Curtice described the figure as the highest recorded over an extended period since the 2016 referendum.
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However, he warned that the headline advantage could narrow substantially during a real campaign once voters were confronted with questions about the terms Britain might face.
Concerns about the euro, the Schengen travel area, freedom of movement and Britain’s financial contribution could all influence the result.
Western Europeans
Curtice said most people who participated in the original referendum have not actually changed sides.
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Around 18 per cent of those who voted Leave now say they would support rejoining.
Movement in the opposite direction is smaller, with approximately 11 per cent of former Remain voters saying they would vote to stay outside.
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Much of the overall change has instead been driven by the composition of the electorate.
Ten years of younger voters have reached voting age since the referendum, and they are considerably more supportive of EU membership than the electorate as a whole.
At the same time, some older voters from the predominantly Leave-supporting generation have died.
People who were entitled to vote in 2016 but did not participate also now lean towards rejoining.
Those demographic changes mean the electorate Britain would consult in another referendum is no longer the electorate that produced the original result.
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Curtice told The Independent that the trend was likely to continue if other political conditions remained broadly unchanged.
The shift is particularly significant because relatively few major political parties have spent the past decade actively arguing for Britain to rejoin.
The Greens and nationalist parties have supported returning to the EU, while the Liberal Democrats have gradually adopted a more explicitly pro-European position.
Labour has remained much more cautious.
Its leaders have concentrated on improving the existing relationship with Brussels while ruling out a return to the EU, single market or customs union.
Curtice argued that public opinion had therefore moved despite voters receiving relatively little encouragement from senior politicians.
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He suggested a serious political campaign in favour of membership could potentially move support further towards rejoining.
That is not guaranteed.
The polling shows that a substantial potential constituency for rejoining exists, but it has not yet been tested during a national campaign in which opponents would scrutinise the conditions attached.
A future referendum would not simply repeat the choice offered in 2016.
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Britain previously enjoyed several exemptions from European integration, including remaining outside the euro and Schengen.
There is no guarantee that all those arrangements would be restored if the UK applied to return.
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Any membership application would also require negotiations with EU governments. The eventual terms would become central to a referendum campaign.
Curtice said supporters of rejoining would begin from a much stronger position than the Remain campaign occupied in 2016, but warned that they could still lose if opponents successfully framed the choice around sovereignty and European conditions.
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The distinction between supporting the general idea of rejoining and accepting a specific membership agreement is important.
Some voters who want a closer relationship with Europe may hesitate if they believe returning would mean adopting the euro, restoring freedom of movement without restrictions or making a substantially larger contribution to the EU budget.
Equally, supporters of membership could argue that access to European markets and greater influence over decisions affecting Britain would outweigh those concerns.
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No actual re-entry terms currently exist, meaning polling respondents are expressing a preference in principle rather than approving a negotiated agreement.
The rise in support for rejoining has occurred alongside increasingly negative assessments of Brexit’s consequences.
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Research published by the National Centre for Social Research found that 69 per cent of people believed Britain’s economy was worse off because of leaving the EU.
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Only 9 per cent thought the economy had benefited, while 20 per cent believed Brexit had made little difference.
Even among people who voted Leave, 38 per cent said the economy was worse off.
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That was a substantial change from the period immediately after the referendum, when more than half of Leave voters expected Brexit to make Britain economically stronger.
The same research found that 54 per cent of the public believed Brexit had increased immigration, compared with just 7 per cent who thought it had reduced it.
Before the referendum, 57 per cent expected immigration to fall if Britain left the EU.
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Those findings do not mean every disappointed Leave voter now wants to reverse Brexit.
NatCen found that concerns about the economic outcome were more likely to change voting intentions than dissatisfaction with immigration levels.
Sovereignty also remains important.
Approximately half of Leave voters continued to believe Brexit had strengthened Britain’s ability to make its own laws.
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Prime Minister Andy Burnham is pursuing closer cooperation with Brussels while maintaining Labour’s commitment not to rejoin the EU.
Talks have included reducing barriers affecting food and drink exports and establishing a youth mobility arrangement allowing more young people to work, study and travel across Europe.
Curtice warned that the Government could not rely on what he described as Labour’s previous strategy of keeping quiet about Brexit while negotiating practical changes.
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“At some point, if you are a government and you decide to change things, you need to be willing to defend it.”
He argued that Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch would otherwise present any closer relationship as an attempt to disregard the 2016 result.
Politics
Burnham has previously said Brexit damaged Britain but argued that immediately reopening the membership question could revive old divisions.
The new polling creates a difficult balance for Labour.
Most voters expressing a preference now support rejoining, but a large majority of original Leave voters remain opposed.
The latest figures are not an isolated result.
A Survation poll of more than 10,000 people previously found that 63 per cent of decided voters would support rejoining, against 37 per cent who would remain outside.
