Robert Jenrick’s defection from the Conservative party to Reform UK in February was, even by Westminster’s standards, a dramatic moment.
While everyone had been expecting Mr Jenrick to jump ship at some point, the fact that Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, found out about his plans in advance, exposed them and stole a march on Reform was what created the real drama.
Her handling of that crisis, and skewerings of Sir Keir Starmer at Prime Minister’s Question Time, have seen Ms Badenoch’s poll ratings improve.
However, that has done little to bolster the Tories’ prospects at the local elections on Thursday, with 600 seats set to fall to rival parties.
Like Labour, the Tories are fighting on two fronts as a consequence of Britain’s political splintering.
In the southern Tory shires of London’s commuter belt, it is the Lib Dems who pose the threat, but in East Anglia it is Reform that is making the running.
In Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex, immigration is a key issue, the biggest challenge is Reform, and opinions are swinging behind Nigel Farage’s party.
The east of England is considered the last Conservative stronghold. Forty per cent of the shadow cabinet have their constituencies there, and many areas have never voted for any other party.
However, according to a poll by JL Partners for The Telegraph, Reform is likely to be the largest party on Suffolk and Norfolk county councils and to outperform the Tories in Essex.
The Telegraph joined Robert Jenrick, Reform’s economy spokesman, for a day of campaigning in the region.
Mr Jenrick, who defected in February, said his role had been to convince disgruntled Conservatives that Reform was a safe and viable alternative.
Middle England requires “a bit of reassurance” to vote for Reform, he said, adding that voters wanted to hear that “we can run the country, we have well thought-through plans and will be careful with people’s money”.
For Sue Wing, a 79-year-old former dress shop worker in Thetford, Norfolk – as for many voters here – immigration is a key concern.
“No one is doing anything about the immigration,” she says. “That has really got to stop now. It’s frightening. It’s like another army coming over.”
Mr Jenrick agrees, saying: “If you bring young men in from Afghanistan, they have very different attitudes. These are very different societies.”
Dee Hilton, a former Ukip supporter who is Reform’s candidate in the ward, said doorstep conversations about the elections had been dominated by immigration – although councils have no responsibility for migration policy.
Reform candidates claim they have been subjected to more abuse than normal from supporters of the resurgent Green Party.
Ms Hilton says she has been called a racist “a lot”, adding: “The thing I hear more than anything else is ‘fascist’ and ‘Nazi’.”
Nonetheless, every one of the dozens of voters canvassed on the doorstep in the day’s campaigning in Suffolk, Norfolk and Essex say they are either voting Reform or considering doing so.
Mr Jenrick is pitching his defection as a blueprint for voters. However, he faces criticism that, as a member of the previous Conservative government, he was part of the administration that had pushed them away from the Tories.
“I think I’ve been on a similar journey to them,” he told The Telegraph. “They voted for the Tory party, they believed in it – and then over time they became increasingly frustrated and felt that it was letting them down. That’s a similar experience to me.”
One hundred and twenty miles south of Norfolk, in the rural towns of Hampshire, it is not immigration but public services and Brexit that have turned voters away from the Tories – not to Reform, but to the Lib Dems.
In a corner of a field in sunny Hampshire, a herd of cows has encircled a gaggle of journalists and Liberal Democrat campaigners.
“Don’t run!” barks Peter Caines, a dairy farmer, calling for calm as he ushers us through a gate to safety. “That’s how most people get trampled.”
Such advice could equally have been delivered to the Tory candidates in what was once the party’s strongest of strongholds.
Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, is campaigning for the day in Petersfield.
The town, of 15,000 people, has been true blue since William Gladstone became prime minister, and is emblematic of the Home Counties constituencies that have shored up the Conservatives for centuries.
But no longer. At the last general election, the Lib Dems reduced the sitting Tory MP’s previously unassailable majority to a wafer-thin 1,275.
During a day of campaigning, simmering anger over Brexit and huge discontent with local health services come up time and again as people’s top concerns.
