You can tell a lot about a man by the risks that he takes, and Andy Burnham is one of modern politics’ great gamblers. The Prime Minister is living as if Nigel Farage and Reform UK do not pose a mortal danger to his party and his premiership. Sir Keir Starmer arrived in Downing Street with a massive majority but talked as if Mr Farage was on the verge of grabbing control of Britain. Like a plant under hydroponic lighting, Reform flourished with the attention, shooting to the top of the polls.

Mr Burnham has no intention of handing the insurgent party millions of pounds’ worth of airtime. In his recent conference speech, the six times he mentioned “reform” were in the context of reforming social care, the energy market, Right to Buy, leasehold rules and the electoral system. But the PM is not only denying Reform the fertiliser of publicity, he is governing as if it does not threaten to oust Labour from multitudes of its heartland constituencies. This is despite an analysis in September by More in Common finding Reform is on course to take 95 seats from Labour.

A Labour leader who lay awake at night worrying about Mr Farage would not talk in public about his desire to see Britain return to the EU as a member state. At this month’s EU-UK summit in Brussels he is expected to agree to take rules from the bloc on food standards to avoid customs checks. He is betting Britain will not see this as a shameful surrender of sovereignty.

Despite fierce pressure to invest in the armed forces, Mr Burnham refuses to be rushed into coming up with the cash to upgrade the military – even though there are constant reports about the growing threat from Russia. Most notably, Labour has scrapped its plan to make care workers from overseas in this country wait longer to get the right to live here permanently. The measures originally put forward by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood would have allowed the PM to claim he was tackling the future multi-billion pound cost to the taxpayer of the “Boriswave” era of post-Brexit migration.

This signals Mr Burnham is more worried about rebellions in his own ranks than attacks from Reform. It suggests he is increasingly confident that if he kindles goodwill on the wider Left then tactical voting will deny Reform victories and deliver him another term as PM.

Not long ago, there were warnings that then-Mayor of Greater Manchester Mr Burnham would lose to Reform if he stood in a by-election. He won Leave-voting Makerfield by 9,231 votes – did this convince him he can defeat Reform in a national contest? Reform has a mighty war chest and devoted footsoldiers, while Mr Burnham presides over an economy beset with inflation. The challenge for Mr Farage is to convince voters they cannot take the risk of giving Labour another term.

Perhaps it is down to distant memories of the Norman invasion, but it is disconcerting when you discover one of the greatest national treasures is quite French. Dame Kristin Scott Thomas has been adored since 1994’s Four Weddings and a Funeral but she secured superstar status with her screen-capturing performance as the head of MI5 in Slow Horses. She has now won a position in public life bordering on royalty as the star of this year’s John lewis Christmas advertisement.

She epitomises poised English elegance. The fact she is also treasured by the French is like discovering the Bayeux Tapestry was spun in Somerset.

She trained at one of France’s most prestigious theatre schools, had major roles in French language films, is a Chevalier of the Légion d’honneur and lived there for 42 years. When asked in her most recent Times interview whether she feels more English or French, she said: “I still feel completely in the middle. Choosing one is like abandoning one child to pick another.” Before Andy Burnham heads to Brussels this month to strike a deal with the EU he should enlist her as part of his negotiating team. Not only can she switch effortlessly between languages, her Slow Horses role gives her a brilliant understanding of spycraft and opportunities for ruthless power machinations.

The danger for Mr Burnham, of course, is that if Britons sees her by his side they might conclude they would rather have her running the country.

When I heard that “mogging” has been crowned word of the year by the Collins English Dictionary I wondered what Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg had been up to that merited the creation of a brand new verb. Apparently it derives from an acronym in bodybuilding culture – AMOG – which stands for “Alpha Male Of the Group”. Now it means “the act of outshining or outperforming someone or something”.

Sir Jacob may or may not pump iron but it can be argued the Moggster is a “mogging king”. A multitude of fellow Conservatives lost their seats in the disastrous 2024 election and have vanished – and many new Tory MPs have yet to make any indentation on national life. But Sir Jacob has harnessed an arsenal of digital technology to make the case of classical conservativism in the 21st century. For the Tories to win back the country in time for the next election, his comrades need to communicate with the same conviction and optimism.

A couple and their delightful daughters ventured to California this summer and were enchanted by the coastal beauty, the wonder of the national parks and the hospitality of the locals. But while in an otherwise lovely area they were taken aback to see on the wall of public toilets – in much the way we see defibrillators dotted along high streets – a box of medicine to give to anyone in the throes of an overdose.

