Conservatives talk tough on defence, but Nigel Farage could pull a blinder and steal their thunder this week, writes Aaron Newbury
Kemi Badenoch issues terrifying war warning
Kemi Badenoch has clearly found her strongest ground, where she can take shot after shot at Labour and Reform UK – her greatest foes. Standing aboard HMS Wellington, a doughty former warship on the banks of the Thames, she warned that Britain is already at war. Not a war of tanks and planes, but a far more modern threat that is no less nefarious and deadly. A shadow war fought from behind a computer screen, which has already seen factories hacked, power plants sabotaged and European supermarket freezers turned into ovens.
It was a speech very much built for the moment, and the Tory leader was proud to show off the capabilities of her defence team, who have scored hit after hit in recent months. And the threat – no matter how distant it seems – will only grow starker. Experts warn us that the wars of tomorrow will not be fought like the conflicts of yesterday.
The rapid pace of tech change lends urgency to the need to shore up our defences.
Hyper-intelligent hostile artificial hackers and AI-powered drone swarms are sadly no longer plotlines for sci-fi films. We have seen the impact of these attacks already. A hack on major UK manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover cost the British economy some £2bn.
Russian ships prowl the Channel and threaten undersea communications and power cables, without which we would all suffer. With last week’s Budget leaving the Government’s 3% defence target to yet another review, Mrs Badenoch has spotted Labour’s soft underbelly.
Polling backs her instinct to kick Labour on defence, and to kick hard. The issue ranks highly in the minds of British voters, and slowly her party is showing the green shoots of recovery. Yet even now the Tories lead by a whisker, not a mile, and Nigel Farage continues to snap up their vote.
Perhaps, then, this week could start on a high and end on a low for the Tory boss. Reform is expected to name its first defence spokesman on Thursday. Until now, that empty post has been one of the Conservative Party’s best weapons.
Reform has no record to defend.
An analysis by The Independent found Reform MPs took no part in 147 of 210 Commons defence debates and questions since 2024. Nine of Mr Farage’s 10 interventions were on the Chagos Islands.
A credible appointment – a former officer, say – would blunt that attack overnight and hand Mr Farage the uniformed face he lacks.
Mrs Badenoch also carries baggage Reform does not. Labour’s Luke Pollard was quick to remind voters that it was the Tories who shrank the Army to its smallest size since Napoleon.
Reform has no record to defend. So the Tory leader must move fast to find new ground and a way to battle Reform UK when it enters the field.
If she sets the terms of the defence debate, Reform’s spokesman will be playing catch-up. If not, she risks watching another of her few clear advantages cross the floor.