves is a problem. And things can change bloody quickly.

Kemi Badenoch has steadied the Tory ship and voters see she does her homework, writes Andy Preston (Image: Stefan Rousseau/Press Association)

Now YouGov, More in Common and Find Out Now all have the Conservatives ahead of Reform. While two of those leads are only by a point it’s still a huge turnaround. And although the polls are close, if you ask people to choose between Kemi and Nigel as PM it’s a different story. In that poll, Kemi flattens him by 43-15. Even one in five people who voted Reform in 2024 prefer her.

Reform are still in the race and they’ve got a wad of cash to throw at the problem. It can buy them a lot of leaflets and Facebook ads. But it’s harder to buy back the feeling that you’re the next big thing. Their rapid ascent was driven by the excitement of something new. Much of that has worn off. If the polls keep sliding, many who got swept up in the excitement will drift away. That’s how a bad run in the polls can turn into a death spiral.

When the Tories under Kemi slumped to just 16% in the polls, a handful jumped ship for Reform, but the party held together. It’s Kemi’s ability to speak candidly that her party and the public loves. Of course Farage is a master of that too, but Kemi also has an excellent eye for detail. Voters can see that she stays up and does her homework – while others are in the pub.

Take Labour’s so-called jobs tax. That stupid move by Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer made it more expensive to hire people just when jobs were becoming scarce – it did huge harm, especially to our youngsters who need jobs. So she’s pledged to halve the tax employers pay for workers aged 21 to 24. That could make all the difference to a small business wondering whether they can hire someone new or even keep people on.

Kemi understands that if we want more money for the NHS and defence, then we need business to grow. That means cutting the costs that hinder it. Tony Blair got this too and his very first tax intervention was to reduce the taxes companies pay.

Blair won three elections because he knew how to get a hearing from people who’d never voted Labour. He’d go to places like Hartlepool and Middlesbrough and talk about the things they cared about. I am convinced Kemi will more than match this. If the Tories aren’t ahead of Reform in all the main polls in May, I’ll come back to this column, admit I got it wrong and donate £250 to Reform. But my money is staying on Kemi to win this fight.

Nigel Farage and Richard Tice Got Cocky – There’s Only One Way This Will End

Nigel Farage and Richard Tice have become increasingly confident about Reform UK’s political prospects, but their growing ambitions could create serious problems for the party as Britain’s political landscape continues to change. What began as a movement promising to challenge the traditional political establishment has developed into a significant force on the British right. However, political confidence can quickly become a liability when leadership ambitions, internal disagreements and competition for influence begin to dominate the agenda.

The latest criticism comes from political commentator Andy Preston, who argues that Farage and Tice have become too confident and that their approach could ultimately benefit their Conservative rivals. In his view, the contest for the future of the British right is far from settled, and Kemi Badenoch still has an opportunity to challenge Reform UK’s growing influence.

Farage has built his political career around challenging established political parties. His ability to attract media attention and communicate with dissatisfied voters has helped him establish a distinctive position in British politics. His involvement in the Brexit campaign transformed the national political debate and gave him a level of influence that few politicians outside government have achieved.

Richard Tice has also played an important role in developing Reform UK. As a businessman and political organiser, he has helped establish the party’s structure, attract candidates and promote its economic policies. His relationship with Farage has been central to the party’s development, although the two men have different public roles and political responsibilities.

However, Reform UK’s growing prominence has created a new challenge. The party is no longer simply campaigning against the Conservative and Labour establishments. It must now demonstrate that it can operate as a serious political organisation, manage internal disagreements and develop policies capable of addressing Britain’s economic and social problems.

This transition is not straightforward. Political movements often find it easier to criticise governments than to demonstrate how they would govern themselves. Once a party begins attracting substantial public attention, every statement made by its senior figures receives greater scrutiny.

