Angela Rayner could be booted out of Parliament, a new poll suggests (Image: Getty)
Angela Rayner could lose her seat to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at the next general election, according to a bombshell poll.
The Deputy Prime Minister, who has held her Ashton-under-Lyne seat in the North-west of England since 2015, would be one of 238 Labour MPs to be booted out of Parliament, based on the data collected by Electoral Calculus on behalf of PLMR.
The astonishing poll, which is based on a sample size of more than 5,700 people, puts Reform on 24% of the vote, with Labour and Conservatives tied on 23%.
In terms of seats, Mr Farage’s insurgent force would win 175 seats, while the Tories would take 178 and Labour 174.
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Ms Rayner is not the only Labour heavyweight who could lose based on the Electoral Calculus poll.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting would lose Ilford North to the Tories, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would be ousted from Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley and replaced with a Reform MP.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds would lose his seat Stalybridge and Hyde to Reform as well.
Wes Streeting would also lose his seat, according to the poll (Image: Getty)
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll said: “Of course, there is a long, long way to go until the next election. History is littered with British governments who were unpopular in the initial years and who then turned it around. Labour knows very well what it needs to deliver in order to win again.
“This poll shows multiple challenges for the two established parties as Reform UK continues to show momentum and is picking up support from disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters in economically struggling areas.
“A three-way split of the vote is practically unheard of in British politics and points to shifts in the political make-up of the United Kingdom. The Conservative Party will be particularly concerned that they are not able to move ahead of Labour in the polls as the official opposition.
“If the Labour Government succeeds in its mission to grow the economy and inject optimism into the economic fortunes of households, I have no doubt they can turn things around – especially if the vote on the Right remains so divided.”
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our survey shows an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics. If there were a general election tomorrow, any of the three parties could come out on top but would be unlikely to have an overall majority. This represents a massive change in public opinion since the General Election just seven months ago.”
Why Angela Rayner Was Once Considered at Risk
The headline first circulated in February 2025, when an Electoral Calculus poll commissioned by PLMR suggested that Angela Rayner could lose Ashton-under-Lyne to Reform UK. The survey questioned more than 5,700 people and projected a highly fragmented Parliament, with Reform on 24 per cent nationally and Labour and the Conservatives both on 23 per cent. <Cite refs={[“turn385555search4″,”turn385555search0”]} />
At the time, the projection attracted attention because Rayner was one of Labour’s most senior figures. A possible defeat for a prominent politician would have symbolised the difficulties facing a government that had won a large parliamentary majority only months earlier.
But a constituency projection is not the same as an actual election result. It estimates how voters might behave under particular conditions, and the result can change as public opinion shifts.
More recent modelling has also produced a different picture. More in Common’s September 2026 MRP projected Rayner holding Ashton-under-Lyne by eight percentage points, illustrating how constituency forecasts can move over time. <Cite refs={[“turn385555search3”]} />
What the Numbers Say About Ashton-under-Lyne
Rayner has represented Ashton-under-Lyne since 2015, building a political career rooted in Greater Manchester. At the 2024 general election, she received 43.9 per cent of the vote, compared with 24.8 per cent for Reform UK. Her majority was 6,791 votes. <Cite refs={[“turn385555search1”]} />
PollCheck’s constituency model, based on a seven-poll average updated through September 2026, showed Labour on 35 per cent and Reform on 32.5 per cent in Ashton-under-Lyne. That put Labour 2.5 percentage points ahead in the projection, a considerably closer contest than the 2024 result. <Cite refs={[“turn385555search1”]} />
The difference between these estimates and the more favourable September MRP projection highlights the uncertainty involved. Polling organisations use different data, methods and assumptions, and constituency-level estimates can vary considerably.
The available figures suggest that Ashton-under-Lyne deserves attention as a potentially competitive seat. They do not establish that Rayner will lose it.
The Wider Implications for Labour
The political significance of the story extends beyond one constituency. Labour’s support has faced challenges in several areas where Reform has appealed to voters dissatisfied with established parties.
The 2026 local elections showed how difficult it can be for Labour to retain support across parts of northern England and other regions. However, local election results cannot be transferred directly into parliamentary predictions, because voters may behave differently in general elections and because the candidates and issues vary.
For Labour, the challenge is to demonstrate that its policies can improve living standards, strengthen public services and address concerns about immigration and economic opportunity. For Reform, the challenge is to turn wider support into consistent constituency-level victories.
Rayner’s seat illustrates the distinction between a political warning and a settled outcome. Polls can reveal vulnerabilities and changing public attitudes, but only an actual election can determine who represents Ashton-under-Lyne in Parliament.
The broader story is therefore one of electoral uncertainty rather than a confirmed defeat. Reform’s growing competitiveness in some Labour constituencies presents a challenge to the established parties, but the latest available projections do not all point to the same result for Angela Rayner.