Kemi Badenoch delivers her conference speech (Image: Getty)
I’m a believer. In Kemi, that is. I’ve attended three party conferences in recent weeks – Reform, Labour and Conservative. I came away convinced, for the first time, that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has a real chance of becoming prime minister.
Here are the reasons why:
1. She’s the most improved party leader
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Kemi Badenoch got off to a slow start. She’s admitted it herself, saying she’s got better as she learned how to do the job of Leader of the Opposition. When she was first elected Tory leader in 2024, plenty of her own MPs thought she’d be replaced before the next election.
Nobody is saying that now. She’s won the respect of her party and people who watch politics closely by taking the fight to Labour and winning. She battled the Government over its decisions to cut winter fuel payments, destroy family farms, and appoint Lord Mandelson as US ambassador, and forced them into U-turns every time. And the wider public is beginning to notice.
2. She understands her weaknesses
Polling shows that Kemi Badenoch has a better approval rating than most of her rivals – and it’s still getting better. In other words, the public likes her (or at least dislikes her less than they dislike most politicians).
But voters still don’t like the Conservative Party. So she’s done two things. One is constantly reminding people that the Conservative Party is “under new management” – and speaking bluntly about its past mistakes. She doesn’t fall into the trap of trying to tell voters they are wrong.
The second, as we saw in the recent Conservative conference, is to start talking about her team. In fact, in her conference speech, she said repeatedly that she had “a great team” – a phrase she used on three different occasions. Far from seeing her Shadow Cabinet colleagues as rivals, she’s secure enough that she wants some of the Kemi magic to rub off on them.
3. She’s rejected a pact with Reform
Some Conservatives want to “unite the Right” and bring Reform and the Conservatives together. You can understand why – perhaps one united party, or an alliance of the two, would have a better chance of beating Labour.
If Reform and the Conservatives stand against each other in every seat, they could split the vote and allow Labour to win. But a deal with Reform could be fatal.
Conservatives have always been a broad church. Some Right-wing Tory MPs hate to admit it, but the party always had a place for moderates, liberals, “wets”, the one-nation tendency – call them what you will. And when it has won elections, it’s often been by appealing to centre-ground voters. That’s how David Cameron achieved his majority in 2015.
Boris Johnson was associated with Brexit, often seen as a Right-wing policy. But in other respects, he presented himself as a One Nation, liberal Conservative, and won an overwhelming majority in 2019.
Tories need centre-ground voters, but a deal with Reform would mean they abandoned the Conservatives for good. Kemi herself is a Right-wing politician, but she’s got enough common sense to know an alliance with Nigel Farage could be the end of her party.
4. She’s aiming to win
And speaking of moderate voters, this is the group that the Conservative Party is now focusing on. While the party still has a lot to say about immigration and Brexit, it is now talking more about the economy, the cost of living and the practical steps it will take to help middle-class voters keep more of their own money.
Kemi’s first two years as leader were about seeing off the threat from Nigel Farage and Reform. She now feels confident enough to think more about how she can actually win a general election and storm into No 10.
5. She’s a great speaker
What impressed me about Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech was the sense that she really meant what she said. She has convictions. And yes, in that regard, she is a bit like Margaret Thatcher, her political hero.
Some people feel Kemi Badenoch is too combative. She can sound like she’s spoiling for a fight (again, just like Maggie). She can also turn on the charm when she wants to.
But the UK doesn’t need a charming man in No 10. They need someone ready to battle for Britain, and Kemi’s certainly up for the fight.
I Doubted Kemi Badenoch – But Now I Can See Her Becoming Prime Minister
For a long time, Kemi Badenoch faced a difficult challenge that few Conservative leaders could have overcome easily. She inherited a party battered by electoral defeat, public frustration and years of political turmoil. Many voters had lost confidence in the Conservatives, while others questioned whether the party could offer a convincing alternative to Labour. Even among some traditional Conservative supporters, doubts remained about whether Badenoch possessed the experience, authority and political instincts required to lead Britain.
I was among those who questioned whether she could rise to the occasion. Becoming leader of the Conservative Party was one thing; convincing the country that she could become prime minister was another. Britain was facing serious economic pressures, public services were under strain, and voters were increasingly impatient with politicians who appeared unable to deliver meaningful change. Against that backdrop, Badenoch had an enormous task ahead of her.
Yet the more closely her political approach is examined, the easier it becomes to understand why some observers are beginning to take her leadership ambitions more seriously. The possibility of Badenoch eventually entering Downing Street may once have seemed remote, but British politics has a habit of producing unexpected turnarounds.
