Andy Burnham said he was going to ‘grasp the nettle’ on several difficult issues facing the country ahead of his Party Conference speech earlier this week, making bold promises about pensions and future relationships with the EU. And, according to a new poll, the gamble appears to have paid off.
Conference Speech a winner for Andy Burnham, as Labour support increases
Research carried out by Opinium, immediately after Burnham’s bold address, surveyed over 1,500 British adults, asking who they would vote for if a General Election were to take place tomorrow. And, for the first time in almost two years, support for Labour reached the 30% mark.
The data, compared with responses from a week before, shows a two-percentage point increase for Labour, increasing their lead over Reform by a point. The gap between the pair has extended to five percentage points – and appears to be consistent with several other recent surveys.
Labour establish clear lead over Reform, as PM sets out bold agenda
Pollsters including Find Out Now, Survation, and BMG Research all have Labour leading Reform by four-to-six points. More In Common also have Reform down in third place, pipped to second by the Conservatives. However, this data appears to be an outlier as it stands.
The reversal in fortunes over the past 12 months has been stark, with Reform dipping from a peak of 35% to now ambling around the low-to-mid twenties. Labour were also on a similar trajectory, but have enjoyed a substantial uptick in support since Andy Burnham became PM.
Further numbers shared by Opinium this weekend show that Burnham’s speech itself was a winner, with those who thought it was good outnumbering those who thought it was bad, in a vote share of 37% to 17%. However, there is one issue which may still prove to be contentious.
The Prime Minister signalled his intention to remove the triple lock from the state pension. Long seen as a barrier to growth in other parts of the economy, critics have accused the former Manchester Mayor of risking financial security for the elderly – as reflected by the response from the 65+ demographic.
Labour Lead RISES in First Poll Since Andy Burnham’s Conference Speech
Labour has received a major boost in the latest opinion polling after the party increased its lead over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK following Andy Burnham’s highly anticipated speech at the Labour Party conference.
The first polling results following Burnham’s conference address suggest that his performance may have helped strengthen Labour’s position, providing fresh encouragement for a party that has spent much of the past year struggling to maintain public support.
The findings will be particularly uncomfortable for Reform UK, which had previously enjoyed a substantial advantage over Labour in several national surveys.
For months, Farage had presented Reform as Britain’s leading political alternative, arguing that traditional parties had lost the confidence of ordinary voters. However, Labour’s recent recovery suggests that the political landscape could be changing once again.
Burnham’s speech, which focused on economic reform, public services, pensions and a new National Care Service, appears to have given Labour an opportunity to reconnect with voters who had become increasingly frustrated with the party.
Labour Enjoys a Post-Conference Polling Boost
The latest polling figures provide encouraging news for Labour.
According to YouGov, Labour has reached 27 per cent, opening up a five-point lead over Reform UK, which stands at 22 per cent.
The Conservatives are on 23 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens are both on 11 per cent.
The results represent Labour’s strongest position with YouGov since early 2025 and suggest that the party has made significant progress since Burnham became Prime Minister.
More importantly, the survey was conducted after his conference speech, raising the possibility that his performance helped consolidate Labour’s growing support.
A separate survey by Opinium for The Observer also placed Labour ahead, with the party on 30 per cent, an increase of two points.
Reform was on 25 per cent, up one point.
Find Out Now produced another encouraging result for Labour, placing the party on 27 per cent, three points higher than the previous week.
Although the three surveys cannot prove that Burnham’s speech alone caused the improvement, they provide evidence that Labour’s recovery is continuing.
Andy Burnham’s Emotional Speech Appears to Have Connected With Voters
Burnham’s conference speech attracted considerable attention because of its emotional tone and ambitious political message.
Speaking in Liverpool, the Prime Minister attempted to present Labour as a party with a renewed sense of purpose.
Rather than concentrating exclusively on criticising the opposition, he outlined his vision for rebuilding Britain’s public services and improving the quality of life for ordinary families.
His speech included proposals for a National Care Service and changes to the state pension triple lock from 2030.
The proposals were presented as part of a wider effort to create a more sustainable system of social support.
Burnham also spoke about his personal experiences and the importance of protecting vulnerable people, helping give the speech a more emotional dimension.
The response from several political commentators was positive.
Some described it as one of the most impressive speeches delivered by a British political leader in recent years.
For Labour supporters, it represented a significant change from the political atmosphere surrounding the party during the final months of the previous leadership.
Reform UK Loses Its Grip on the Polling Lead
The latest figures will be particularly concerning for Nigel Farage.
Reform had spent months enjoying strong polling support, with the party regularly ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.
Farage successfully attracted voters who were dissatisfied with the government’s handling of immigration, taxation and the economy.
