Sir Keir Starmer is facing record unpopularity (Image: Getty)

Nigel Farage is still on course to enter Downing Street (Image: Getty)

By contrast, the second-largest party would be the Lib Dems, who would form the official opposition with 72 MPs.

Labour would be third with just 68 MPs, while the Tories would fall into sixth place behind the Green Party and the SNP.

Labour would win just 68 seats, according to the poll (Image: Electoral Calculus )

Reacting to the poll, Reform’s chairman, Dr David Bull, said it proves that the “old two-party system is dead”.

He added: “There is a seismic shift happening out there.

“Reform UK is offering a real alternative for Britain’s future.”

Labour Crashes to Shocking Low in Devastating New Poll

Labour has been hit by a difficult new polling result, with support for the governing party standing at just 23 per cent in the latest YouGov Westminster voting-intention survey.

The figure places Labour only two points ahead of both the Conservatives and Reform UK, with each opposition party recording 21 per cent. The Greens were on 14 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats stood at 12 per cent.

Although the figures do not amount to a collapse in the strict statistical sense, the result illustrates how fragmented British politics has become. Labour’s position is considerably different from the commanding lead recorded by the party at the 2024 general election, and the latest numbers show that three parties are competing within a narrow range.

The poll, conducted by YouGov on September 20 and 21, comes after several months of significant political change. Andy Burnham has replaced Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister, while Reform UK has faced internal controversies and the Conservatives have attempted to rebuild under Kemi Badenoch.

For Labour, the 23 per cent figure is therefore another reminder that the party’s recovery remains incomplete.

Labour on 23 Per Cent

The YouGov survey provides a snapshot rather than a prediction of an election result.

Labour’s 23 per cent represents no change from the previous YouGov survey conducted on September 13 and 14. Reform UK, meanwhile, fell two points to 21 per cent, while the Conservatives gained one point to reach 21 per cent.

The Greens recorded one of the largest movements, increasing three points to 14 per cent. The Liberal Democrats fell one point to 12 per cent. Restore Britain was on 4 per cent, while the SNP recorded 2 per cent and Plaid Cymru 1 per cent.

The narrow gap between the three largest parties is particularly significant.

Only two percentage points separated Labour from both Reform and the Conservatives. That means relatively small changes in public opinion could alter the order of the parties in subsequent surveys.

At the same time, polling margins of error mean that small differences should not automatically be interpreted as definitive evidence of one party establishing a durable lead.

A Very Different Political Landscape

The latest result looks particularly striking when compared with Labour’s position after the 2024 general election.

Labour won 411 seats in 2024, giving it a large parliamentary majority. But the electoral system means that the relationship between national vote share and parliamentary seats is not straightforward.

The party’s current polling numbers therefore cannot simply be translated into a future Commons total.

YouGov’s latest MRP provides a useful illustration. Based on interviews with 16,758 adults conducted between August 23 and September 18, the model projected Labour as the largest party with 241 seats if an election were held under the assumptions of the model.

That would still represent a substantial fall from Labour’s 2024 total, but it would also mark a considerable improvement on YouGov’s MRP from a year earlier, when Labour was projected to win only 144 seats.

The contrast demonstrates why a single percentage figure needs to be treated carefully.

A party can be substantially below its previous election vote while simultaneously improving its projected parliamentary position compared with an earlier polling model.

Burnham’s Challenge

The poll also comes at an important stage of Andy Burnham’s premiership.

Burnham entered Downing Street in July after Starmer resigned as Labour leader and Prime Minister. His arrival initially coincided with an improvement in Labour’s polling position.

In late July, More in Common recorded Labour on 28 per cent, up four points, with Reform UK on 24 per cent. The Guardian described the result as Labour overtaking Reform for the first time in more than a year.

The subsequent figures have been less dramatic.

Ipsos, surveying 1,031 British adults between September 10 and 15, placed Labour on 27 per cent, four points ahead of Reform on 23 per cent. The Conservatives were on 21 per cent, the Greens on 13 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent.

The difference between the Ipsos and YouGov results highlights the importance of looking at several polls rather than treating one survey as definitive.

Across these surveys, Labour remains competitive, but its support is far from overwhelming.

Reform’s Position

Reform UK is another important part of the picture.

Nigel Farage’s party has experienced considerable changes during 2026. It made significant gains in the May elections but subsequently lost ground in several Westminster voting-intention polls.

