Nigel Farage has secured his longed-for foothold in the Commons (Image: Getty)
There is now no doubt that Labour is rattled by the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party has gained a stark vision of what it will face if the insurgent party ever replaces the Conservatives as the official Opposition.
Both Mr Farage and deputy leader Richard Tice contributed at Prime Minister’s Questions – blasting the Government for stripping pensioners of winter fuel payments and urging Sir Keir to “stop funding Hamas”.
But the clearest sign that Labour sees Reform as a real threat came immediately after Tory leader Kemi Badenoch finished asking her round of questions.
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This is normally the moment a Labour MP will stand up to ask a friendly question and allow Sir Keir to take a potshot at the Tories.
But this time, the target was not Mrs Badenoch’s party but Mr Farage’s.
Labour MP John Slinger rose to his feet and claimed the Reform leader is “open to anything” when it comes to the future of the NHS.
In what must rank as one of the least difficult questions Sir Keir has ever faced, he was asked if he would confirm that under a Labour Government, the NHS would be “there for everyone” and that patients would not have to “worry about the bills”.
This is what political climate change looks like. Labour now feels the need to turn its fire on Reform.
A YouGov poll on voting intentions this week put Reform in first place (25%), ahead of Labour (24%) and the still-beleaguered Conservatives (21%).
Labour MPs are reported to have set up a new internal pressure group to take the fight to Reform. They know they are in Mr Farage’s sights.
Reform won 4.1million votes in the summer election and came second in 89 seats. It was runner-up to Labour in 60 constituencies.
Mr Farage and his colleagues are serious about building a movement that can deny both Labour and the Tories power – and Sir Keir’s party has woken up to this threat.
The Reform leader enjoys the attention. When he stood up in the Commons, he looked across at the Labour benches and said: “There appears to be some panic on that side of the House. I’m not surprised.”
He then raised the case of his 99-year-old constituent Jim O’Dwyer, who served as a rear gunner in Lancaster bombers during World War 2 and has lost his winter fuel allowance.
If Chancellor Rachel Reeves is forced to cut public spending and slash further entitlements, he will have plenty more examples in the coming years of people who are struggling as a result.
Mr Tice used his question to claim the United Nations Relief and Works Agency is “riddled with Hamas sympathisers”, declaring that the “British people do not want our aid being stolen by Hamas”.
Sir Keir flashed with irritation in his response, saying: “To be absolutely clear – and he knows this – we are not funding Hamas and we never will.”
There was more to come. Straight after PMQs, Mr Farage had secured an “urgent question” and forced the Government to defend its planned deal with Mauritius over the future of the Chagos Islands.
This is a taste of what could be to come if the party ever supplants the Conservatives as the official opposition. Tories will fear Reform is scoring points against the Government while their party is making headlines about whether it can afford to keep its central London headquarters.
Labour MPs and ministers are now having to spend time thinking about the bear traps Reform is laying in the Commons. The quintet of Reform MPs has well and truly gained a bridgehead, and they are plotting a democratic revolution.
The Conservatives need to adapt to this new reality. Former Commons leader Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has made the case for a pact between the parties, which he says would be “devastating for the socialists, wiping out its majority and paving the way for a truly Conservative coalition, a government that could do things as Trump is showing us it can be done”.
Moderate Tories who are appalled at how US president Donald Trump has transformed the once-genteel Republican party into a populist force will shudder at their party going through a similar metamorphosis. But both the Conservatives and Labour ignore the new kids on the block at their peril.
Labour Drops Biggest Clue Yet That It Is Feeling the Pressure From Nigel Farage and Reform UK
Labour has offered a revealing glimpse into the political challenges facing the government as Nigel Farage and Reform UK continue to compete for the support of voters across Britain. With immigration, living costs, public services and the future relationship with Europe dominating political debate, the contest between Labour and Reform is becoming increasingly important to the country’s political direction.
Yet the latest developments also suggest that Labour is trying to change the terms of the argument. Rather than allowing Reform to define the debate entirely around immigration and dissatisfaction with Westminster, the government under Prime Minister Andy Burnham is attempting to convince voters that it can deliver practical improvements to their everyday lives.
The question is whether that approach will be enough to keep voters on Labour’s side.
