Welsh residents are planning to break from generations of Labour loyalty (Image: Getty)
Sir Keir Starmer’s party’s traditional stronghold in south east Wales could pivot to support Reform UK instead, polling and residents have suggested. Caerphilly has been a safe Labour seat since 1918 but growing disillusionment with the Prime Minister has left some lifelong supporters looking elsewhere, with their switching allegiance lining up with recent polls showing Reform’s growing influence in the region. “I grew up in this town as a Labour supporter,” teacher Andrew O’Shea, 65, said. “They were the party for the working class but now they’ve lost themselves. Starmer is out of his depth.”
“I want somebody to take control of the borders,” he told The Sun. “Like thousands in this town, I’m going to protest-vote Reform because we’re tired of Labour getting it so wrong.” It comes after bombshell polls put Nigel Farage‘s right-wing party within touching distance of winning the largest number of seats at the 2026 Senedd election, with Labour trailing behind in third place.
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Reform candidate for Caerphilly Llyr Powell came from a family of Labour voters (Image: WalesOnline/Rob Browne)
A major, more concrete indicator of the changing political landscape in Wales could come in the form of the Caerphilly by-election results after residents head to the polls on October 23.
Even undecided voters appear reluctant to lend their vote to Mr Starmer’s party amid frustrations over immigration and the economy – a stark contrast to Labour’s historic prominence in Wales, having led every devolved government since 1999.
“Starmer needs to get his act together,” Gillian Champion, 64, who admitted she has yet to decide who to back in the upcoming vote, said. “They say they’ve got no money, but they’re giving money to people who come over on the boats.”
Reform’s local candidate Llyr Powell himself came from a Labour-voting household. “I’m the great-grandson and grandson of miners,” he said. “My mother was a nurse and voted Labour.”
But the Labour his forebearers backed without a thought “doesn’t resemble” the party standing today, the 30-year-old insisted. “Labour has abandoned its core supporters,” he said.
Reform’s opponents have attempted to stamp out support for the party by turning up the heat on its former Welsh leader’s links to Russia. Nathan Gill, who stood down in 2021, pleaded guilty to taking cash in return for making pro-Russian statements in the European parliament as far back as 2018 last month.
Mr Powell condemned his ex-boss and said he had no knowledge of his activities. “Reform has 250,000 members,” he added. “What you’re talking about is one individual. People should judge me for the person I am.”
Mr Farage’s party has yet to gain a lead on nationalist Welsh party Plaid Cymru in the polls, although YouGov findings published last month put Reform just one percentage point behind in the neck-and-neck race.
It’s a threat that could have repercussions on Labour’s wider UK hold in the next general election, as First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledged and attempted to combat at the party conference in late September.
“The polls are not looking good,” she told members in Liverpool. “People are angry. Disillusioned. Reform blames foreigners, Plaid blames Westminster. Divisive nationalism in different forms. Different poison, same bottle. Unlike the peddlers of easy answers, Welsh Labour doesn’t just talk, we deliver.”
Labour Facing Wipeout in Wales as Voters Fume ‘I’m Going for Reform’
Labour’s long-standing dominance of Welsh politics has come under serious pressure, with recent polling showing the party struggling to retain support as Reform UK and Plaid Cymru compete for voters across the country.
The political landscape in Wales has changed sharply since Labour’s historic strength was established. For decades, Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics, controlling the devolved government since the creation of the Senedd. But recent elections and opinion polls have demonstrated that the party can no longer take that position for granted.
The scale of the challenge became particularly clear during the 2026 Senedd election, when Labour suffered a major decline in support while Reform and Plaid Cymru emerged as the principal forces competing for first place.
Recent polling suggests Labour has recovered somewhat in Westminster voting intentions, but its position in Senedd polling remains substantially weaker than its traditional standing.
A dramatic change in Wales
For much of the modern period, Labour’s relationship with Wales has been unusually strong.
The party’s roots in former industrial communities, trade unions and working-class constituencies helped make it the natural political choice for millions of Welsh voters. Labour’s dominance was reflected both at Westminster and in the Senedd.
That political structure has now become considerably more fragmented.
Ahead of the 2026 Senedd election, YouGov polling showed Labour’s support falling dramatically, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru both gaining ground. Political Home reported in January that Welsh Labour figures were increasingly concerned that the party’s vote was being squeezed from both sides — by Plaid Cymru and the Greens on the left and Reform on the right.
The concern was not simply about losing a handful of seats. Labour figures were contemplating the possibility that the party could lose its historic position at the centre of Welsh government.
That possibility became a central feature of the election campaign.
Reform’s appeal
Reform UK has increasingly attempted to build support among voters who previously backed both the Conservatives and Labour.
The party’s campaign in Wales has focused heavily on issues including immigration, public services, taxation, national identity and dissatisfaction with the established political parties.
For some former Labour voters, the attraction of Reform has been connected to dissatisfaction with the UK Government rather than a straightforward ideological conversion.
Research by YouGov following the 2026 English local elections found that voters who switched from Labour were considerably more likely to move towards the Greens than Reform. Among 2024 Labour voters who subsequently voted in the 2026 English local elections, 22% chose the Greens and 6% chose Reform UK.
However, Wales has its own political dynamics.
The presence of Plaid Cymru creates a powerful alternative for voters seeking a party that combines left-of-centre policies with Welsh nationalism. Reform, meanwhile, has sought to attract voters who are dissatisfied with Labour’s approach to immigration and the UK Government’s record.
