Jacob Rees-Mogg Tipped to Leave Tories for Reform in Huge Blow to Kemi Badenoch
Jacob Rees-Mogg has once again found himself at the centre of speculation about the future of the Conservative Party, amid growing questions over whether he could eventually abandon the Tories and join Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
The former Conservative cabinet minister has long been associated with the political right and has maintained a close relationship with several prominent Reform figures.
His repeated calls for the two parties to work together have fuelled speculation that his political future could lie outside the Conservative Party.
For Kemi Badenoch, the possibility of losing another high-profile Conservative figure would create an uncomfortable political challenge.
But there is an important complication: Rees-Mogg has previously rejected suggestions that he intends to defect.
The former MP has made clear that, despite his admiration for Farage and his support for closer cooperation, he believes there are reasons to remain a Conservative.
Nevertheless, the question continues to attract attention as Reform attempts to establish itself as a major force in British politics.
Why Rees-Mogg is being linked to Reform
Rees-Mogg has never concealed his belief that the political right needs to find common ground.
He has repeatedly argued that the Conservatives and Reform UK share enough policy positions to make cooperation a sensible option.
His relationship with Farage stretches back many years, including the period before the Brexit referendum.
Indeed, Rees-Mogg previously supported the idea of closer cooperation between the Conservatives and the UK Independence Party, which Farage led at the time.
Both politicians have been associated with Britain’s Brexit movement, although their political careers have followed different paths.
Since losing his North East Somerset seat at the 2024 general election, Rees-Mogg has remained visible through television appearances and political commentary.
He has continued to discuss the future of the Conservative Party and the growing influence of Reform.
For Reform, attracting someone with his political profile would provide another recognisable figure with experience of government and Westminster.
However, political admiration does not necessarily mean that a formal defection is imminent.
Rees-Mogg’s position after Robert Jenrick’s defection
Speculation intensified after Robert Jenrick left the Conservatives and joined Reform UK in January 2026.
Jenrick’s departure was a major moment for the Conservative Party because he had been a senior figure and had previously held several important government positions.
Attention quickly turned towards other Conservatives who might follow him.
Rees-Mogg was among the names discussed.
However, he subsequently explained why he would not follow Jenrick.
In an article titled “Why I will not be following Robert Jenrick”, the former minister argued that leaving the Conservatives would not achieve what he wanted politically.
He acknowledged his respect for Farage and his agreement with aspects of Jenrick’s criticism of the Conservative Party.
Nevertheless, he maintained that remaining within the Conservative movement was the right decision for him.
That statement is important because it directly challenges claims that he has already decided to join Reform.
There is currently a difference between political commentators speculating about a possible defection and Rees-Mogg actually announcing one.
A major disagreement with Kemi Badenoch
The biggest disagreement between Rees-Mogg and Badenoch concerns how the Conservatives should deal with Reform.
Rees-Mogg believes that the two parties should explore cooperation to prevent the political right from dividing its support.
Badenoch has taken a different position.
She has repeatedly rejected the idea of an electoral pact or coalition with Farage.
The disagreement became particularly visible during the Makerfield by-election campaign in May 2026.
Rees-Mogg argued that the Conservatives and Reform should work together to challenge Labour, describing the contest as an opportunity for the right to unite.
He warned that dividing support could make it easier for Labour to win.
Badenoch, however, insisted that the Conservatives would field their own candidate.
Her position was that the party needed to compete independently rather than become part of an arrangement with Farage.
The disagreement exposed a fundamental strategic question for the Conservatives.
Should the party attempt to win back Reform voters by competing directly, or should it explore cooperation with a political movement that shares several of its priorities?
Rees-Mogg clearly favours greater cooperation.
Badenoch has so far refused to follow that approach.
Badenoch sends a strong message to potential defectors
The Conservative leader has also made her position on defections increasingly clear.
During the Conservative Party Conference in October 2026, Badenoch ruled out a coalition with Reform in the event of a hung parliament.
She indicated that she would rather face another general election than enter a coalition with Farage.
She also warned that politicians who leave the Conservatives for Reform should not expect to return automatically.
Badenoch said she wanted Reform voters to come back to the Conservatives, but criticised politicians who had abandoned her party.
Her comments reflected an attempt to draw a clear distinction between attracting voters and welcoming back politicians who had defected.
This approach could make any future decision by Rees-Mogg more complicated.