Both are broadly blamed on the Tories, with former supporters saying that they found the party’s 14 years in power “dispiriting” and are now actively looking for a change.
Hampshire is one of a number of so-called Blue Wall counties – the southern shires that make up the commuter belt of London – that are crumbling as the Lib Dems make steady advances.
Sir Ed says many voters tell him they are still scarred by the “traumatic experience” of watching the Conservatives’ chaotic final few years in power.
“It just was a dreadful way to run the country,” he adds. “It hurt our economy, and it hurt basic politics. I don’t think people have forgiven them.”
His party hopes to capitalise on that disaffection by positioning itself as a “community champion” with unique offerings for different areas.
“There are individual issues in different areas, whether it’s the problems with getting a GP appointment, high streets being run down, big environmental issues – fly-tipping is a really big, big issue, as well as things like sewage,” he says.
But it is not only local issues that are tempting Tory voters in traditionally liberal areas such as Petersfield into making the switch.
In recent months, Sir Ed has carved out a niche for himself by attacking Donald Trump as other party leaders have tempered their language.
Sir Ed is unequivocal that Mr Trump has been bad for Britain. “I thought other parties would see that,” he says. “They didn’t, and I’m afraid they’ve not stood up to him.”
His message taps into growing voter unease about an increasingly volatile world. Public concern about the state of Britain’s Armed Forces is also starting to translate into votes.
Dominic Martin, the party’s candidate for the East Hampshire parliamentary seat, said: “In the general election, I don’t think defence came up unprompted on the doorstep.
“But now I’m finding sometimes the first thing people mention is ‘what are you going to do about defence?’”
Another major issue is Brexit. As Sir Ed goes door to door in Petersfield, he meets residents citing relations with the EU as a key concern.
One is Quentin, who chats to the Lib Dem leader in the doorway of his smart terraced home. “My main interest is Europe,” he says, when asked what will affect his vote. I didn’t feel our incumbent MP represented us as a constituency during the Brexit votes.”
That MP is Damian Hinds, a Conservative former minister who – despite campaigning for Remain – still finds himself facing the wrath of pro-European constituents.
Mr Hinds acknowledged that the Conservatives were looking at “a bad night” on Thursday, but pointed out the party was defending results secured in 2021, at the height of the Boris Johnson bounce.
“We have five-party politics, and that means on the day a lot of different outcomes could happen,” he said. “It’s undeniable that towards the end of the last government there was a lot of frustration, a lot of disquiet with us, and I understand why.
“But things have changed since then. There’s a lot of goodwill towards Kemi, there’s a lot of uncertainty towards what’s going to happen with Reform. A lot of people are motivated by the prospect of Reform doing well, and a lot of people are significantly motivated the other way.”
Around the corner, the Lib Dem campaigning team splits up to tackle a close of larger detached homes. Sir Ed heads for a door that is opened by Marion Flett, a retiree and lifelong Conservative voter.
She tells him that she is “undecided and am getting more and more undecided” about how to cast her ballot this time around.
The Lib Dems are an option for Ms Flett, who voted Remain and believes that politicians were not honest with the public about the costs of Brexit.
But, in a parable of Divided Britain seen across the country, she reveals that other members of her family voted Leave and are now backing Reform.
“I’ve been a Conservative all my life, but the promises were made but never kept,” she adds. “It’s dispiriting. I don’t know what direction to go in.”
Ms Flett is also deeply concerned about the future of the local hospital, where a 21-bed ward specialising in rehabilitation and end-of-life care faces closure. She is one of numerous residents who, throughout the day, bring up the state of health and social care services in the area as one of their main concerns.
Like her, many voters here express frustration with the two established parties but still appear unsure about where to cast their votes on Thursday.
One elderly couple say they haven’t made their minds up yet. A few doors down, a younger man says he is “not too sure”.
Each of these responses goes into a canvassing database, which Sir Ed proudly reveals is the platform that Barack Obama’s campaign used.
One thing, however, appears certain. Facing political sledgehammers from the Lib Dems in the south and Reform in the east, Mrs Badenoch’s Blue Wall is crumbling.