Labour’s growing concern about the next election
One of the clearest indications of Labour’s challenge emerged in a report published by The Guardian on October 10, 2026. The newspaper reported that Labour insiders were increasingly anxious about the government’s forthcoming budget and whether it would deliver enough to satisfy voters.
The report described concerns that modest measures to help households and businesses might not meet public expectations after Labour’s promises of change. Economic pressures, high borrowing costs and the consequences of international instability have complicated the government’s calculations.
Some party figures reportedly fear that voters will become impatient if their financial circumstances do not improve before the next general election. The government’s challenge is to demonstrate progress while operating within the limits of the public finances.
That concern matters in the context of Reform UK’s political strategy. Farage has built much of his appeal around the argument that established politicians have repeatedly failed to address problems that ordinary people experience directly.
When households struggle with bills, housing costs or access to public services, a government cannot rely indefinitely on explaining why change is difficult. It must also show what is improving and why its policies should be trusted.
However, concern inside a governing party does not automatically prove that it is frightened of a particular opponent. Labour has to manage economic conditions, public expectations and internal disagreements regardless of Reform’s performance. The political significance is that these difficulties give Farage opportunities to challenge the government’s record.
The latest polls offer a complicated picture
Recent voting-intention surveys demonstrate why neither Labour nor Reform can afford to assume that the political contest has been settled.
A Survation poll conducted between October 3 and October 5, 2026, among 1,974 UK adults placed Labour on 30 per cent, up one point from the firm’s previous survey. Reform UK stood at 24 per cent, also up one point, while the Conservatives were on 19 per cent. The Liberal Democrats received 9 per cent and the Greens 8 per cent. Survation reported a six-point Labour lead over Reform. Survation’s polling report.
A separate YouGov poll for The Times, reported on October 6, put Labour on 27 per cent and Reform on 22 per cent, with the Conservatives at 20 per cent. The findings suggested a stronger position for Labour following Burnham’s appearance at the party conference. The Times’ polling report.
These results are snapshots rather than forecasts of the next election. Polls use different methodologies and can produce different estimates, while public opinion may change as parties announce policies and respond to events.
Nevertheless, the figures show that both Labour and Reform remain significant competitors in a fragmented political landscape. Labour has reasons to focus on consolidating its support, while Reform has incentives to keep pressing its case that the established political order needs a fundamental change.
For Labour, the challenge is not merely to lead in a particular poll. It is to demonstrate that support can be sustained and translated into votes across constituencies when an election takes place.
Why Farage remains a difficult opponent
Farage’s political approach is built around a straightforward message: Britain needs a different direction, and established parties have not done enough to address public concerns.
Immigration remains one of his principal subjects. Reform has promised a tougher approach to irregular migration and small-boat crossings, arguing that the government must regain control of the country’s borders.
The party also attacks the established parties over taxation, government spending, energy costs and what it describes as wasteful bureaucracy. These themes allow Farage to connect a range of policy disagreements to a wider argument about trust in government.
Labour cannot answer that challenge simply by criticising Farage’s rhetoric. It must explain how its own policies will affect people’s lives, how much they will cost and what measurable outcomes voters should expect.
At the same time, Reform faces its own questions. Proposing stricter immigration controls is not the same as demonstrating how they would operate within the law. Promising lower taxes requires credible decisions about revenue and spending. Criticising public services does not, by itself, explain how those services would be improved.
Both parties therefore face a test of credibility, although their responsibilities differ. Labour must defend the record of a government in office; Reform must convince voters that its alternative programme is workable.
Brexit returns to the centre of the political argument
Another significant development is the renewed debate over Britain’s relationship with the European Union.
Burnham has said Britain should examine the available options for its future relationship with Europe, including the possibility of a closer arrangement. His comments have reopened a debate that remains politically sensitive, particularly in communities where support for Brexit was strong.
Farage responded sharply. At a Reform rally in Doncaster on October 1, he argued that Burnham’s position risked alienating voters who supported leaving the EU. He described the prime minister’s approach as a political mistake and said Reform would welcome a contest over the issue. The Independent’s report on Farage’s response.
The dispute presents Labour with a difficult balancing act. Some voters may welcome closer economic cooperation with Europe, while others believe that reopening the Brexit debate would disregard the result of the 2016 referendum.
Any proposal for a closer relationship would need to specify what it involved. Cooperation on trade, research or regulation is not identical to full EU membership, and different arrangements would have different economic and political implications.