One of the biggest questions concerns the relationship between Farage and Tice. Both have invested considerable time and effort in building Reform UK, and their political partnership has helped the party develop a recognisable identity. Nevertheless, any organisation that depends heavily on a small number of prominent personalities faces questions about leadership, accountability and long-term direction.

The Conservatives are watching these developments closely. Kemi Badenoch has been attempting to rebuild her party’s credibility after its electoral difficulties and present an alternative to Labour’s economic programme. She has emphasised lower taxation, stronger border controls, welfare reform and a smaller role for government in the economy.

Her challenge is to persuade voters who have moved towards Reform UK that the Conservatives can once again represent their political priorities. This requires more than strong speeches. The party must explain why voters should trust its promises after years of Conservative government.

Preston believes that Badenoch should not be underestimated. His argument is that Reform UK’s growing confidence could create an opportunity for the Conservatives if Farage and Tice fail to maintain discipline and focus. He has suggested that the battle for the political future of the British right is still open.

The issue is particularly important because Reform UK and the Conservatives compete for many of the same voters. Both parties have criticised Labour’s approach to immigration, taxation and public spending, although their policies and political strategies are not identical.

For Reform UK, the central challenge is turning public dissatisfaction into a sustainable political organisation. Farage has demonstrated an ability to attract attention and build support around major political issues, but governing a country requires a much broader range of skills and policies.

Economic credibility will be particularly important. British voters want to know how Reform would finance public services, reduce the national debt, improve productivity and support businesses. They also expect detailed explanations of how immigration policies, tax reforms and welfare changes would work in practice.

Richard Tice has frequently focused on economic issues, presenting himself as a businessman who understands the pressures facing British companies. He has argued that excessive taxation, complicated regulations and high energy costs are damaging the private sector. These arguments appeal to businesses concerned about Britain’s competitiveness, but the party must demonstrate how its proposed solutions would translate into measurable economic improvements.

Internal organisation presents another challenge. Reform UK has attracted candidates and supporters from different political backgrounds. Bringing together people with different priorities can create opportunities, but it can also generate disagreements over policy, leadership and the party’s public image.

Farage’s personal popularity has been an important part of Reform UK’s identity. However, a successful political organisation cannot depend entirely on one individual. It needs experienced representatives, effective local structures, credible policy development and a clear process for making decisions.

The Conservatives face similar difficulties. Badenoch must convince voters that her party has learned from its previous mistakes and can offer a credible alternative. She must also distinguish her leadership from the record of previous Conservative administrations, particularly on public services, immigration and economic management.

The possibility of competition between the two parties therefore creates an important strategic dilemma. If Reform UK and the Conservatives concentrate primarily on attacking one another, they risk weakening their collective position against Labour. At the same time, cooperation would require difficult decisions about leadership, policy priorities and political identity.

For voters, the most important question should be what each party actually proposes. Political personalities and dramatic headlines may attract attention, but they cannot replace detailed policies. Britain faces major challenges involving economic growth, housing, healthcare, immigration, defence and public finances. Any party seeking power must demonstrate how it intends to address them.

Ultimately, Farage and Tice have helped establish Reform UK as an important participant in Britain’s political debate. Their achievements have placed pressure on the Conservatives and forced established politicians to reconsider their strategies. However, the party’s future will depend on whether it can maintain public confidence, develop a credible programme and demonstrate that it is capable of governing.

In conclusion, the growing competition between Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Kemi Badenoch reflects a wider struggle over the future direction of British conservatism and the political right. Andy Preston’s warning that Farage and Tice may have become overconfident highlights the risks facing a party experiencing rapid political growth. Nevertheless, the eventual outcome will depend on policies, leadership, organisation and the confidence of voters. Reform UK cannot assume that its current position guarantees future success, just as the Conservatives cannot assume that dissatisfied voters will automatically return. Both parties will need to prove their credibility through clear commitments and practical solutions. Britain’s political future will ultimately be shaped not by confidence or provocative headlines, but by which political organisations can persuade the public that they have the answers to the country’s most pressing problems.