The chaos, rage and acrimony of recent American history has unfolded against the backdrop of a terrifying opioid crisis – around 105,000 people died of “drug-involved overdose” in 2023 – which has brought addiction and sudden bereavement to hundreds of thousands of families across this mighty nation.

Seventy years ago today, British paratroopers dropped on Egypt’s El Gamil airfield as the Suez Crisis reached a new intensity. Britain and France’s military successes were followed by humiliation when a furious President Dwight Eisenhower forced a withdrawal.

The US threatened to devalue the pound by selling sterling bonds; the sun sank on the UK’s imperial age and the country learned it could not count on American support for military adventures. Seven decades on, with US commitment to NATO uncertain and Britain’s economy threatened by Middle East turmoil, we are still living in the Suez age.

Andy Burnham’s High-Stakes Gamble on Nigel Farage Is About to Blow Up in His Face

Andy Burnham may have made the biggest political gamble of his premiership by choosing to reopen Britain’s relationship with the European Union. While the Prime Minister believes closer ties with Brussels could improve the economy and strengthen Labour’s position, his strategy risks handing Nigel Farage exactly the political opportunity he has been waiting for.

The Reform UK leader has spent years building his political identity around Brexit, immigration and opposition to European integration. Now, with Burnham openly questioning the consequences of Britain’s departure from the EU and refusing to rule out a closer relationship with Brussels, Farage has been given an opportunity to return to familiar political territory.

For Labour, the danger is considerable. The party could find itself fighting an election dominated by precisely the issues that helped transform British politics during the Brexit referendum.

Burnham Reopens the Brexit Debate

Since becoming Prime Minister, Burnham has increasingly argued that Brexit has damaged Britain’s economic prospects.

He has criticised the consequences of leaving the European single market and suggested that closer economic cooperation could help address trade barriers, investment problems and the country’s sluggish economic growth.

His government is considering a range of options, including closer alignment with European standards, cooperation on food regulations and potentially deeper participation in European economic arrangements.

Burnham has also indicated that he would welcome Britain returning to the European Union during his political lifetime.

For supporters of closer European integration, this represents an opportunity to correct some of the economic damage associated with Brexit.

However, the political consequences could be considerably more complicated.

Brexit remains a deeply emotional issue for millions of voters, particularly in traditional Labour communities across northern England, the Midlands and parts of Wales.

Many of these constituencies voted Leave in 2016. They did not necessarily support every aspect of Brexit, but they wanted greater national control over immigration, trade and political decision-making.

Burnham risks reopening those divisions at a time when Labour should be concentrating on economic growth, public services and household living costs.

Nigel Farage Could Not Have Asked for a Better Opportunity

For Nigel Farage, the Prime Minister’s approach presents an attractive political opportunity.

Farage has spent much of his career campaigning against European integration. His political influence grew through his opposition to the European Union, his criticism of immigration policy and his ability to present himself as a challenger to the Westminster establishment.

He understands that Brexit is an issue on which he enjoys considerable political experience and a recognisable public identity.

The danger for Burnham is that Farage could turn the next general election into another referendum on Britain’s relationship with Europe.

Rather than allowing Labour to concentrate on its economic programme, Reform UK could force the government to defend every proposed agreement with Brussels.

Farage has already accused Burnham of attempting to take Britain gradually back into the European Union without giving voters a clear democratic choice.

He has argued that closer European integration could undermine national sovereignty and weaken Britain’s ability to control immigration.

Whether voters agree with every aspect of his argument is another matter. Politically, however, it provides Reform with a simple message that could resonate with people who remain uncomfortable with the direction of Labour’s European policy.

Immigration Is Labour’s Biggest Political Vulnerability

The most dangerous part of Burnham’s strategy may not be trade or economic regulation. It is immigration.

Freedom of movement was one of the most controversial aspects of Britain’s membership of the European Union.

For many Leave voters, regaining control over immigration was a central reason for supporting Brexit.

Any suggestion that Britain could eventually return to arrangements involving freedom of movement would therefore create an immediate political challenge for Labour.

Farage has repeatedly argued that closer relations with Brussels could lead to increased immigration and reduce Britain’s ability to determine its own border policies.

Recent polling cited in political commentary suggests that immigration remains a major concern for British voters.

One survey cited by the Daily Express found that 69 per cent of respondents considered immigration too high, while 41 per cent believed rejoining the EU would increase immigration.

These figures illustrate the political sensitivity of the issue, although attitudes towards immigration and EU membership are not necessarily identical.

Burnham must therefore explain exactly what closer European cooperation would mean for immigration policy.