For Farage, Brexit remains central to his political identity. Challenging any perceived move towards reversing it allows him to appeal to voters who regard leaving the EU as a democratic decision that should be respected.
For Labour, the issue raises a question about how to pursue economic opportunities without reigniting divisions that have shaped British politics for a decade.
The budget could become a defining test
The government’s forthcoming budget is likely to be one of the most important tests of its ability to convince voters that it understands their concerns.
The October 10 report in The Guardian highlighted internal anxiety about whether limited measures would be sufficient to demonstrate meaningful progress. The budget is expected to address economic pressures, including support for energy bills and small businesses, while the government attempts to maintain control of public spending.
The difficulty is that voters may judge the budget against expectations that go beyond any single announcement.
Households facing higher costs may want immediate relief. Businesses may be looking for stability and incentives to invest. Public services require funding, but higher expenditure must be reconciled with the government’s fiscal commitments.
If the budget offers only modest improvements, Labour may struggle to persuade some voters that it is delivering the change they expected. If it commits to expensive measures, the government could face questions about how they will be financed.
Farage will have an obvious opportunity to criticise the outcome, whatever the government decides. But Reform will also need to explain what it would do differently and how its alternative would be funded.
The political argument is therefore likely to centre not only on which party promises the most, but on which can make a convincing case that its proposals would work.
Labour’s strategy: show results rather than react to Reform
One risk for Labour is allowing every political development involving Farage to dictate its agenda. A government that appears to respond to every Reform announcement could find itself debating issues on terms set by its opponent.
Labour’s alternative is to focus on outcomes voters can recognise: improvements in household finances, more reliable public services, stronger economic growth and clear progress on immigration.
The party also needs to explain setbacks honestly. Voters may accept that governments face difficult circumstances, but repeated appeals for patience can become less persuasive if there is little evidence of improvement.
Burnham’s political approach, as reflected in recent reporting, has placed emphasis on communication and the idea that government should show it is trying to make people’s lives better. The challenge is turning that message into results that voters can see.
Reform, meanwhile, will seek to portray any gap between Labour’s promises and its performance as evidence that the established parties cannot deliver meaningful change.
That creates a contest in which both sides must be prepared for scrutiny. Labour’s record will be judged against its commitments, while Reform’s proposals will be assessed for their practicality, cost and likely effects.
Reform must also prove it can govern
Although Labour faces pressure, Farage’s party is not without its own difficulties.
Winning public attention and attracting voters are different from building an organisation capable of governing a complex country. Reform would need experienced candidates, detailed policies across government departments and clear explanations of how its promises would be implemented.
The party would also face the demands of parliamentary arithmetic. Even a strong national vote share does not automatically translate into a majority of seats under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Furthermore, voters may support Reform on immigration while disagreeing with its approach to taxation, public services or Britain’s international relationships. The party must demonstrate that it can appeal beyond its core supporters if it wants to turn its political profile into parliamentary power.
Labour will hope that detailed scrutiny of Reform’s proposals exposes uncertainties. Reform will argue that the government is using complexity as an excuse for failing to act. Ultimately, voters will have to assess both arguments.
A political warning, not proof of panic
Labour’s reported anxiety about the budget offers a useful insight into the pressures facing the government, but it should not be treated as definitive proof that Farage has already won the political argument.
The latest polls cited here show Labour ahead of Reform in the two surveys published during the first week of October, although earlier polling has produced different results. The broader picture remains fluid, and no survey can determine the outcome of a future election.
What the developments do demonstrate is that Labour cannot take public support for granted. Economic performance, the credibility of its policies and the government’s ability to deliver visible improvements will all influence how voters judge its record.
Farage, for his part, will attempt to turn dissatisfaction into a wider demand for political change. His success will depend on whether Reform can persuade voters not only that existing arrangements are failing, but that its own proposals provide a convincing alternative.
The next budget, the continuing debate over immigration and the renewed argument about Brexit will all offer opportunities for both sides to make their case.
Labour’s biggest challenge may therefore be less about appearing rattled by Nigel Farage and more about answering the questions that have helped Reform gain attention in the first place: whether people’s lives are improving, whether government promises can be trusted and whether the political system is delivering the results voters expect.
Those questions, rather than the language of political confrontation, are likely to shape the debate as Britain moves towards its next general election.