Separate research found that two-thirds of Britons believed Brexit had made the country’s major challenges harder to address.
The emerging picture is clear: if another referendum reproduced the simple in-or-out choice, the rejoin side would begin with a sizeable advantage.
Curtice’s warning is that the next campaign would not remain that simple for long.
Would you vote to rejoin?
BRITAIN’S EU REJOIN SHOCK! NEW POLLING SHOWS STUNNING 22-POINT LEAD FOR RETURNING TO EUROPE — NIGEL FARAGE AND REFORM UK FACE A POLITICAL NIGHTMARE!
Britain’s relationship with the European Union has suddenly returned to the centre of the national political debate following claims that support for rejoining the EU has surged dramatically.
A reported 22-point lead for the Rejoin campaign has attracted enormous attention, raising serious questions about whether public attitudes towards Brexit are undergoing a historic transformation.
For years, Brexit was presented as a political decision that would permanently reshape Britain’s future.
Millions voted to leave the European Union in 2016, and the country formally departed in January 2020.
However, almost a decade after the referendum, the political atmosphere has changed considerably.
Economic pressures, changing international relationships, trade difficulties, and concerns about Britain’s global influence have encouraged some voters to reconsider the decision.
The latest polling claim has therefore created a major political talking point.
If support for rejoining really is significantly ahead, what does this mean for Britain’s future?
And could Nigel Farage, one of Brexit’s most prominent political champions, face his biggest political challenge yet?
THE 22-POINT POLLING BOMBSHELL THAT HAS REIGNITED BREXIT
The reported 22-point advantage for rejoining the European Union has attracted attention because it suggests a substantial shift in public opinion.
For Brexit supporters, such a figure would be deeply concerning.
For those who believe Britain made a mistake by leaving, it represents an opportunity to reopen a debate that many politicians hoped had been settled.
However, polling figures need to be examined carefully.
The precise survey, sample size, fieldwork dates, question wording, and distinction between people who want to rejoin and those who simply regret leaving are all important.
A poll asking whether Britain should rejoin the EU is not necessarily measuring the same thing as a poll asking whether Brexit was the right decision.
Nevertheless, the reported result highlights an important political reality: Brexit is no longer an issue that can simply be ignored.
Public attitudes continue to evolve, and politicians may eventually have to respond to growing demands for a closer relationship with Europe.
WHY ARE BRITISH VOTERS RECONSIDERING BREXIT?
One of the biggest reasons behind the changing debate is the economic situation.
Since leaving the European Union, Britain has faced a complicated combination of economic challenges, including inflation, weak productivity growth, pressure on public finances, and uncertainty surrounding international trade.
Businesses have also had to adapt to new customs procedures and regulatory requirements when trading with European partners.
For some companies, these changes have increased administrative costs and created additional obstacles.
Smaller businesses have sometimes found the new arrangements particularly difficult to manage.
Supporters of rejoining argue that restoring membership of the European single market and customs arrangements could improve Britain’s trading position.
They believe closer integration would make it easier for British companies to access European customers, recruit workers, and attract investment.
However, the economic argument is not straightforward.
Rejoining the EU would involve negotiations over membership conditions, financial contributions, regulations, and the UK’s future relationship with European institutions.
There would be no guarantee that Britain could simply restore its previous arrangements.
The question is whether the potential economic benefits would justify the political and financial compromises involved.
NIGEL FARAGE FACES A DIFFICULT POLITICAL MOMENT
Few British politicians have built their careers more closely around Brexit than Nigel Farage.
For decades, he campaigned against European integration and argued that Britain needed to regain control over its laws, borders, and political decisions.
His role in the Brexit referendum helped establish him as one of the most influential figures in modern British politics.
Reform UK continues to present Brexit as an important achievement.
The party argues that Britain should make full use of its independence rather than reverse the decision to leave.
A significant increase in support for rejoining would therefore represent a direct challenge to one of Farage’s most important political achievements.
He would need to explain why the public should continue supporting the decision to leave, particularly if voters increasingly associate Brexit with economic difficulties.
However, Farage is unlikely to abandon his position easily.
He has consistently argued that the problems facing Britain are caused by domestic political failures rather than simply by leaving the EU.
The coming debate could therefore become another major confrontation between supporters and opponents of Reform UK.
LABOUR FINDS ITSELF CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE
The growing discussion about rejoining Europe also creates a difficult situation for Labour.
The party must balance the views of voters who regret Brexit with those who still support leaving the European Union.
Some Labour supporters want a much closer relationship with Brussels.
Others believe that reopening the membership question would create unnecessary political division.
The government has generally emphasised improving cooperation with European partners rather than immediately seeking EU membership.
