Nigel Farage is heading for No10 according to a new poll (Image: Getty)

Reform UK is on course for a landslide majority at the election, as a new poll reveals Nigel Farage’s party is now polling more than Labour and the Tories combined. FindOutNow asked voters who they would back at the election, and found Reform now sits well ahead of all other parties on 34% of the vote.

A major political breakthrough for Reform UK has sent shockwaves through Salford after the party secured its first-ever seat on Salford City Council in a closely contested by-election. The historic victory represents another important moment for Nigel Farage’s growing political movement and raises fresh questions about Labour’s traditional dominance in parts of northern England.

For a city that has long been associated with Labour politics, the result is particularly significant. Reform UK managed to defeat its Labour rival in a contest that went down to a remarkably narrow margin, demonstrating that the political landscape in traditionally safe Labour territory may be changing.

The winning candidate, Michael Felse, secured 676 votes, narrowly beating Labour candidate Catherine Goodyer, who received 643. The Green Party finished third with 363 votes, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were left further behind.

The difference between the two leading candidates was just 33 votes.

For Reform UK, this was more than an ordinary local election victory. It was an opportunity to establish a political presence in a city where the party had previously struggled to gain representation.

And for Nigel Farage, the result provided another example of how dissatisfaction with the established political parties could create opportunities for Reform.

A Historic Victory in Traditionally Labour Territory

The by-election took place in the Barton and Winton ward following the death of long-serving Labour councillor David Lancaster.

The constituency had previously been considered a difficult area for Reform UK to win. Labour had enjoyed a strong position locally, and the party had traditionally benefited from longstanding political loyalties among residents.

However, the latest result demonstrated that those loyalties should no longer be taken for granted.

Michael Felse managed to build enough support to defeat Labour despite the party’s established presence in the area.

His victory also followed a tense recount, making the final announcement particularly dramatic.

For Reform supporters, the result offered encouragement that the party could compete successfully in areas where Labour had historically enjoyed considerable electoral strength.

The victory also gave Reform its first representative on Salford City Council.

Felse described the achievement as making history and expressed his hope that more Reform councillors would join him following subsequent local elections.

That ambition reflects the party’s wider strategy: establish a stronger local presence, develop its political organisation and gradually challenge Labour’s traditional support across northern England.

Why This Result Matters to Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage has spent years arguing that Britain’s political establishment is increasingly disconnected from ordinary people.

His central political message has focused on the belief that voters are becoming frustrated with traditional parties and are searching for a different political direction.

Reform UK has attempted to transform that dissatisfaction into electoral support.

The Salford victory provides an important example of that strategy producing a tangible result.

Although winning one council seat does not automatically indicate a major national political transformation, it demonstrates that Reform can compete in areas where Labour once appeared particularly difficult to challenge.

This could become increasingly important as the party prepares for future local and national elections.

Farage wants Reform to be seen not simply as a protest movement but as a serious political alternative capable of winning representation throughout the country.

Every successful local campaign strengthens that argument.

The challenge now is to demonstrate that the party can maintain its support and deliver improvements for the communities it represents.

Labour Faces Difficult Questions

The defeat will inevitably raise questions about Labour’s political position in Salford.

For decades, Labour has maintained a powerful connection with communities across Greater Manchester.

However, political loyalty cannot be assumed indefinitely.

Residents may support a party for generations, but local concerns can eventually become more important than historical political affiliations.

During the Barton and Winton campaign, Felse highlighted issues including litter, potholes and concerns about investment in local facilities.

These are everyday problems that directly affect residents.

People want clean streets, properly maintained roads, reliable services and visible improvements in their neighbourhoods.

They also want local representatives who understand the problems they encounter.

The Reform candidate argued that residents were frustrated by the condition of parts of the area and believed that greater attention should be given to basic local priorities.

His victory suggests that these concerns deserve serious consideration.

Labour cannot simply dismiss the result as an isolated incident.

Even a narrow defeat can provide an important warning about the need to maintain public confidence.

A 33-Vote Margin That Could Have Changed Everything

One of the most remarkable aspects of the election was just how close the contest became.

