OPINION – JONATHAN SAXTY: So much for the messiah!
Andy Burnham’s bounce is now a slump. (Image: Getty)
The Burnham bounce is already giving way to the Burnham slump. King Andy may be on his nationwide magical mystery tour to see how his subjects are surviving after years of uniparty failure. But it seems – despite the softball interviews and media hype – his star is beginning to dim. More In Common may have had Labour still two points ahead of Reform in recent days, but YouGov gave Reform a two-point lead over Labour (six if Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain’s 4% all goes to Reform).
That reverses YouGov’s previous poll, while other pollsters have alternated between small leads for Reform and Labour since King Andy’s coronation as PM last month. Survation and Find Out Now do give Labour and Reform a statistical tie, which, while a modest improvement for Labour over earlier polls, is hardly Earth-shattering.
Not after an Establishment stitch-up and witch-hunt against Nigel Farage, at least. As such, the anointed one’s eclipse of Farage seems to have been something of a false dawn. Is 2% much of a lead anyway?
More interestingly, what impact will all this have on the prospect of an early election?
While rumours swirl of a May poll – and there remains widespread expectation Labour’s ratings will crash after the Budget – current polling is hardly encouraging for the PM.
As for the hapless Tories, they missed their chance. With no Shadow Cabinet shake-up this summer and policy announcements that merely amount to watered-down Reform pledges, it is little wonder their poll numbers are being revised back down to Earth.
The stench of hypocrisy hangs over them, too. For example, Reform recently highlighted the fact that Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has a history of backing ‘net zero’ despite a recent speech railing against it.
During her tenure as Secretary of State for Energy Security and net zero from 2023 to 2024, Coutinho said “nothing will distract us from achieving net zero” and “people look to the UK as a bit of a poster child when it comes to net zero”.
Reform Shadow Energy Secretary Richard Tice MP said in response: “Claire Coutinho was instrumental in growing the Department for net zero and famously said “nothing will distract us from achieving net zero”.
Her report today is a stunning admission that her disastrous mistake sent bills spiralling and has made working people poorer. The British people are still awaiting an apology from her. The Tory party can never be trusted again to fix the energy system they broke.”
But she is hardly an outlier. The Tories’ U-turn on their U-turns depends on how they think Reform can be outflanked. The problem is that after the ‘Boriswave’ and botching Brexit, most of us tuned out and switched off when the Tories started talking.
As for Andy Burnham’s Labour – rearranging deckchairs while the Titanic sinks – is it any wonder the bounce is winding up?
Maybe the social media videos will give the PM a second wind. Or maybe the honeymoon is well and truly over.