Sir Keir Starmer is facing record unpopularity (Image: Getty)
Labour has crashed to a devastating new low, according to a shocking new YouGov survey. The reputable pollster found that support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party now stands at just 17%, just one point ahead of the Green Party.
Reform is significantly ahead on 27%, up one point despite recent rows and difficult headlines. The Tories are tied with Labour on 17%, while the Lib Dems are just behind the pack on 15%. According to the Electoral Calculus prediction tool, if played out at a general election, this would result in a Reform majority of 60, with Nigel Farage leading 355 MPs into government.
Nigel Farage is still on course to enter Downing Street (Image: Getty)
By contrast, the second-largest party would be the Lib Dems, who would form the official opposition with 72 MPs.
Labour would be third with just 68 MPs, while the Tories would fall into sixth place behind the Green Party and the SNP.
Kemi Badenoch would hold on to her Essex seat, but would be joined by just 30 Tory colleagues on the green benches.
The SNP would win 45 seats and the Greens 41 MPs under their new leader Zack Polanski.
YouGov’s poll reveals that Labour’s 2024 voter coalition has now completely splintered, with 18% moving to the Greens, 13% going to the Lib Dems and 11% going to Reform.
Labour would win just 68 seats, according to the poll (Image: Electoral Calculus )
Labour MPs will also be terrified that their record low ratings in the polls comes before Rachel Reeves delivers her second Budget, which many believe will mean huge tax rises.
Last week, reports emerged that the Chancellor is looking at ditching her manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, sparking terror from fellow Cabinet ministers.
Reacting to the poll, Reform’s chairman, Dr David Bull, said it proves that the “old two-party system is dead”.
He added: “There is a seismic shift happening out there.
“Reform UK is offering a real alternative for Britain’s future.”
The latest polling is likely to intensify debate within Labour about how the party should respond to changing voter priorities. While individual opinion polls provide only a snapshot of public sentiment and cannot predict the outcome of a future General Election, they are closely watched by MPs, campaign strategists and party officials as indicators of political momentum.
For Sir Keir Starmer, the figures underline the challenge of maintaining support across a broad electoral coalition. Labour has sought to balance commitments on economic stability, public services and social policy while also responding to concerns over immigration, crime and the cost of living. Critics argue that this balancing act has left some voters uncertain about the party’s overall direction, while supporters maintain that governing inevitably requires difficult compromises.
Reform UK, meanwhile, has continued to present itself as an alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives. Party leader Nigel Farage has repeatedly argued that dissatisfaction with the established parties has created an opportunity for political realignment, focusing his campaign on issues including immigration, border security, taxation and institutional reform. Recent polling suggesting strong support for Reform has been welcomed by party figures as evidence that their message is resonating with a growing section of the electorate.
Conservative politicians are also likely to study the survey carefully. Although the poll places the party level with Labour, it also illustrates the continuing challenge of rebuilding support following the 2024 General Election. Party strategists face pressure to persuade former Conservative voters who have moved to Reform while also appealing to moderate voters in key marginal constituencies.
Political analysts caution against drawing firm conclusions from a single poll. Different polling companies use different methodologies, sample sizes and weighting systems, meaning results can vary significantly between surveys. Seat projections produced by electoral modelling tools are based on assumptions about how national vote shares might translate into constituency results and should be interpreted as illustrative scenarios rather than forecasts.
Nevertheless, repeated polling showing Reform UK leading nationally has prompted increased discussion about whether British politics is entering a more fragmented era. For decades, government has alternated primarily between Labour and the Conservatives, but recent polling suggests support is becoming more dispersed across several parties, including the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP.
Attention will now turn to the Government’s next major policy announcements, particularly on taxation, public spending and economic growth. With speculation continuing over the contents of the Chancellor’s forthcoming Budget, opposition parties are expected to scrutinise any proposed changes closely, arguing that fiscal decisions will play a significant role in shaping public opinion ahead of the next General Election.
Ultimately, elections are decided by voters rather than opinion polls. Public attitudes can change in response to economic conditions, leadership, campaign performance and unexpected events. While the latest survey presents a challenging picture for Labour and encouraging headlines for Reform UK, the political landscape remains fluid, and all major parties are expected to continue adapting their strategies as they prepare for future electoral contests.