If he fails to provide convincing answers, Farage could exploit the uncertainty.

Labour’s Traditional Heartlands Could Become Vulnerable

Perhaps the greatest danger for Labour is the possibility that its European strategy could alienate voters in constituencies that have historically supported the party.

Many working-class communities voted Leave because they felt disconnected from political decision-making in London and Brussels.

Their concerns included immigration, pressure on public services, industrial decline and a sense that successive governments had failed to represent their interests.

Labour cannot assume that these voters will automatically support closer European integration simply because the party argues that Brexit has harmed economic growth.

For some voters, the issue is about democratic accountability rather than economic calculations.

They may accept that Brexit created trade difficulties while still believing that Britain should retain greater control over its immigration and regulatory policies.

This creates a complicated political challenge for Burnham.

He needs to demonstrate that closer cooperation with Europe can improve living standards without appearing to dismiss the concerns that motivated millions of people to vote Leave.

If Labour gets this balance wrong, Reform could make significant gains in constituencies that once formed the foundation of the party’s electoral success.

Farage Has His Own Problems to Overcome

However, it would be a mistake to assume that Burnham’s difficulties automatically guarantee a victory for Reform UK.

Farage faces several challenges of his own.

The party has experienced controversy surrounding candidate selection, internal organisation and questions about political donations.

The £5 million gift from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne has also attracted scrutiny, with the parliamentary standards commissioner investigating whether Farage should have declared the payment.

Reform must demonstrate that it can operate as a credible national political party rather than simply a protest movement built around its leader.

It also needs convincing policies on the economy, healthcare, education, defence and public services.

Voters may be attracted by Farage’s criticism of Labour, but winning a general election requires more than identifying the government’s weaknesses.

The party must demonstrate that it can deliver practical solutions to the country’s problems.

This is where Burnham may still have an opportunity to challenge Reform.

If Labour can improve public services, strengthen economic confidence and demonstrate tangible benefits from its European negotiations, Farage’s attacks may become less effective.

A Divided Labour Party Could Make Matters Worse

Another problem for Burnham is the possibility of internal disagreement.

Labour includes politicians with very different views about Brexit and Britain’s future relationship with Europe.

Some MPs strongly support closer integration, while others represent constituencies where Brexit remains politically sensitive.

There is also concern that reopening the question of EU membership could distract the government from its domestic programme.

The party did not campaign in the 2024 general election on a promise to take Britain back into the European Union.

Consequently, ministers must be careful not to create the impression that they are pursuing a fundamental constitutional change without a clear electoral mandate.

Any disagreement within the Cabinet or parliamentary Labour Party could provide additional ammunition for opposition politicians.

Burnham needs to maintain unity while explaining why his proposed approach would benefit the country.

The European Union Will Not Necessarily Give Britain Everything It Wants

There is another important obstacle that Burnham cannot ignore: Brussels has its own interests.

Britain cannot simply demand access to the benefits of European membership while rejecting the obligations that come with it.

Former EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has already warned that Britain cannot expect to select whichever parts of the single market it finds convenient.

Closer integration could involve difficult negotiations over regulatory alignment, financial contributions, immigration and the movement of goods and services.

These conditions could become politically uncomfortable for a government that wants to improve economic relations with Europe without appearing to reverse Brexit.

Farage will undoubtedly seek to highlight every concession made by the government during those negotiations.

The more complicated the agreement becomes, the easier it may be for Reform to present it as evidence that Labour is surrendering national control.

Conclusion: Burnham Could Be Playing Directly Into Farage’s Hands

Andy Burnham believes that rebuilding Britain’s relationship with Europe could help address the economic problems created by Brexit.

There is a reasonable argument that reducing trade barriers and improving cooperation with European partners could benefit British businesses and consumers.

However, the Prime Minister must recognise that the political consequences of reopening Brexit are potentially enormous.

Nigel Farage has spent years preparing for precisely this kind of argument. He knows how to turn disagreements over European integration into a wider debate about immigration, sovereignty and political accountability.

If Burnham allows the next election to become another referendum on Brexit, he could find himself fighting on territory where Farage has a considerable political advantage.

Nevertheless, Reform must still demonstrate that it has the organisation, policies and credibility required to govern.

The real test for Burnham will be whether he can deliver economic improvements without alienating voters who remain deeply concerned about immigration and national sovereignty.

His European gamble may yet produce economic benefits. But if it creates another prolonged political battle over Brexit, it could become one of the most damaging strategic mistakes of his premiership.

And Nigel Farage may be the politician who benefits most.