The latest YouGov survey placed Reform on 21 per cent, its lowest figure in that pollster’s tracker since January 2025. The party was nevertheless tied with the Conservatives and only two points behind Labour.

A separate More in Common poll produced an even different picture. It put Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform on 22 per cent. That result left Reform narrowly behind the Conservatives.

The variation demonstrates that the political contest is fluid rather than settled.

Reform has also faced controversy over political donations and allegations concerning the handling of foreign-linked funding. These issues have generated scrutiny of the party and its leadership, although polling should not automatically be attributed to any single event without evidence establishing a direct causal connection.

The Conservatives Are Also Close

The Conservative Party’s position is equally important.

Under Kemi Badenoch, the party has struggled to restore the dominance it once enjoyed among centre-right voters, while competing directly with Reform for parts of the electorate.

The latest YouGov survey puts the Conservatives on exactly the same level as Reform: 21 per cent.

That creates a three-way contest at the top of the polling table.

For the Conservatives, being level with Reform means the battle for voters on the right remains significant. For Labour, the fragmentation of opposition support can affect the electoral consequences of its own vote share.

The first-past-the-post system rewards geographically concentrated support, meaning that national polling percentages cannot be converted directly into parliamentary seats.

The Green Party’s Rise

Another feature of the YouGov survey is the Greens’ movement to 14 per cent.

The Green Party gained three points in the latest poll, taking it above the Liberal Democrats and narrowing the distance between itself and the three leading parties.

The rise is significant because it adds another dimension to Labour’s electoral challenge.

Labour does not face competition only from Reform and the Conservatives. In many urban and progressive areas, the Greens can compete for voters who might otherwise support Labour.

YouGov’s September research on tactical voting found that Labour had strengthened its position in head-to-head contests. When voters were asked to choose in a constituency where only Labour and Reform were considered viable, Labour was backed by 41 per cent compared with 26 per cent for Reform.

Such figures illustrate how constituency-level behaviour can differ from national voting intention.

What the Poll Does Not Show

The phrase “devastating new poll” reflects political and media rhetoric rather than a measurable polling category.

The 23 per cent Labour figure is undoubtedly well below the party’s 2024 general-election vote share, but the latest YouGov poll did not show Labour collapsing behind Reform or the Conservatives.

Indeed, Labour remained the largest party in that particular survey, albeit by only two points.

Nor does the poll establish what would happen at a general election. Voting intention surveys measure opinion at a particular moment, while an election campaign can change priorities, turnout and tactical voting behaviour.

YouGov’s latest MRP similarly should not be interpreted as an election forecast. Its central projection showed Labour as the largest party but without an overall majority, with Reform and the Conservatives significantly behind in seat numbers.

A Warning Sign for Labour

Nevertheless, the figures provide Labour with a clear political challenge.

The party’s national support remains well below the level associated with its 2024 parliamentary majority. It must also contend with competition from several directions, including Reform on the right and the Greens and Liberal Democrats in other parts of the electoral map.

Burnham’s initial polling improvement demonstrates that leadership changes can coincide with substantial movement in public opinion. But the latest YouGov numbers suggest that the early improvement has not produced a commanding national position.

The government therefore faces the difficult task of converting political momentum into sustained public support.

For Reform and the Conservatives, meanwhile, the closeness of the numbers means that neither party can assume that its current position will remain unchanged.

A Fragmented Contest

The most important message from the latest poll may therefore be the degree of fragmentation in British politics.

Labour at 23 per cent, the Conservatives at 21 per cent and Reform UK at 21 per cent create an unusually tight contest at the top. The Greens at 14 per cent and Liberal Democrats at 12 per cent further demonstrate how support is distributed across a much wider field.

Other polling confirms that the exact numbers vary according to the pollster and fieldwork period. Ipsos recorded Labour on 27 per cent, while More in Common put the party on 26 per cent.

The result is a political environment in which individual polls can produce dramatic headlines, but longer-term trends require comparison across multiple surveys.

For Labour, 23 per cent is certainly a challenging number when compared with its 2024 performance. Yet the same evidence also shows a party that has recovered substantially from some of the much weaker projections recorded during the final period of Starmer’s leadership.

The political picture remains unsettled. Labour is competing closely with Reform and the Conservatives, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats retain significant support.

Rather than demonstrating that one party has definitively broken away from the field, the latest figures point to an increasingly fragmented electorate in which small movements in public opinion could have significant consequences for the distribution of support across Britain.

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