With only 33 votes separating Reform and Labour, a relatively small number of different voting decisions could have produced another outcome.

The result also highlighted the importance of local campaigning.

In a national election, voters may make decisions based on party leaders, television appearances and major political issues.

In a council by-election, however, personal relationships, neighbourhood concerns and the visibility of individual candidates can play a much greater role.

Candidates must convince residents that they understand the specific problems affecting their communities.

Felse’s campaign focused on local conditions and the need for improvements in Barton and Winton.

That message appears to have helped him secure enough support to cross the finishing line ahead of Labour.

The result is a reminder that local politics can sometimes deliver surprises that national opinion polls cannot fully capture.

Reform’s Wider Ambitions in Greater Manchester

The victory could also have wider significance for Reform UK across Greater Manchester.

The region has traditionally been one of Labour’s strongest political areas.

However, Reform has been attempting to expand its presence by targeting voters who are dissatisfied with the government’s performance.

Greater Manchester contains communities with different economic circumstances, political traditions and priorities.

Some residents are concerned about immigration and public spending. Others are more focused on housing, transport, employment and the quality of public services.

Reform will need to demonstrate that it understands these different concerns if it wants to establish a lasting presence.

Winning one seat is an important first step, but maintaining political momentum will require considerably more work.

The party must identify capable local candidates, build relationships with residents and demonstrate that its councillors can deliver practical results.

If it succeeds, Salford could become an important starting point for further political expansion.

The Conservatives Are Also Feeling the Pressure

While Labour suffered the most direct setback, the result also highlighted the difficulties facing the Conservatives.

The Conservative candidate received just 118 votes, finishing fourth in the contest.

This reflects the increasingly complicated political environment facing the party.

For years, the Conservatives and Labour dominated British electoral competition.

However, Reform’s emergence has created a new challenge, particularly among voters who favour stricter immigration controls and a different approach to government spending.

Farage has repeatedly attempted to attract former Conservative voters who believe the party failed to deliver on its promises.

The Salford result demonstrates that Reform is also capable of competing against Labour in traditionally left-leaning areas.

This could make the party’s electoral ambitions even more significant.

Rather than simply replacing the Conservatives as the main party of the political right, Reform wants to build support across a much wider section of the electorate.

What Happens Next for Michael Felse?

Winning the election is only the beginning of the challenge for the newly elected councillor.

Felse now faces the responsibility of representing residents in Barton and Winton and responding to the concerns raised during the campaign.

The issues he highlighted, including litter, potholes and local investment, will provide important tests of his ability to deliver.

Residents will want to see whether his promises translate into visible improvements.

His position also carries additional political significance because he initially became Reform’s only representative on Salford City Council.

That means his performance could influence how residents perceive the party’s ability to participate in local government.

If he succeeds in building a positive relationship with the community, Reform could use the experience to strengthen its position in future campaigns.

If expectations are not met, the party could face difficult questions about whether its local promises were realistic.

The next election will therefore be particularly important.

A Warning for the Traditional Political Establishment

The Salford by-election should not be interpreted as proof that Labour has permanently lost control of its traditional heartlands.

The contest involved one council seat, and the winning margin was extremely narrow.

Nevertheless, its political significance should not be underestimated.

Reform has demonstrated that it can win in an area where Labour previously enjoyed considerable strength.

That creates a challenge for the established parties.

Labour must reconnect with voters who feel that their concerns are not receiving sufficient attention.

The Conservatives must rebuild their reputation and explain why former supporters should return.

Meanwhile, Reform must prove that it can turn electoral breakthroughs into lasting political representation.

For Nigel Farage, the result provides another opportunity to argue that British politics is entering a new era.

His party has secured its first-ever Salford council seat, and its supporters will hope this is only the beginning.

Whether that victory becomes part of a much larger political transformation remains to be seen.

But the message from Barton and Winton is clear: traditional political loyalties are being challenged, and no party can assume that previously safe territory will remain safe forever.

For Labour, the defeat is an uncomfortable warning.

For Reform UK, it is a historic breakthrough.

And for Farage, it is another reason to believe that his political movement has the potential to reshape Britain’s electoral landscape.