Green Party leader Zack Polanski and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (Image: pa)
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has suffered a massive blow after a new opinion poll suggested Labour might actually have fallen into fourth place with voters. The new survey, by polling company Findoutnow, suggests that Labour may now be less popular than Reform, the Conservatives and the Green Party.
The survey found 32% of voters would back Reform if a general election was held today, putting Nigel Farage’s party firmly in first place. It then put the Conservatives second, with 17% of the vote. This is an important result for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, because some of her nervous MPs will be delighted by the idea that they are beating Labour – even if they are still behind Reform.
But the next results are perhaps the most interesting, They show that Labour and the Green Party, which has a new leader in Zack Polanski, are both backed by 15% of voters. And when you look at the figures in more detail, the Greens are backed by 15.3% of voters – with Labour supported by 15.2%.
This won’t be enough to panic Labour MPs yet. The difference between the Labour and the Green Party, and even between Labour and the Conservatives, is within the “margin of error”, which is 2-3%. In other words, the polling companies always warn that they don’t know for sure how people will vote, and suggest that all the results could be up to 3% out.
Also, Findoutnow uses a slightly different method of conducting surveys to most other polling companies, although of course its always possible that their method is the best one. We can’t really judge that until a general election actually takes place.
Even so, it highlights a real concern for Labour – that the Green Party is winning support from left-wing voters who might otherwise back Labour, including some students, graduates and other more middle-class voters, at the same time as Reform is winning support from some more conservative-minded voters in industrial areas who also backed Labour in the past.
Sir Keir Starmer faces a huge dilemma as he attempts to fight off threats from two different directions. Some of his Labour colleagues fear he is going too far in trying to win over voters who could switch to Reform, for example by promising to crackdown on immigration, and may actually be hurting Labour’s chances with more liberal-minded voters who are more supportive of immigration.
Findoutnow also produces data showing average support for the parties over the past three weeks, and this shows Labour in second place, with 17% of the vote, Tories on 16% and Greens on 14%. However, it shows support for Labour has been falling since January, while support for the Green Party is rising.
For Labour strategists, the significance of the poll lies less in the exact percentages than in the broader trend it appears to illustrate. Even if individual surveys fluctuate from week to week, repeated signs of weakening support inevitably increase pressure on the party leadership to reconsider its political direction.
Political analysts note that Labour is now attempting to hold together a remarkably broad electoral coalition. In many metropolitan constituencies, voters expect ambitious action on climate change, social justice, public services and international cooperation. Meanwhile, in many towns and former industrial communities, concerns about immigration, crime, economic security and the cost of living dominate local conversations. Reconciling those priorities has become one of the party’s greatest strategic challenges.
The rise of Reform UK has complicated the picture further. Nigel Farage’s party has continued to focus heavily on immigration, border security, national sovereignty and criticism of established political institutions. Those issues have resonated with some voters who feel successive governments have failed to address long-standing concerns. At the same time, the Green Party has continued to strengthen its appeal among environmentally focused and socially progressive voters, particularly younger demographics and university-educated professionals.
This creates pressure on Labour from both directions. Every policy announcement risks pleasing one section of its coalition while disappointing another. Measures designed to demonstrate a tougher approach on migration may reassure some voters but alienate others who prioritise humanitarian commitments or international cooperation. Conversely, policies aimed at energising progressive supporters can prompt criticism from those seeking stronger emphasis on economic growth, policing or border enforcement.
Several commentators argue that this balancing act has become increasingly visible in Labour’s public messaging. Speeches frequently attempt to combine themes of economic responsibility, public investment, stronger border controls and social fairness. While that broad approach may appeal to moderate voters, critics contend that it can also make the party appear cautious or unclear about its long-term priorities.
Conservative figures have sought to use the polling as evidence that Labour’s electoral coalition is becoming more fragile. They argue that dissatisfaction among both left-leaning and more socially conservative voters reflects uncertainty over the Government’s direction. Labour supporters, however, point out that opinion polls represent snapshots rather than predictions and that electoral support can shift considerably between elections.
Meanwhile, Green Party representatives have welcomed indications of increased support as evidence that environmental issues remain important despite ongoing debates about inflation, public finances and international security. They argue that climate policy and economic growth should not be presented as competing priorities, but rather as complementary objectives that can reinforce one another through investment and innovation.
Polling experts also urge caution when interpreting any single survey. Different polling companies use different methodologies, weighting systems and assumptions about likely turnout. As a result, individual polls may vary noticeably even when conducted over similar periods. For that reason, many analysts place greater emphasis on long-term averages and trends across multiple polling organisations rather than isolated results.
Another factor likely to influence future polling is the public’s assessment of economic performance. Historically, governments often gain or lose support based on living standards, inflation, wages and confidence in public services. If economic conditions improve, governing parties can sometimes recover support even after periods of political difficulty. Conversely, persistent concerns over household finances may continue to shape voting intentions regardless of leadership changes or campaign messaging.
Questions surrounding leadership also remain central to the political debate. Public perceptions of competence, trustworthiness and decisiveness often play an important role in British elections. Political parties therefore face the challenge of presenting not only persuasive policies but also leaders capable of convincing voters they can deliver them effectively.
With considerable time remaining before the next scheduled General Election, today’s polling should be viewed as one indicator of current public sentiment rather than a definitive forecast of future outcomes. Opinion can shift rapidly in response to economic developments, major policy announcements, international events or election campaigns. Nevertheless, the survey contributes to an ongoing discussion about the changing dynamics of British politics and the increasingly competitive landscape facing all major parties.