The question is whether she can turn that possibility into a credible national movement.
A Conservative Party Searching for Its Identity
The Conservatives have spent years struggling to reconcile competing priorities within their own ranks. Questions about immigration, taxation, public spending, national identity and Britain’s relationship with Europe have repeatedly exposed divisions between different sections of the party.
After a major electoral setback, those disagreements became even more consequential. Conservative supporters wanted answers about what had gone wrong, while voters who had abandoned the party needed a compelling reason to return.
Badenoch’s challenge is therefore not simply to criticise the government. Opposition leaders can make headlines by attacking ministers, highlighting policy failures or delivering sharp exchanges in Parliament. But becoming a serious candidate for prime minister requires something more substantial: a coherent programme, a united party and a convincing explanation of how the country would benefit from a change of government.
That is where Badenoch’s political future will be decided.
She has sought to present herself as a politician prepared to challenge established assumptions rather than automatically accept the prevailing consensus. For supporters, that approach offers a welcome contrast with what they see as an overly cautious political establishment. For critics, however, forceful rhetoric must eventually be matched by practical solutions.
The challenge is to demonstrate that conviction can translate into effective government.
Why Some Voters May Begin to Reconsider Her
Political reputations can change surprisingly quickly. A leader who initially struggles to command attention may gradually become more familiar to voters, particularly if the government encounters difficulties or the opposition succeeds in identifying issues that resonate with the public.
Badenoch could benefit from such a shift if she can establish a clear message on the issues that matter most to households.
The cost of living remains central to the political debate. Families want greater financial security, workers want their wages to stretch further, and businesses want a tax and regulatory environment in which they can invest and expand. Many people are also concerned about the condition of public services and whether politicians have realistic plans to improve them.
On immigration, voters want to know whether the government can manage the system effectively, enforce the rules and maintain public confidence. On the economy, they want policies that encourage growth without creating new financial burdens. On public services, they want improvements that can be seen in everyday life rather than promises that disappear after an election.
These are not easy problems, and no opposition leader can solve them simply by identifying what is wrong. Nevertheless, they provide Badenoch with an opportunity to explain what a Conservative government would do differently.
If she can offer policies that are clear, credible and financially responsible, she may gradually persuade voters who currently remain unconvinced.
The Challenge of Nigel Farage and Reform UK
One of Badenoch’s most significant obstacles is the competition for right-of-centre voters.
Nigel Farage and Reform UK have attempted to turn dissatisfaction with the political establishment into electoral support. Their message has appealed to voters who believe the major parties have failed to address immigration, public spending and broader concerns about Britain’s direction.
For the Conservatives, this creates a difficult strategic problem. Attacking Reform too aggressively could reinforce the impression that the traditional right is divided. Moving closer to Reform’s positions might satisfy some voters but alienate others who want a more moderate or economically cautious Conservative Party.
Badenoch must therefore decide what kind of political coalition she wants to build.
She cannot assume that every former Conservative voter will automatically return simply because the party has a new leader. Some voters may have moved to Reform because of immigration. Others may be angry about taxation, public services or the perceived failure of successive governments. Still others may have lost faith in politics altogether.
Winning them back will require more than slogans.
Badenoch needs to explain why the Conservatives deserve another opportunity to govern and how her leadership would produce different results. She must also make the case that voting Conservative offers a practical route to change, rather than simply a protest against the current government.
That will be especially important if Reform continues to attract attention and challenge the Conservatives in constituencies where the right-wing vote could be divided.
Can She Rebuild Trust?
One of the biggest obstacles facing any Conservative leader is the party’s recent record in government. Leadership changes alone cannot erase voters’ memories of political instability, policy reversals or disagreements that appeared to take priority over the country’s needs.
Badenoch cannot simply distance herself from every previous Conservative decision. Her party must acknowledge where it lost public confidence while explaining which policies it would retain, which it would change and why.
This is a delicate balancing act.
If she attacks the record of previous Conservative governments too harshly, she risks undermining the party she now leads. If she defends that record without qualification, she may struggle to convince voters that anything would be different under her leadership.
The most effective approach would be to demonstrate that the party has learned from its mistakes.
That means setting out measurable objectives, explaining how policies would be funded and accepting responsibility when promises cannot be fulfilled. It also means resisting the temptation to promise immediate solutions to problems that have developed over many years.
Voters have heard ambitious political declarations before. What they increasingly want is evidence that a leader understands the practical difficulties involved in delivering them.
For Badenoch, credibility may ultimately prove more valuable than any individual speech or parliamentary confrontation.