That means Labour faces pressure from competing political directions rather than a single challenger.
Voters expressing frustration
The phrase “I’m going for Reform” captures one part of the political mood described during the recent transformation, but it should not be treated as representative of every Welsh voter.
Focus-group research conducted by Lord Ashcroft ahead of the 2026 Senedd election found voters in Bridgend discussing their views of Welsh Labour and considering their options. The research also examined longer-standing Labour voters alongside people who had previously supported other parties.
Such qualitative evidence can provide insight into voters’ reasoning, but it does not measure the overall size of support in the way a representative opinion poll does.
The polling picture itself is more complicated than the headline suggests.
In September 2026, YouGov found that Labour’s Westminster voting intention in Wales had increased to 18%, up 10 percentage points from its previous poll in May. Reform’s support, meanwhile, had fallen by seven points to 19%. Plaid Cymru stood at 27%.
That represented a notable improvement for Labour compared with the immediate aftermath of the Senedd election.
But the same poll also showed the party retaining only 35% of its 2024 Welsh voters, illustrating the continuing difficulty Labour faces in rebuilding a stable electoral coalition.
The Senedd picture is different
The distinction between Westminster and Senedd voting intentions is crucial.
When YouGov asked voters about a Senedd election in September, Plaid Cymru was on 32%, Reform UK on 27% and Labour on 13%.
That is a very different picture from Westminster voting intentions, where Labour had recovered to 18%.
It demonstrates that Welsh voters can make different choices depending on the type of election.
The Senedd’s electoral system also changed for the 2026 election, with a larger parliament and a new voting system. Consequently, translating vote shares directly into comparisons with previous elections requires care.
Nevertheless, the figures demonstrate that Labour’s traditional position has weakened considerably.
Plaid Cymru’s challenge
Reform is not Labour’s only major challenger.
Plaid Cymru has also benefited from Labour’s difficulties, particularly among voters who want greater Welsh autonomy or independence.
Ahead of the May election, polling suggested a close contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform for the leading position. Byline Times reported that a YouGov survey conducted in April projected Plaid Cymru and Reform to be broadly level in terms of potential Senedd representation, while Labour’s projected vote share had fallen sharply compared with 2021.
The final election subsequently confirmed the transformation of the political landscape.
Instead of the familiar Labour-dominated model, Wales entered a more competitive multi-party era in which Plaid Cymru and Reform became central players.
That creates a particularly difficult strategic problem for Labour because its lost voters are not necessarily moving in the same direction.
Some are attracted by Reform.
Others are moving towards Plaid Cymru or the Greens.
Still others may simply be disengaging from Labour without becoming committed supporters of another party.
The impact of the UK Government
Another important factor is the relationship between Welsh politics and Westminster.
Labour’s performance in Wales cannot be separated completely from perceptions of the UK Government.
The 2026 local elections provided evidence that national political performance influenced voters’ decisions. YouGov found that almost a quarter of voters regarded the performance of the national government as a major reason for their vote, while Reform voters were particularly likely to say that their assessment of the UK Government influenced their choice.
This creates a challenge for Labour politicians in Wales.
They must campaign on Welsh issues while also carrying responsibility, in voters’ minds, for decisions made by the UK Labour Government.
That problem can be especially acute when voters are frustrated about living standards, public services, taxation or immigration.
Labour’s attempted recovery
The September Westminster polling provides evidence that Labour’s position is not fixed.
The 10-point increase recorded by YouGov following Andy Burnham’s move into Downing Street represented a significant change from the May figures. Reform’s decline over the same period meant the two parties were much closer in Westminster voting intention than immediately after the Senedd election.
ITV Cymru Wales similarly described the September figures as evidence of a potential “Burnham bounce” for Labour in Westminster voting intentions, while noting that Plaid Cymru remained ahead and Reform remained a significant force.
That distinction is important.
The data does not demonstrate that Labour has returned to its former dominance. Nor does it establish that Reform is destined to replace Labour as Wales’ principal political force.
Instead, it shows an electorate in considerable flux.
A new political era
The transformation in Wales is therefore larger than a simple Labour-versus-Reform contest.
Plaid Cymru remains a major force. Reform has established itself as a significant competitor. The Conservatives remain present, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats can also affect contests in particular areas.
For Labour, the central challenge is rebuilding a coalition that historically brought together working-class communities, trade union supporters, public-sector voters and a wide range of Welsh constituencies.
For Reform, the task is different: converting dissatisfaction and protest into durable support across Wales.
For Plaid Cymru, the opportunity lies in translating its renewed strength into long-term political influence.
The latest polling shows why claims of an imminent Labour “wipeout” should be treated carefully. Labour is clearly weaker than it has traditionally been in Wales, and its Senedd position remains difficult. Yet its Westminster support has recently improved, while Reform’s has fallen.
What the evidence does establish is that Welsh politics has entered a far more competitive period.
The old assumption that Labour would automatically dominate Welsh politics is no longer supported by recent election results or polling. Voters have demonstrated that they are willing to consider alternatives, and parties across the political spectrum are competing for support that was once much more predictable.
Whether a voter says “I’m going for Reform”, supports Plaid Cymru, remains loyal to Labour or chooses another party, the broader message from Wales is the same: political loyalties are becoming less fixed.
For Labour, that means rebuilding trust cannot simply depend on its historical relationship with Wales. It will have to compete for support in a political environment where voters have more alternatives and where dissatisfaction can quickly translate into electoral change.