If he did join Reform, returning to the Conservative Party later might not be straightforward.
It also demonstrates why the Conservative leadership is keen to prevent further prominent departures.
Rees-Mogg continues to praise Badenoch
Interestingly, Rees-Mogg has not always been openly critical of the Conservative leader.
Speaking to LBC during the Conservative Party Conference in October, he said Badenoch was doing “remarkably well”.
He argued that she had helped stabilise the party after the devastating 2024 general election defeat.
He also suggested that the Conservatives were beginning to recover from the political difficulties that followed losing power.
However, his praise came alongside another call for closer relations with Reform.
He argued that the two parties had very little difference in policy terms and warned that failing to cooperate could leave Britain with a government he considered much further to the left.
This combination of support for Badenoch and criticism of the party’s strategy illustrates why Rees-Mogg’s position is difficult to categorise.
He does not appear to support every decision made by the Conservative leadership, but neither has he abandoned the party.
His preferred solution remains cooperation between the two political movements.
Why Farage could benefit from a Rees-Mogg defection
For Nigel Farage, securing the support of Rees-Mogg would have considerable symbolic value.
Reform has been working to attract politicians who previously served in Conservative governments.
The arrival of former ministers and experienced parliamentarians allows the party to present itself as more than a protest movement.
Rees-Mogg would bring a distinctive political identity.
He is closely associated with Brexit, traditional Conservative values and a particular vision of Britain’s constitutional and economic future.
His presence could also strengthen Reform’s appeal among voters who remain attached to traditional Conservative politics but are increasingly dissatisfied with the established party.
However, it would not automatically translate into additional parliamentary strength.
Rees-Mogg lost his seat in 2024 and is currently a former MP rather than a serving Conservative parliamentarian.
A defection would therefore be politically significant, but it would not immediately reduce Badenoch’s number of MPs.
The longer-term consequences would depend on whether he sought to return to Parliament under a Reform banner and whether other politicians followed his example.
The Conservative Party’s growing identity problem
The wider issue facing Badenoch is not simply whether one former minister remains loyal.
It is whether the Conservatives can establish a political identity that attracts voters who have increasingly turned towards Reform.
The two parties overlap on several major issues.
These include immigration, Brexit, taxation, public spending, national sovereignty and the role of government.
Yet there are also differences in leadership, political organisation and the way each party approaches the electorate.
Badenoch wants the Conservatives to rebuild their reputation as an independent political force.
Farage wants Reform to challenge the established parties and become a central part of Britain’s political landscape.
Rees-Mogg’s repeated calls for unity suggest that he believes the division between these movements is damaging to the wider political right.
But Badenoch clearly believes that a separate Conservative identity is essential.
That disagreement is likely to remain a major issue as the next general election approaches.
Could Rees-Mogg really make the move?
The possibility cannot be dismissed entirely, given his relationship with Farage and his repeated support for closer cooperation.
However, the available evidence does not establish that Rees-Mogg has decided to leave the Conservatives.
His own previous statement rejecting a move after Jenrick’s defection remains an important part of the story.
His October comments to LBC also suggested that he continued to see a future for Badenoch’s leadership, even while arguing for a closer relationship with Reform.
It would therefore be misleading to present a defection as a confirmed event.
For now, the speculation is being driven by political relationships, ideological similarities and disagreements over electoral strategy.
A difficult choice for the future of the right
The Conservative Party is facing a difficult period as it attempts to recover from its 2024 defeat and respond to Reform’s growing political influence.
Badenoch wants to demonstrate that the Conservatives can rebuild without becoming dependent on Farage.
Rees-Mogg believes that cooperation could prevent the political right from weakening itself through competition.
Farage, meanwhile, continues to benefit from the attention surrounding former Conservative figures who are considering their political futures.
Whether Rees-Mogg eventually makes the move remains uncertain.
But the debate reveals a much bigger question for British politics: can the Conservatives and Reform remain separate movements while competing for many of the same voters?
For Badenoch, preventing further high-profile departures will be important.
For Farage, attracting more experienced Conservative politicians could strengthen his party’s claim to be a serious alternative.
And for Rees-Mogg, the decision may ultimately come down to whether he believes he can achieve more by remaining inside the Conservative Party or by joining a movement that increasingly shares his political priorities.
Until he makes that decision publicly, the prospect of a defection remains speculation rather than a confirmed political development.