However, Reform’s political momentum has increasingly come under pressure.
The party has faced controversies involving donations, internal organisation and individuals associated with its political movement.
It has also experienced criticism over its ability to demonstrate that it is ready to govern the country.
The latest polling suggests that some voters may be reconsidering their support.
For Farage, the challenge is now to convince the public that Reform can offer a credible alternative rather than simply benefiting from dissatisfaction with established political parties.
The party cannot afford to assume that its earlier polling success will automatically translate into future electoral victories.
Burnham May Be Winning Back Disillusioned Labour Voters
One particularly interesting aspect of the polling concerns where Labour’s returning support may be coming from.
According to analysis published by The Independent, Labour has made progress among voters who previously abandoned the party under its former leadership.
Among former Labour voters, support reportedly increased from 49 per cent when Keir Starmer was in office to 63 per cent under Burnham.
The party has also experienced a notable improvement among younger voters.
Support among people aged between 18 and 24 reportedly increased from 14 per cent to 27 per cent.
These figures suggest that Burnham may be succeeding in reconnecting with sections of the electorate that had previously turned towards the Greens and other political parties.
There are also indications that Reform could be losing some voters to Labour.
However, polling evidence cannot always establish exactly why individuals change their voting intentions.
What is clear is that Labour’s improved performance has coincided with a significant change in the party’s leadership and political messaging.
The National Care Service Announcement Receives Positive Reaction
One of the most important elements of Burnham’s speech was his proposal for a new National Care Service.
The announcement was designed to address the long-standing problems affecting social care in England.
For years, the care system has faced serious challenges involving staffing shortages, funding pressures and increasing demand from an ageing population.
Burnham argued that Britain needs a more coordinated approach to care, ensuring that vulnerable people receive the support they need.
Research conducted by Survation immediately after the speech found that 55 per cent of respondents had seen or heard something about the address.
Among those who were aware of it, 55 per cent expressed a positive impression, compared with 23 per cent who reacted negatively.
The poll also found substantial support for the proposed changes to the pension triple lock when respondents were given an explanation of the policy.
These findings suggest that Burnham’s announcements were received more positively than Labour’s opponents might have expected.
However, the government will ultimately be judged on whether it can turn its proposals into practical improvements.
Nigel Farage Faces Growing Competition From Labour
For Farage, the changing polling picture presents a significant political challenge.
Reform’s success has depended heavily on its ability to convince voters that Labour and the Conservatives are incapable of delivering meaningful change.
But Burnham’s arrival has disrupted that argument.
His political approach appears to have attracted some voters who previously felt that Labour had moved too far away from its traditional priorities.
This creates a difficult situation for Reform.
Farage must continue appealing to voters concerned about immigration and national sovereignty while also responding to Labour’s attempts to regain support among working-class communities.
He also faces competition from Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, who have shown signs of recovering some support.
The political right is therefore becoming increasingly competitive, with Reform no longer enjoying the same level of dominance it previously experienced.
Labour Still Has Major Problems to Overcome
Despite the encouraging polling figures, Labour should not assume that its political recovery is guaranteed.
The party continues to face serious challenges involving the cost of living, public services, housing and economic growth.
Voters will want to see tangible improvements rather than simply hear ambitious promises.
Burnham’s conference speech may have created a positive impression, but maintaining that support will require consistent delivery.
The government’s forthcoming Budget will also provide an important test.
Any unpopular tax decisions or spending reductions could quickly damage the improved public mood.
Furthermore, Reform and the Conservatives will continue looking for opportunities to challenge Labour’s policies and question its economic credibility.
A five-point polling lead is encouraging, but it does not represent an overwhelming mandate.
Labour still needs to convince a substantial proportion of the electorate that it deserves their support.
Conclusion: Burnham’s Conference Speech Gives Labour Fresh Hope
The first polling results following Andy Burnham’s Labour conference speech have provided a significant boost for the governing party.
YouGov placed Labour on 27 per cent, five points ahead of Reform UK on 22 per cent, while separate surveys from Opinium and Find Out Now also showed Labour strengthening its position.
The findings suggest that Burnham’s leadership and his ambitious conference announcements may be helping the party reconnect with voters.
For Nigel Farage, the figures represent another warning that Reform’s previous polling dominance cannot be taken for granted.
The party must now demonstrate that it can offer more than political protest and convince voters that it is prepared to govern.
However, Labour’s recovery remains fragile. Economic pressures, public service problems and difficult government decisions could quickly change the political picture.
Nevertheless, Burnham appears to have achieved something Labour desperately needed: renewed public attention and a sense that the party may once again be capable of winning back voters.
After months of political difficulties, Labour finally has some encouraging numbers to celebrate.