Her Style Could Be Both a Strength and a Weakness
Badenoch is known for a direct political style that can make her stand out in an increasingly crowded media environment. Supporters may interpret that approach as evidence of confidence and independence. They may welcome a leader who appears willing to challenge opponents rather than retreat from difficult arguments.
However, the same style can create risks.
A political leader must appeal not only to committed supporters but also to undecided voters who may have little knowledge of the party’s policies. If a message becomes too confrontational, its substance can be overshadowed by the argument surrounding it.
The challenge for Badenoch is to combine firmness with reassurance.
She needs to show that she can defend her principles while listening to people who disagree with her. She must also demonstrate that she can lead a diverse parliamentary party, negotiate difficult compromises when necessary and make decisions under pressure.
Those qualities matter because being prime minister involves far more than winning political arguments. It requires managing government departments, responding to international crises, making difficult economic choices and maintaining public confidence during periods of uncertainty.
A successful opposition leader must persuade voters that she is ready for those responsibilities before she can reasonably expect them to entrust her with the country.
The Economy Will Be a Crucial Test
Economic credibility could become one of the defining issues of Badenoch’s leadership.
Conservative voters traditionally expect the party to demonstrate competence on taxation, business investment, public finances and economic growth. But the political debate is complicated by competing demands for better public services, lower household costs and greater financial security.
Promises of tax reductions can sound attractive, yet voters may reasonably ask how those reductions would be funded. Calls for spending restraint may appeal to some sections of the electorate, but they must be accompanied by an explanation of how essential services would continue to function effectively.
Badenoch will need to make those trade-offs understandable.
A credible economic programme would explain how Britain could encourage investment, improve productivity, support businesses and create better-paid employment. It would also address the practical barriers facing people who want to buy homes, start companies or build secure careers.
If she can show how her policies would improve living standards over time, she may be able to strengthen her claim to national leadership.
But if economic proposals appear vague, contradictory or unrealistic, opponents will have an obvious opportunity to challenge her.
What Would It Take for Badenoch to Reach Downing Street?
There is a considerable difference between imagining a politician as prime minister and establishing a realistic route to victory.
Badenoch would need to make progress on several fronts simultaneously. First, she must demonstrate that the Conservative Party has recovered from its electoral difficulties and can operate as a credible, disciplined opposition.
Second, she must establish a distinctive policy offer that voters can understand. Simply opposing Labour is unlikely to be sufficient. People need to know what a Conservative government would change and what benefits those changes would bring.
Third, she must compete effectively with Reform UK without allowing the battle for right-wing voters to consume the entire Conservative agenda.
Finally, she must reach beyond the party’s existing supporters. A leader who appeals strongly to the Conservative base but fails to attract undecided voters may struggle to build the broader coalition required to win a general election.
None of these conditions is guaranteed. Much will depend on the government’s performance, the state of the economy, the priorities of the electorate and the ability of rival parties to present convincing alternatives.
Nevertheless, the possibility of Badenoch becoming prime minister should not be dismissed solely because her leadership began under difficult circumstances.
British politics has repeatedly demonstrated that public opinion is capable of shifting when voters become dissatisfied with the government of the day or begin to see a credible alternative.
From Doubt to Possibility
My initial doubts about Kemi Badenoch reflected the scale of the challenge facing her. Leading a party after a damaging defeat is difficult enough. Rebuilding its reputation while competing against a governing party and an increasingly assertive rival on the right is an even more complicated undertaking.
But doubt should not be confused with impossibility.
Badenoch has an opportunity to show that she can transform the Conservatives from a party struggling to recover into a serious contender for power. Whether she succeeds will depend on her ability to develop credible policies, maintain party unity, communicate effectively and convince voters that she understands the pressures shaping their lives.
The public will ultimately judge her on more than confidence, rhetoric or media performances. It will judge whether she offers believable answers to the problems facing Britain and whether she can be trusted to implement them.
For now, the prospect of Badenoch becoming prime minister remains a political possibility rather than a prediction. There is a long road between leading the opposition and winning a national election, and many obstacles stand in her way.
Yet the political landscape is not fixed. Governments can lose support, opposition parties can recover and leaders once regarded as unlikely contenders can become serious candidates.
I may have doubted Kemi Badenoch’s prospects at first. But if she can turn her political message into a convincing programme for the country, rebuild trust in the Conservative Party and broaden her appeal beyond its traditional base, it is possible to understand why some people are beginning to imagine her in Downing Street.
The decisive question is no longer simply whether she can become prime minister. It is whether she can persuade enough voters that she should.