This approach allows Labour to pursue closer economic and diplomatic relationships without committing to a full reversal of Brexit.
However, if support for rejoining continues to increase, ministers may face stronger pressure to explain exactly where Britain should go next.
Opposition parties could accuse Labour of being too cautious.
Brexit supporters could accuse the government of attempting to reverse the referendum result indirectly.
Labour therefore faces a difficult political balancing act.
It must respond to changing public attitudes without creating another constitutional and electoral battle.
WHAT WOULD REJOINING THE EUROPEAN UNION ACTUALLY INVOLVE?
Although the idea of rejoining may sound straightforward, the reality would be considerably more complicated.
Britain would need to apply for membership under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union.
The application would require unanimous approval from EU member states and the agreement of the European Parliament.
Membership negotiations would involve a range of important issues.
These could include financial contributions, regulatory alignment, freedom of movement, agricultural policy, fishing rights, trade arrangements, and Britain’s participation in European institutions.
The UK would not automatically receive exactly the same membership conditions it previously enjoyed.
European governments would also have their own political priorities and negotiating positions.
Some might welcome Britain’s return because of its economic and diplomatic importance.
Others could insist on conditions that would be politically difficult for a future British government to accept.
This means that even if British public opinion strongly favoured rejoining, the process could take considerable time.
A referendum or general election victory would not automatically guarantee successful membership negotiations.
THE ECONOMIC ARGUMENT: COULD REJOINING MAKE BRITAIN RICHER?
The economic consequences would probably dominate any future debate.
Supporters argue that EU membership could reduce trade barriers, improve investment confidence, and make it easier for British companies to operate across Europe.
They also believe that closer cooperation could strengthen scientific research, university partnerships, and industrial development.
Critics, however, argue that membership would involve significant obligations and could restrict Britain’s ability to develop independent economic policies.
They point to the importance of global trade relationships beyond Europe.
The debate is particularly relevant for manufacturing, agriculture, financial services, and businesses that depend heavily on European supply chains.
There is also the question of investment.
Businesses generally value predictable regulations and stable international relationships.
If Britain were to begin serious negotiations over EU membership, companies might welcome greater clarity about the future trading environment.
Others could worry about another prolonged period of political uncertainty.
Ultimately, the economic benefits would depend on the terms negotiated and the wider international circumstances.
REFORM UK WILL FIGHT ANY ATTEMPT TO REVERSE BREXIT
Reform UK is likely to make opposition to rejoining a central part of its political message.
Farage could argue that returning to the European Union would undermine the democratic decision made by voters in 2016.
The party may also present the debate as a choice between national independence and renewed European integration.
This message could appeal to voters who remain strongly committed to Brexit.
However, Reform will need to respond to people who believe the promises made during the referendum campaign have not been fulfilled.
It will need to explain how Britain can improve its economic performance while maintaining its current relationship with the EU.
Simply repeating arguments from 2016 may not be enough to convince younger voters or people whose opinions have changed.
The political challenge for Farage is therefore significant.
He must defend Brexit while demonstrating that the country can prosper outside the European Union.
YOUNGER GENERATIONS COULD CHANGE THE ENTIRE DEBATE
Another important factor is the difference in attitudes between generations.
Younger voters were less likely to have participated in the 2016 referendum because many were not old enough to vote.
Their experiences of Europe are therefore different from those of older generations.
Many have grown up travelling, studying, and working in an increasingly interconnected world.
For some, freedom of movement and access to European opportunities are important considerations.
Others are more concerned about housing, employment, immigration, and the cost of living.
The political preferences of younger generations could therefore influence Britain’s long-term relationship with Europe.
If their support for closer integration remains strong as they become a larger proportion of the electorate, politicians may find it increasingly difficult to treat Brexit as a permanently settled issue.
CONCLUSION: IS BRITAIN REALLY READY TO REOPEN THE BREXIT DEBATE?
The reported 22-point advantage for rejoining the European Union has reignited one of the biggest political arguments in modern British history.
For Brexit supporters, it represents a worrying development.
For those who regret leaving, it provides renewed hope that Britain could eventually return to the European project.
Nigel Farage and Reform UK will undoubtedly resist any attempt to reverse Brexit.
Labour, meanwhile, faces pressure to balance closer European cooperation with the political reality that the country remains divided over membership.
But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the Brexit debate has not disappeared.
Economic pressures, changing generational attitudes, and Britain’s evolving international position continue to shape public opinion.
Whether the reported polling advantage represents a permanent transformation or a temporary shift remains to be seen.
The most important question is no longer simply whether Britain should have left the European Union.
It is whether the country believes its future would be stronger inside or outside the European project.
And if support for rejoining continues to grow, Westminster may eventually face a question that politicians have spent years trying to avoid:
Could Britain really be preparing to reverse Brexit?